The 5 states with the lowest gay marriage support

[TDAS04]

Let's suppose that all 50 states voted on the same initiative to legalize gay marriage on the same day.  What 5 states would have the lowest percentages of voters voting in favor of legalization?

I would be quite surprised is Mississippi was not the lowest, and Alabama the second lowest.  I think that the remaining 3 could be any 3 of the following 5:  Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Louisiana.

[Blue3]

I think Nate Silver did an analysis of this back in 2008 or 2009, I'll try to find it.

[TDAS04]

I think Nate Silver did an analysis of this back in 2008 or 2009, I'll try to find it.

He did.  It seemed to be somewhat flawed, though, as much as I respect Silver.  His analysis had gay marriage gaining majority support in Minnesota the same year as Utah (2013), and a couple years after Idaho and Wyoming.

[Blue3]

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/mapping-gay-marriage/



http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/06/29/the-future-of-same-sex-marriage-ballot-measures/

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The map has Kentucky legalizing it in the late 2010s. I don't see it happening that quickly. It ought to, but it probably won't.

I don't see that much opposition to it anymore, but passing a constitutional amendment against it really gummed things up.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

His accelerated model was too pessimistic in Minnesota and Maryland, while his linear model was too optimistic in Washington and Maine. So clearly not rock solid in terms of predictive ability.

Assuming SCOTUS doesn't legalize it, I could see California and Oregon legalizing it by Proposition in 2014, and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota (again), and Montana in 2016.

[Sol]

I think the most interesting thing to see will be this- In 10 years or so, when a large majority of the population supports SSM, will West Virginia legalize it(assuming it is still under Democratic control.)?

[7,052,770]

I can't decide on what would make Mississippi look worse:

 - Mississippi is the last state to legalize gay marriage
 - The Supreme Court makes gay marriage legal nationwide this summer and the inevitable timeless photo of Phil Bryant trying to physically prevent a gay couple from applying for a marriage license.

Obviously I hope for #2, but King Phil will have to be locked up in the governor's mansion for a couple years.

[politicallefty]

I can't decide on what would make Mississippi look worse:

 - Mississippi is the last state to legalize gay marriage
 - The Supreme Court makes gay marriage legal nationwide this summer and the inevitable timeless photo of Phil Bryant trying to physically prevent a gay couple from applying for a marriage license.

Obviously I hope for #2, but King Phil will have to be locked up in the governor's mansion for a couple years.

The latter would almost be reminiscent of Governor Wallace blocking the schoolhouse door. The second option would indeed be better on account of the Supreme Court having recognized gay marriage as a fundamental right, but it would undoubtedly make Mississippi look worse than the former option.

As for the question here, I'd say the strongest opposition to gay marriage would be in Mississippi, Alabama, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and either South Carolina or Tennessee (probably in that order). If SCOTUS leaves the issue to the states, I really could never see those states legalizing marriage equality on their own. Just like the death penalty, the only way you'll get nationwide uniformity is through the Supreme Court or the amendment process.

[Benj]

I can't decide on what would make Mississippi look worse:

 - Mississippi is the last state to legalize gay marriage
 - The Supreme Court makes gay marriage legal nationwide this summer and the inevitable timeless photo of Phil Bryant trying to physically prevent a gay couple from applying for a marriage license.

Obviously I hope for #2, but King Phil will have to be locked up in the governor's mansion for a couple years.

I don't think you'd have the Governor refusing. But you'd have the inevitable "massive resistance" (analogy obviously intended) by state marriage bureaus in at least a few states--Mississippi probably among them. You might see some grandstanding by elected state judges who would refuse to acknowledge same-sex marriages, too. Then we might even see another Cooper v. Aaron kind of case in the Supreme Court.

[Ban my account ffs!]

His accelerated model was too pessimistic in Minnesota and Maryland, while his linear model was too pessimistic in Washington and Maine. So clearly not rock solid in terms of predictive ability.

Assuming SCOTUS doesn't legalize it, I could see California and Oregon legalizing it by Proposition in 2014, and Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota (again), and Montana in 2016.

A bill legalizing gay marriage is already being considered by the state senate, and will surely be taken up in the house.  I don't see any reason we won't have gay marriage by memorial day.

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana should be in that range. You think Mississippi is anti-gay marriage Indiana could rival them easily.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I feel like Mississippi will wind up passing a bill to legalize gay marriage sometime around 2080, as the nation guffaws.