Hypothetical gay marriage referendums: Guess the vote in these 10 states.

[old timey villain]

Let's say that today 10 states around America are holding statewide referendums on legalizing gay marriage. Neither side has campaigned or put out any advertisements, but citizens are aware of the referendums and are prepared to vote. Based on what you know about these states what will the percent voting "yes" be in each one?

Alabama
South Dakota
New Jersey
Georgia
Alaska
Ohio
Arizona
West Virginia
Oregon
Florida

(Many of these states have already held referendums but were several years ago)

[TNF]

Alabama: 39%
South Dakota: 40%
New Jersey: 55%
Georgia: 41%
Alaska: 48%
Ohio: 50%
Arizona: 40%
West Virginia: 35%
Oregon: 55%
Florida: 43%

[pbrower2a]

Let's say that today 10 states around America are holding statewide referendums on legalizing gay marriage. Neither side has campaigned or put out any advertisements, but citizens are aware of the referendums and are prepared to vote. Based on what you know about these states what will the percent voting "yes" be in each one?

Alabama
South Dakota
New Jersey
Georgia
Alaska
Ohio
Arizona
West Virginia
Oregon
Florida

(Many of these states have already held referendums but were several years ago)

From most likely same-sex marriage wins to losses:

New Jersey, Oregon -- about even
Ohio, Florida -- about even
Alaska
Arizona
Georgia
South Dakota
Alabama

[old timey villain]

Alabama 30% (Alabama is one of the most religious states in the country. Gay Marriage has not gained much traction here. Residents might see it less as a referendum on rights and more as an attempt to meddle in the culture of the area.)

South Dakota 45% (despite being a conservative state, it's less religious)

New Jersey 53% ( I think NJ would easily pass it)

Georgia 40% (similar to Alabama, but with a greater progressive influence in and around Atlanta. It would also do better than expected in some suburbs but would be demolished in most rural areas)

Alaska 43% (Alaska is a very libertarian state and I see it doing better than expected here)

Ohio 45% (I see it just shy of passing in Ohio. The Democratic base isn't progressive enough to carry it over the finish line)

Arizona 49% (I see a razor thin close result. Arizona has elected an openly bisexual congresswoman and their conservatism is focused more on immigration and being the anti-California than anything else)

West Virginia 40% (It probably does better in the northern half of the state than the southern end)

Oregon 52-55% (I see it having similar results to the referendum in Washington state. The white support would be about equal but less socially conservative minorities here)

Florida 45% (A good fight but not enough to pass. SE Florida and the cities would be all for it but North Florida would be a brick wall against the referendum passing statewide)

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Pass
Fail

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Alabama
29%

South Dakota
41%

New Jersey
62%

Georgia
37%

Alaska
48%

Ohio
48%

Arizona
45%

West Virginia
34%

Oregon
61%

Florida
47%

[TDAS04]

Considering the results from just a few months ago in MD (52%), ME (53%), and WA (54%):

Alabama-23%
South Dakota-37%
New Jersey-54%
Georgia-30%
Alaska-47%
Ohio-46%
Arizona-47%
West Virginia-35%
Oregon-52%
Florida-43%

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Considering the results from just a few months ago in MD (52%), ME (53%), and WA (54%):

Alabama-23%
South Dakota-37%
New Jersey-54%
Georgia-30%
Alaska-47%
Ohio-46%
Arizona-47%
West Virginia-35%
Oregon-52%
Florida-43%

The juxtaposition of these two things makes it seem like New Jersey is as socially liberal (or at least as accepting of gay marriage) as Washington state is, which is not the case.

[Benj]

Considering the results from just a few months ago in MD (52%), ME (53%), and WA (54%):

Alabama-23%
South Dakota-37%
New Jersey-54%
Georgia-30%
Alaska-47%
Ohio-46%
Arizona-47%
West Virginia-35%
Oregon-52%
Florida-43%

The juxtaposition of these two things makes it seem like New Jersey is as socially liberal (or at least as accepting of gay marriage) as Washington state is, which is not the case.

Sort of. NJ is definitely equally accepting of gay marriage. Your mistake is the common one of equating western Washington, in particular Seattle, with the state. Washington is far more polarized on social issues than NJ. It is extremely difficult to imagine any county in NJ voting 70% against gay marriage--or even 60% against gay marriage, really--like so many counties in eastern Washington did. NJ just doesn't have areas full of rural evangelicals, but Washington state does. I don't think any county in NJ would be 67% in favor of gay marriage, either, as King County (Seattle) was. But 54% overall is completely realistic here--maybe even with no county more than 60% either way.

[TDAS04]

Of course, those of you in New Jersey know it better than I do;  I've not been there.

My reasoning for guessing that it's as pro-gay marriage as Washington was that NJ is a heavily urban state on the East Coast and is used to diversity (lots of immigrants).  I would think that it would have some white suburban Republicans who support marriage equality.  After all, in Maryland, it passed in a couple of counties that voted for Romney.  I was a little surprised that Maryland passed gay marriage because of its large black/minority population on top of a conservative-tilting white population, but diversity and an urban population matter.

[Ebowed]

Alabama - 34%
South Dakota - 41%
New Jersey - 53%
Georgia - 38%
Alaska - 48%
Ohio - 47%
Arizona - 47%
West Virginia - 31%
Oregon - 54%
Florida - 44%

[Indy Texas]

South Dakota 45% (despite being a conservative state, it's less religious)

I believe South Dakota (along with North Dakota) has one of the highest rates of regular church attendance and belief in God in the country. But a lot of them are mainline Lutherans, who have generally preferred to keep their religion and their politics separate.

Gay marriage advocates in Alaska would probably get their preferred result the backdoor way (pun not intended) if they proposed a constitutional amendment to ban government from recognizing any kind of marriage and instead just gave civil unions to both gay and straight couples (marriage would be a private religious issue and churches could marry or not marry whoever they wanted). Combine the pro-gay marriage vote with the a large chunk of the "Get the government out of everything" vote and you could probably get above 50 percent. Though I'm sure the Duchess of Wasilla would strongly disapprove.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Alabama - 29%
South Dakota - 43%
New Jersey - 52%
Georgia - 38%
Alaska - 44%
Ohio - 46%
Arizona - 44%
West Virginia - 33%
Oregon - 53%
Florida - 45%

[Holmes]

Alabama: 27%
South Dakota: 41%
New Jersey: 54%
Georgia: 38%
Alaska: 39%
Ohio: 42%
Arizona: 44%
West Virginia: 36%
Oregon: 51%
Florida: 43%

[DemPGH]

For same sex marriage:

Alabama - 30% or under
South Dakota - 38%
New Jersey - 54% - to 56% (range)
Georgia - 42% - 44%
Alaska - Tough to call, I'll say 40% - 45%
Ohio - 46%
Arizona - 40% - 43%
West Virginia - 30% or under
Oregon - 52%
Florida - 47%, maybe 48%

But progress on this is being made. There's no question that every effort would be made to stir up the rural conservatives and the religious right to get them in a frenzy over it, but the real question is the folks who might be slightly against it personally but take a "live and let live" or "not my business" view.

[memphis]

Depends very much how the referendum is worded.