NH-WMUR/UNH: D: Clinton 63% Biden 10%; R: Christie 14% Rubio 12% Ryan 11%

[Mr. Morden]

WMUR/UNH 2016 primary poll of New Hampshire:

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/gsp2013_winter_primary021413.pdf

Dems:

Clinton 63%
Biden 10%
Cuomo 5%
Booker 2%
Bayh 1%
Patrick 1%
Schweitzer 1%
Hickenlooper, O'Malley, Villaraigosa, Warner <1%

GOP:

Christie 14%
Rubio 12%
Ryan 11%
Ayotte 10%
Rand Paul 8%
Huntsman 8%
Bush 5%
Santorum 3%
Walker 3%
Jindal 2%
Cruz 1%
Thune 1%
Portman 0%

They also inverted the question and asked "which of the candidates [in your party] would you NOT vote for under any circumstance?

Dems:

Biden 7%
Patrick 6%
Clinton 4%
Bayh 3%
Cuomo 3%
Booker 2%
Villaraigosa 2%
Warner 2%
Schweitzer 1%
Hickenlooper, O'Malley <1%

GOP:

Santorum 11%
Ayotte 6%
Bush 6%
Christie 6%
Rand Paul 6%
Huntsman 4%
Portman 3%
Jindal 2%
Ryan 2%
Walker 2%
Rubio 1%
Cruz 1%
Thune 1%

[Mr. Morden]

favorability/unfavorability among members of their own party:

Dems

Clinton 87/7% for +80%
Biden 73/22% for +51%
Cuomo 56/16% for +40%
Patrick 52/22% for +30%
Booker 31/11% for +20%
Bayh 20/7% for +13%
Villaraigosa 15/9% for +6%
Schweitzer 12/6% for +6%
O'Malley 9/6% for +3%
Hickenlooper 8/7% for +1%
Warner 14/14% for +/-0

GOP

Rubio 56/6% for +50%
Ayotte 68/24% for +44%
Ryan 61/19% for +42%
Christie 60/21% for +39%
Walker 37/14% for +23%
Bush 53/31% for +22%
Rand Paul 45/26% for +19%
Jindal 31/21% for +10%
Huntsman 37/31% for +6%
Portman 20/14% for +6%
Cruz 18/14% for +4%
Thune 16/13% for +3%
Santorum 40/42% for -2%

On the GOP side, among the top four of Christie/Rubio/Ryan/Ayotte, who leads among....

Republicans: Christie
Independents: Rubio
conservatives: Rubio
moderates: Christie
support Tea Party: Rubio
neutral on Tea Party: Ayotte
oppose Tea Party: Christie
age 18-34: Ayotte
age 35-49: Christie
age 50-64: Christie
age 65+: Rubio
men: Christie
women: Ryan
1st CD: Ryan
2nd CD: Christie

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Evan Bayh got a few votes? Retro.

[mattyman]

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It does me good to see Santorum leading the pack on this poll. Don't even bother running Rick.

[Maxwell]

I am sincerely surprised and happy that Huntsman is at 8%. I thought the guy would've been at like, 0%, considering how much he has done to push himself away from the GOP. Also GO CHRISTIE.

It's a little bit unnerving, i'm sure, for Patrick's "I would never vote for him" percentage to be SIX TIMES the people who are actually wanting him.

[Nichlemn]

Not very good for Christie. This is the sort of state he'd need to win comfortably in order to win the nomination.

[morgieb]

Not very good for Christie. This is the sort of state he'd need to win comfortably in order to win the nomination.

Yeah my thoughts. Thought he'd be up around the 40's.

[Nichlemn]

Not very good for Christie. This is the sort of state he'd need to win comfortably in order to win the nomination.

Yeah my thoughts. Thought he'd be up around the 40's.

Well that's a bit unrealistic, but you'd at least think he could get to 20%. Mind you, Ayotte, Huntsman and others that are unlikely to run are included with significant support, and most of their voters would probably go for Christie.

[Mr. Morden]

Not very good for Christie. This is the sort of state he'd need to win comfortably in order to win the nomination.

Yeah my thoughts. Thought he'd be up around the 40's.

Well that's a bit unrealistic, but you'd at least think he could get to 20%. Mind you, Ayotte, Huntsman and others that are unlikely to run are included with significant support, and most of their voters would probably go for Christie.

PPP polled a smaller group of candidates in NH in November, and Christie got 21%:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164396.0

Of course, that one also had Rice, who's unlikely to run.  Still, I doubt Christie would do that much better than ~20%, even in a poll that included a more realistic field of candidates.  He still has a long way to go before matching the ~40% support that Romney had in New Hampshire in those 2009 and 2010 polls.

[Likely Voter]

The problem with all these early horse-race polls is that they have different fields of candidates. The more interesting info is with regards to the name favorability ratings.

And adding together the favorable and unfavorable gives you an idea how how well known each candidate is (at least known enough to have an opinion about them)...

GOP

Ayotte 92%
Bush 84%
Santorum 82%
Rand Paul 81%
Christie 81%
Ryan 80%
Huntsman 68%
Rubio 62%
Jindal 52%
Walker 51%
Portman 38%
Cruz 32%
Thune 29%


Dems

Biden 95%
Clinton 94%
Patrick 74%
Cuomo 72%
Booker 42%
Warner 28%
Bayh 27%
Villaraigosa 24%
Schweitzer 18%
Hickenlooper 15%
O'Malley 14%

[Eraserhead]

Disastrous numbers for Rand Paul.

[Mr. Morden]

Disastrous numbers for Rand Paul.

Note the date I posted this poll.  It's a month old, from well before the filibuster.

[Eraserhead]

Disastrous numbers for Rand Paul.

Note the date I posted this poll.  It's a month old, from well before the filibuster.

Still terrible numbers for a Paul in New Hampshire.