O.k., let's take a more systematic approach, by comparing 2008 and 2012 exit polls. Overall the white vote was swinging 4% against Obama (43 % in 2008, 39% in 2012):
Region & Gender:Whites overall: Males 41 / 35 / -6, Females 46 / 42/ -4
CT: Whites 51/51/ --; Males 53/ 51/ -2, Females 66/63/ -3
MA: Whites 59/57/ -2; Males 56/ 55/ -1, Females 68/65/ -3
There is a pretty good chance that
white men in Connecticut, probably also in other
parts of New England, have swung towards Obama.
IA: Whites 51/51/ --; Males 50/ 55/ -6, Females 55/59/ +4
WI: Whites 54/48/ -6; Males 53/ 47/ -6, Females 60/57/ - 3
OH: Whites 46/41/ -5; Males 51/ 45/ -6, Females 53/55/ +2
White women in Iowa should have swung to Obama. For other parts of the Mid-West, the data is less clear, but if there have been local swings to Obama, they should primarily have occured among females.
VA: Whites 39/37/ -2; Males 51/ 47/ -4, Females 53/54/ +1
NY: Whites 52/49/ -3; Males 59/ 58/ -1, Females 67/68/ +1
NJ: Whites 49/43/ -6; Males 56/ 55/ -1, Females 58/62/ +4
AZ: Whites 40/36/ -4; Males 45/ 43/ -2, Females 45/50/ +5
While in these states white women overall probly swung lightly against Obama, certain sub-groups of them may have swung towards him.
All other states covered in the exit polls (including CA, FL, PA, CO) either had a white swing against Obama of five points and more, or did not show markable gender difference, or both.
Whites by age:18-29 54 / 44 / -10
30-44 41 / 38 / -3
45-64 42 / 38 / -4
65+ 40 / 39/ -1
Since there was little swing among seniors, and higher white male than white female swing against Obama, I interfere that
white senior women have probably swung slightly towards Obama. In the following states, Seniors (all races) trended towards Obama: NY (+4), NJ (+1), CT (+10 against 2004, no 2008 data), NH (-1), IA (+1), NV (+2), VA (), OH ().
In the 30-44 age-group, whites only swung lightly against Obama. This age group (all races) swung towards Obama in the following states: NY (), CA (+1), NJ (), IA (+4), PA (+4), VA (+3), OH (), FL (+3), NC (+3), IN (+1). Considering that the heaviest swings against Obama occured in small cities and suburbs, I interfere that
urban whites aged 30-44, and especially females, in the North-East and in the Mid-West are likely to have swung towards Obama.
ReligionWhite Catholics: 47 / 40 / -7
White non-evangelical Protestants: 44 / 44 / --
White born-again / evangelical 26 / 20 / -6
Jews (all races) 78 / 68 / -9
Unaffiliated (all races) 75 / 70 / -5
The figures speak for themselves: Obama did not lose among white non-evangelical protestants, so
white non-evangelical protestant women have most likely swung towards him. This should also be a key factor for Obama's relative strength among whites in the North-East and the Mid-West.
A last observation: Parents (all races) only swung slighly away from Obama:
Mothers 57 / 56 / -1
Fathers 47 / 45 / -2
Women, no kids 57 / 54 / -3
Men, no kids 52 / 47 / -5
Here, I need somebody more familiar with American demographics to clarify whether this pattern is primarily due to ethnic differences (e.g. higher parental rate among Latinos), or may be used to interfere on white voting nehaviour.