Home State Effects

[Skill and Chance]

How much do we think home states will matter in the 2016 race?  There are a few candidates with some very interesting possibilities to shake up the map in a close race:

1. Does Rubio or Jeb Bush take FL out of play for Democrats?
2.  Would Warner take VA off the table for Republicans?
3. Would Schweitzer be favored to win MT?  Would it be a toss up?
4.  Would Ryan be favored to win WI?
5.  Is AR a toss up with Clinton?
6. Can Cuomo get to 2/3rds of the vote in NY?


Edit: added #6.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Probably
Yes
Yes
No
Yes

[DC Al Fine]

Yes
Yes
Yes & Yes
No, but he could make it close
No
Yes

[paul718]

1. Does Rubio or Jeb Bush take FL out of play for Democrats?
Yes.

2.  Would Warner take VA off the table for Republicans?
Yes.

3. Would Schweitzer be favored to win MT?  Would it be a toss up?
Schweitzer.

4.  Would Ryan be favored to win WI?
No.

5.  Is AR a toss up with Clinton?
No.  Solid R.

6. Can Cuomo get to 2/3rds of the vote in NY?
Yes.

[pbrower2a]

How much do we think home states will matter in the 2016 race?  There are a few candidates with some very interesting possibilities to shake up the map in a close race:

1. Does Rubio or Jeb Bush take FL out of play for Democrats?
2.  Would Warner take VA off the table for Republicans?
3. Would Schweitzer be favored to win MT? 
4.  Would Ryan be favored to win WI?   
5.  Is AR a toss up with Clinton? 
6. Can Cuomo get to 2/3rds of the vote in NY?

1. Yes, barring scandals.
2. Yes.
3. Definitely.
4. NO!!! - if he couldn't flip Wisconsin in 2012 he won't do so in 2016.
5. Probably. It's a question of whether Hillary still has connections to Arkansas.
6. Easily.