Which of the 50 states are likely to secede from the US?

[5280]

If it were to happen, which of the 50 states are the first ones to secede from the United States?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Won't happen but the correct answer is either Alaska or Hawaii.

[DemPGH]

I don't think any are likely to secede at all, it's mostly blowing off steam, but as I understand it there really is a push amongst groups in Texas. Rick Perry has had to address it because evidently there are enough petitions to start the process if the state of TX were to wish to secede. They don't. But there are a lot of people who want to.

But this brings up something I've been wondering. What are states actually seeking in secession? Do they want to become like a dukedom where they are affiliated with but largely independent from the mainland? Kind of like how Normandy used to be in regard to France. Or do they want to just go off and form their own - gasp - country. If that's the case, that could be very scary. I could easily see some of those states left to their own becoming the Christian version of one of the Islamic countries, for e.g., maybe not as bad as Saudi Arabia or Iran, but nonetheless oppressive.

[Kitteh]

Hawaii actually has a legitimate claim for secession.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The 10 most likely in no particular order would probably be:

1. Alaska
2. Hawaii
3. California
4. Texas
5. Vermont
6. Washington
7. Oregon
8. Montana
9. New Hampshire
10. South Carolina

[politicus]

Hawaii is culturally different, far away from the mainland and has a legimtimate claim, they could reestablish the monarchy, but there areprobably too few native Hawaiians for this to happen.
Alaska has the natural resources to make it on their own and are geographically separated.
Texas could easily function as a separate country and some groups support that. Also a history of being an independent republic.

My best guess is Alaska. They could form a monetary union with Canada if they wanted to sewer any ties to the US.
Hawaii would be inclined to keep the US dollar since their economy is too fragile.

[anvi]

I agree with drj's and politicus' statements about Hawai'i, legitimacy and challenging demographics that might stand in the way of that state leaving the union.

Realistically, I don't think any states are likely to secede at all.  But the very idea of some of those who have filed petitions to this effect that their states should secede because the preferred candidate of some of their aggrieved residents lost a nationwide democratic election is asinine.  Really asinine.   

[Vosem]

Alaska has had an independence movement basically ever since it became a state (the Alaskan Independence Party actually successfully elected a Governor in 1990, though that was more due to weird circumstances than actual support for secession), making it the likeliest. Hawaii seems like the obvious choice, being far away from everyone else and different culturally, but to my knowledge there is basically no group supporting Hawaii secession. There has been an upsurge of interest in the idea of secession recently throughout the South generally and Texas specifically, but that's basically blowing off steam.

In other words: Alaska.

[Badger]

Ain't gonna happen, but IF It did it'd be a near tie with Alaska and Texas. TX was it's own country once after all. And unlike AK they have a governor who has actually supported (albeit PROBABLY not seriously) succession in the last couple years.

Gov. Wally Beckel's 90 election under the AIP banner had zilch to do with Alaskan Independence and everything to do with a civil war in the AK GOP. Beckel, who previously served as governor as a Republican, was essentially drafted to stop the proto tea party radical wing that won the nomination that year, and explicitly objected to the AIP's platform of independence. He made some standard Alaska poolitics noises about repudiating federal interference with state issues (I.e. keep sending us two dollars in pork for every dollar in taxes we pay) so the AIP made a devil's deal with Beckel to get a permanent foothold in state elections. Considering Beckel was the last major figure known in the AIP until Todd Palin we can see how well that worked. It's kind of like when Mukowski lost the primary to miller two years agoo and there was talk of her adopting the Libertarian Party line instead of as an Independent to ensure ballot access.

EDIT: I'm not sure where the hawaii discussion comes from. There is a Hawaiian independence movement but, unlike the Native Hawaiian advocacy groups (NOT the same thing), my understanding is it is quite tiny. Kinda to the point of making the AIM appear a political juggernaut by comparison.

[They not like us]

[1] Texas
[2] Hawaii
[3] Alaska
[4] California
[5] Washington

[justfollowingtheelections]

You people really have no idea what you're talking about with regards to Hawaii.  Hawaii isn't culturally different than the mainland.

[politicus]

You people really have no idea what you're talking about with regards to Hawaii.  Hawaii isn't culturally different than the mainland.

Maybe not so much Honolulu, but I visited the islands four years ago: Molokai (very different from mainstream), Oahu, Maui and Hawaii (far side of the island feels quite "un-American").
It just feels different with the huge Asian influence. The culture seems more community based, less individualistic, and more attached to the land than mainland US and things like the cuisine is different.
Could you elaborate more on why you think Hawaii is not different because I think most people would consider it different.

[frihetsivrare]

Alaska
Vermont
Texas
Hawaii
Oregon
Washington
California
Montana

[Holmes]

Texas has its own power grid, right? So...

[justfollowingtheelections]

You people really have no idea what you're talking about with regards to Hawaii.  Hawaii isn't culturally different than the mainland.

Maybe not so much Honolulu, but I visited the islands four years ago: Mokolai (very different from mainstream), Oahu, Maui and Hawaii (far side of the island feels quite "un-American").
It just feels different with the huge Asian influence.

Molokai is different, but the urban centers, especially Honolulu are no different than the rest of the country.  Sure, we have a different ethnic composition, but people watch the same tv shows, eat the same food, worship the same gods, celebrate the same national holidays.  There's really nothing different.  Most people who come here for a few days feel it's different, but once you live here for awhile you realize the only differences are superficial.

There is more of an Asian influence, but I've found that influence on pretty much all big cities on the Pacific Coast, even in cities such as Portland that don't have many Asians.