Is this what 2008 would have looked like without the Crash?

[Skill and Chance]

I think so.  The thing I'm unsure of is whether Obama could have won FL pre-crisis.  VA might have been closer, too.

[Mr.Phips]

Yep.  I would take away Florida and maybe even Ohio, which is dicey.  Pretty sure he still would have won Colorado as most polls still had him ahead there and he outperformed final polls there.  Same with Virginia.  The Nevada polls showed McCain ahead by a hair in most instances, but Obama probably would have overperformed and one the state as Dems usualy do there.  Another state where the polls didnt seem to change much was Indiana.  He may have been able to win that anyway. 

[minionofmidas]

Quite reasonable.