Who will win Orange County, CA?

[cMac36]

No Dem has won it since LBJ's 1964 landslide FDR's 1936 landslide (Thanks to ElectionsGuy for correction)

Obama came close in 2008, losing by about 2.5%.  Romney won by about 6.2% in 2012.

[ElectionsGuy]

Actually, since FDR's 1936 24 point megaslide. Goldwater won it 56-44.

Clinton is in perfect condition to break the 80 year streak.

[CapoteMonster]

Clinton. Their are too many minorities in the OC and the place saw a big uptick in Democrat voter registration before the primary.

[cMac36]

Actually, since FDR's 1936 24 point megaslide. Goldwater won it 56-44.

Oh, dear Christ.  Thanks for the fact-check.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Clinton. Asians/Hispanics despise Trump more than Romney and they're only growing. I expect something like 49-47. Republicans are gonna have a hell of a time defending Southern California.


And wouldn't ya know it, the OC Register wrote this about 2 hours ago:

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-724744-republicans-democratic.html

[evergreenarbor]

Clinton could win with a plurality.

[cMac36]

Clinton could win with a plurality.

I could see this - Clinton 45 Trump 40 Johnson 10 Stein 5

Not that it matters but I was surprised to see Sanders do as well as he did in OC.  He lost by less than five.

[NOVA Green]

Clinton. Asians/Hispanics despise Trump more than Romney and they're only growing. I expect something like 49-47. Republicans are gonna have a hell of a time defending Southern California.


And wouldn't ya know it, the OC Register wrote this about 2 hours ago:

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/county-724744-republicans-democratic.html

Interesting article/analysis from the OC Register....

I'm tempted to say that this could well be the year that it flips.... although Trump outperformed his statewide numbers, you still have 11% that voted Kasich that have been the toughest nut to crack for Trump in consolidating the Republican base.

Most of the NPPs didn't request Dem or Rep ballots, but Dems beat the Reps significantly in the '16 primary total vote count, with many non-Trump supporters sitting it out.

I think there will likely be a significant surge of new voters once GE season heats up, with Dems and Dem leaning NPPs benefiting the most...

Trump's anti-immigrant rhetoric cuts both ways in OC in terms of mobilizing non-regular voters (Dem leaning) but also playing to the SoCal wealthier Anglo crowd that don't see any contradiction between putting up a giant wall to stop crime and illegal immigration, while simultaneously having everything from their landscaping, cleaning services, child care, and home renovation work performed by hard-working and long established local residents whose paperwork might well be out of status....

I'll go out on a limb and call it a narrow Hillary win 49-48-3 only because the Republican candidate will dramatically increase turnout of the Dem Base and some of the Kasich and Cruz Republicans will stay home...

[NOVA Green]

Clinton could win with a plurality.

I could see this - Clinton 45 Trump 40 Johnson 10 Stein 5

Not that it matters but I was surprised to see Sanders do as well as he did in OC.  He lost by less than five.

He actually won in many majority Latino areas and lost in heavily Anglo/Asian-American wealthier areas....

I haven't pulled the final precinct level data for OC, but there were some pretty interesting Dem Primary results in heavily Latino areas that didn't fit the "conventional wisdom" or narrative of Hillary dominating among AAs, Latinos, and Asian-Americans, and Bernie dominating the "Anglo" vote.

[cMac36]

Clinton could win with a plurality.

I could see this - Clinton 45 Trump 40 Johnson 10 Stein 5

Not that it matters but I was surprised to see Sanders do as well as he did in OC.  He lost by less than five.

He actually won in many majority Latino areas and lost in heavily Anglo/Asian-American wealthier areas....

I haven't pulled the final precinct level data for OC, but there were some pretty interesting Dem Primary results in heavily Latino areas that didn't fit the "conventional wisdom" or narrative of Hillary dominating among AAs, Latinos, and Asian-Americans, and Bernie dominating the "Anglo" vote.

Yes, Bernie did fine among Latinos.  The states with exit polls and a sizeable Latino population (NV, IL) basically showed him tying Clinton, with much the same age gap you saw with Whites (and Blacks).  The results from California suggest he tied her or even had a small victory among Latinos.  He did better than Obama '08 in LA County.

[Breton Racer]

Suburban, wealthy counties with highly educated populations will shift towards Clinton, Orange County is the perfect example of this, it will probably go 49-44 for Clinton, the first time a Democrat has carried the county since 1936.

[Senator Spark]

Clinton

[dspNY]

A true tossup county. Trump's nativist streak plays well with longtime white OC voters but the county has trended heavily Dem over the last 20 years and those voters detest Trump

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Actually, since FDR's 1936 24 point megaslide. Goldwater won it 56-44.

Oh, dear Christ.  Thanks for the fact-check.

OC in 1964 was a frightening place.  Home of the John Birch Society and the point of origin for the Far Right as we know it today.

Obama came within 3 points in 2008, and Clinton will win it, however.

[Sir Mohamed]

Still Trump. Narrowly.

No Dem has won it since LBJ's 1964 landslide FDR's 1936 landslide (Thanks to ElectionsGuy for correction)

Obama came close in 2008, losing by about 2.5%.  Romney won by about 6.2% in 2012.

CA was GOP leaning state in the 1960s and LBJ underperformed the national popular vote in the Golden State in 1964. He got "only" 59% statewide, compared to 61% nationally.

[Torie]

Clinton by 10 points. This will be one of Trump's worst areas when it comes to trend. It just doesn't have that many lower income whites left. And Trump will be stumped with the Asian vote. It's going to be brutal for him.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I think Trump's collapse among Hispanics and his weakness among the bourgeois college educated whites will lead to Hillary winning.

[Badger]

I think Trump's collapse among Hispanics and his weakness among the bourgeois college educated whites will lead to Hillary winning.

This, by a couple points.

[tallguy23]

I will die of laughter if a Clinton wins OC. I spent my childhood summers there and the utter contempt for the Clintons was out of control. Having said that, I think she'll win narrowly.

[President Johnson]

Clinton, but it will be close.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Clinton by 10 points. This will be one of Trump's worst areas when it comes to trend. It just doesn't have that many lower income whites left. And Trump will be stumped with the Asian vote. It's going to be brutal for him.

Do you think OC will go left of the nation?  It was +10 R in 2012 and 2008, +18 in 2004.  The demographics have only shifted by a few percent since the 2000 census (64% white to 62% white, 16% Asian to 18% Asian).

[Torie]

Clinton by 10 points. This will be one of Trump's worst areas when it comes to trend. It just doesn't have that many lower income whites left. And Trump will be stumped with the Asian vote. It's going to be brutal for him.

Do you think OC will go left of the nation?  It was +10 R in 2012 and 2008, +18 in 2004.  The demographics have only shifted by a few percent since the 2000 census (64% white to 62% white, 16% Asian to 18% Asian).

In 2008 it was 5.5% Pub in PVI. And yes, I see Trump losing nationally by about 10 points.