Douglas wins in 1860

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

what happens? Is there still a Civil War?

[Rob]

Probably. Southerners hated him almost as much as they hated Lincoln.

[PBrunsel]

The only way Douglas could have won is with a Democratic Compromise in Charleston, South Carolina. This compromise would had to have been allowing slavery to spread into the territories. If Douglas was elected off of this, no Civil War.

[Erc]

He dies in June 1861, and is succeeded by Herschel Johnson, former governor of Georgia (and, in real life, a delegate to the state's secession convention).

No Civil War, even if Breckinridge is still a factor in the election.  They didn't like Douglas, but they could tolerate him--he's a Democrat, after all.  Remember, unlike Lincoln, Douglas was a national candidate, and got votes in every state--so it's not the North forcing a candidate on the South by sheer numbers.

And even if a Civil War did happen, I'm sure Douglas would do his most to prevent it from happening and Johnson (assuming he didn't resign and head south) would certainly have settled it in June [yet another Civil War averted by a convenient death...the first being Taylor's in 1850].


With a division in the Democrats, it's impossible for Douglas to win outright.  He's simply not going to crack Lincoln in most of the North, or Breckinridge in any Southern state but Missouri.

His only hope was New York, that gigantic swing state of the 19th Century.  If he somehow takes it from Lincoln, Lincoln loses his EV majority, and propels himself in front of Bell (but not Breckinridge, unless he somehow wins Illinois, and Ohio or Indiana).

Then it goes to the House.  33 states in the Union (assuming Kansas hasn't sent its delegation yet).  As the West presumably has Democratic delegations of some sort, Lincoln won't be able to take it on the first ballot.  Presumably Douglas might be able to get the support of the Southern Delegations (in return for major concessions) and break the deadlock--thus giving him the Presidency without a Civil War (although the North would be seriously upset).

Of course, it's conceivable that Breckinridge might win in this case.  There are 15 states where he beat Douglas (all the slaveholding states but MO, plus OR).  If he can get the support of CA and MO (and assuming KS doesn't have a delegation in the new Congress as of yet--which would make things really messy), he has 17 states and the Presidency.

[minionofmidas]

He dies in June 1861, and is succeeded by Herschel Johnson, former governor of Georgia (and, in real life, a delegate to the state's secession convention).

No Civil War, even if Breckinridge is still a factor in the election.  They didn't like Douglas, but they could tolerate him--he's a Democrat, after all.  Remember, unlike Lincoln, Douglas was a national candidate, and got votes in every state--so it's not the North forcing a candidate on the South by sheer numbers.

And even if a Civil War did happen, I'm sure Douglas would do his most to prevent it from happening and Johnson (assuming he didn't resign and head south) would certainly have settled it in June [yet another Civil War averted by a convenient death...the first being Taylor's in 1850].


With a division in the Democrats, it's impossible for Douglas to win outright.  He's simply not going to crack Lincoln in most of the North, or Breckinridge in any Southern state but Missouri.

His only hope was New York, that gigantic swing state of the 19th Century.  If he somehow takes it from Lincoln, Lincoln loses his EV majority, and propels himself in front of Bell (but not Breckinridge, unless he somehow wins Illinois, and Ohio or Indiana).

Then it goes to the House.  33 states in the Union (assuming Kansas hasn't sent its delegation yet).  As the West presumably has Democratic delegations of some sort, Lincoln won't be able to take it on the first ballot.  Presumably Douglas might be able to get the support of the Southern Delegations (in return for major concessions) and break the deadlock--thus giving him the Presidency without a Civil War (although the North would be seriously upset).

Of course, it's conceivable that Breckinridge might win in this case.  There are 15 states where he beat Douglas (all the slaveholding states but MO, plus OR).  If he can get the support of CA and MO (and assuming KS doesn't have a delegation in the new Congress as of yet--which would make things really messy), he has 17 states and the Presidency.

That's only if Breckinridge gets the Southern ex-Whig delegations though, which I think is somehow unlikely...really a hung EC has two possible outcomes: A messy compromise that postpones the abolution of slavery even further with Douglas [or Bell] as president, or a civil war, likely without Congress ever managing to pick a president. Lincoln might even get selected by Congress after the Deep South has left the nation!
Douglas' reaction during the secession crisis was identical to Lincoln's.

[Erc]

Let's take a look at the composition of the Congress that would be deciding this race.  Looking at the 1859-1861 Congress (which would be the one deciding this race, presumably sometime in February)

In the first round of balloting:  [remember, 17 is the magic number]

Lincoln: 15 States (minimum):   MN/WI/IA/MI/IN/OH/PA/NJ/NY and New England.  These states are pretty secure in their support for Lincoln, with the possible exception of NJ (which the Republicans hold by a 3-2 lame duck margin).

Breckinridge: 12 States (minimum): All the states of the CSA (excluding TN), plus DE and OR.  [Again, assuming the Democrats follow the message of their electorate in the Douglas v. Breckinridge race--which is a very good assumption (with the exception of OR, where it probably comes down to the personal conscience of Mr. Lansing Stout).

Douglas:  3 States (minimum):  IL (which he holds over Lincoln by a narrow 5-4 margin), MO, and CA (again, assuming those two vote for him over Breckinridge).

Undecided:  The Three Bell States (KY/MD [1 vote margins in each over the Democrats], TN).

My personal guess is that the Constitutional Union states would go for Douglas (at least in the first ballot)--the Southern guys would make such a ruckus that voting for Lincoln would be out of the question (these are the guys who really don't want a Civil War).  And my guess is that they'd find Breckinridge unpalatable--although Breckinridge would only need one convert in KY or MD to switch the state.

In any event, you have Lincoln with 15, Breckinridge with 12-15, and Douglas with 3-6.

Strategies:

Lincoln.  On the face of it, the guy is in the best position to win this one.  He has 15 natural states, and only needs to convert two states.  In Illinois (which is his homestate after all [and, unfortunately, Douglas' as well]), he's only down 5-4.  All he needs to do is convince one of the Democrats to give up Douglas as a lost cause, and he's got the state.  Now, getting the other state is a bit tough.  The Bell states, for reasons mentioned above, would be really tough to get.  They might be fellow ex-Whigs, but even so...
The only chance of him peeling off a Bell State would be pulling some compromise with the South so that the Unionists know the South won't secede.

Missouri is a lost cause, as it would sooner defect to Breckinridge than Lincoln.  So he has to turn out West, and either take Oregon (a state which voted for Breckinridge more than Douglas, but has a New York native as its one representative) or California (who, in the Congress elected in 1858, had 2 Democrats originally from Missouri and Virginia, respectively (the latter fought for the Confederates in the Civil War)).

Breckinridge:  Needs 5 of the 6 Bell/Douglas states to win, and to hold onto Oregon.  Since Illinois is a completely lost cause, he needs to take the Bell States, Missouri, and California.  California, with its two Southerners in Congress, could be easily swayed.  In Maryland and Kentucky, he only needs to sway one vote to take the state.  Missouri, he needs to convince the Democrats there to vote for him.  Tennessee, he needs to sway a 7-3 Unionist majority to his side...but unless Douglas gains momentum, I'm sure they'd go along with it.

Douglas:  Needs to hold onto two states.  Illinois and one other.  Illinois prevents a Lincoln win, and anything else out there (OR/CA/MD/KY/TN, but not NJ) prevents Breckinridge from winning.  His best prospects are probably in Oregon (the state voted more for Breckinridge, but the guy's a Northerner by birth) and Missouri.  If he can hold onto those two states (heck, if all he does is hold onto Oregon, it's a 16-16-1), he controls the deciding votes.  Douglas' strategy is to appeal as a Compromise candidate...get some Southern states, and eventually win the support of either A) Lincoln and the Republicans (doubtful) B) the Southern Democrats and 2 former Whigs (doubtful), or C) various states from both sides, tired with the endless deadlock.

My personal prediction?  Lansing Stout, the 32 year-old Congressman for OR, makes the deciding vote in favor of Breckinridge.  Although if it goes on for long enough, Douglas could win...although I personally doubt it.

[minionofmidas]

Let's take a look at the composition of the Congress that would be deciding this race.  Looking at the 1859-1861 Congress (which would be the one deciding this race, presumably sometime in February)

In the first round of balloting:  [remember, 17 is the magic number]

Lincoln: 15 States (minimum):   MN/WI/IA/MI/IN/OH/PA/NJ/NY and New England.  These states are pretty secure in their support for Lincoln, with the possible exception of NJ (which the Republicans hold by a 3-2 lame duck margin).

Breckinridge: 12 States (minimum): All the states of the CSA (excluding TN), plus DE and OR.  [Again, assuming the Democrats follow the message of their electorate in the Douglas v. Breckinridge race--which is a very good assumption (with the exception of OR, where it probably comes down to the personal conscience of Mr. Lansing Stout).

Douglas:  3 States (minimum):  IL (which he holds over Lincoln by a narrow 5-4 margin), MO, and CA (again, assuming those two vote for him over Breckinridge).

Undecided:  The Three Bell States (KY/MD [1 vote margins in each over the Democrats], TN).

My personal guess is that the Constitutional Union states would go for Douglas (at least in the first ballot)--the Southern guys would make such a ruckus that voting for Lincoln would be out of the question (these are the guys who really don't want a Civil War).  And my guess is that they'd find Breckinridge unpalatable--although Breckinridge would only need one convert in KY or MD to switch the state.

In any event, you have Lincoln with 15, Breckinridge with 12-15, and Douglas with 3-6.

Don't forget that delegations needn't vote for anyone. You need a majority of Reps in a delegation to get its vote, as well as a majority of delegations to win.Border Dem delegations may well split.(I did this same thing once before, btw, about a year ago).

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[Erc]

Well, any state that splits has to have three candidates in the state receiving votes, I should think, as you don't need an absolute majority of all the Representatives in that state to carry the state ("a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states")...ie abstentions don't matter for the purposes of determining an in-state majority.

Three-way splits are possible in some of the northern border states (Ohio/PA/IN), perhaps...but the Republicans have too large of a majority for it to matter.

So unless Lincoln gets any of the Bell vote, no states are splitting.

MO:  The two Bell voters switched to Democrat later in their lives/were already considered "Independent Democrats," whatever that means.

KY:  At least one of the Bell voters later became a Democrat. [Note also that KY is Breckinridge's home state]

TN:  Of the Seven Whigs:

Reese Brabson died in 1863 of natural causes.  No real clue as to how he'd vote.
Emerson Etheridge ran against the Whig governor of Tennessee in 1867...so he presumably had become a Democrat by this time.
Robert Hatton was killed in the service of the Confederacy.  Not likely to vote Republican.
Horace Maynard:  Later became a Republican.
Thomas Nelson:  a staunch Unionist, but became a Democrat (a la Andrew Johnson) after the war.
James Quarles:  fought for the Confederacy.  Not likely to vote for Lincoln.
William Stokes:  fought in the Union Army and later became a Republican.

Likely final Tennessee vote:  7 Democrats of some shade or another, 2 Republicans, 1 Unknown.  If more than two of the non-Republicans vote for Douglas, then it's split...but Breckinridge would do his dardnest to get those votes, and would probably get them if need be.

Maryland--it's possible that a couple Bell voters could go Republican.

So, yeah, I'm probably overestimating the support Breckinridge would get in the border states.

But even if a state did split, it wouldn't propel anyone to the finish line, and would only prolong the continuous string of ballots.


If somehow Congress was still going on and on when March 4 came around, whoever the Senate picked as VP (and since there are only two candidates that the Senate can pick from [Hannibal Hamlin and Joseph Lane], there wouldn't be a similar deadlock).  My bet is on Joseph Lane--he's from Oregon, so he isn't really a Southerner, and up against Hamlin (a Radical Republican from Maine), could probably get most of the Democratic vote and the Southern Whigs as well.

And if Douglas somehow get through Congress, Lane would have the Presidency anyway after Douglas died.  Of course, if Douglas died while balloting was still continuing (he dies of exhaustion earlier due to all the backroom wrangling, let's say), then that would force a decision, probably for Lincoln [the 37th Congress was much more favorable to Lincoln--he gains California and Delaware, despite losing New Jersey, putting him only one state away from the win--whether it be Oregon, Illinois, or New Jersey--in each of which he only needs to get one vote away from Douglas.

[minionofmidas]

Well, any state that splits has to have three candidates in the state receiving votes, I should think, as you don't need an absolute majority of all the Representatives in that state to carry the state ("a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states")...ie abstentions don't matter for the purposes of determining an in-state majority.

Ah, sorry, mea culpa.

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What about Dem-controlled border states? These delegations could split too (unless all their Representatives are Democrats).
But even if a state did split, it wouldn't propel anyone to the finish line, and would only prolong the continuous string of ballots.

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I'd have to check Senate composition, but unless the Reps had a majority there, which I very much doubt, a Lane win is very much a given.