Most of the undecideds will not vote
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  Most of the undecideds will not vote
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Question: True or false?
#1
True
 
#2
False
 
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Total Voters: 36

Author Topic: Most of the undecideds will not vote  (Read 759 times)
Napoleon
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« on: October 27, 2012, 04:27:21 AM »

What does the 2012 board community think? Will those who are still undecided at this point even vote?
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politicus
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« Reply #1 on: October 27, 2012, 04:30:42 AM »

Most likely not, but in any election there is a group of people, who doesnt decide until they are in the voting booth.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #2 on: October 27, 2012, 10:15:04 AM »

The ones that do vote will probably vote mostly for Romney. If some decide on Obama, it's a decision for the status quo. And that means there's less of an impulse to actually go out and commit to a change.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #3 on: October 27, 2012, 10:16:11 AM »

Undecided likely voters are likely to vote, and of course by this time if you are not for Obama you will likely end up against him.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #4 on: October 27, 2012, 10:37:18 AM »

Undecideds will vote for the front-runner and whoever has momentum (or Mitt-mentum). 
They will vote for whoever has the lead in the national polls, and is likely to win.
No one wants to waste their vote on a losing candidate. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2012, 11:28:14 AM »

Barring a late-season collapse by the challenger (whether against an incumbent or a successor -- Dewey, Dukakis) undecided voters tend to go ineffectively for the eventual loser if they vote at all. 
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Cliffy
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« Reply #6 on: October 27, 2012, 11:29:49 AM »

Undecideds will break to Romney, Obama has had 4 years to seal the deal, too late at this point for him.
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Spanish Moss
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« Reply #7 on: October 27, 2012, 02:54:14 PM »

Is there any way we can bar them from voting?  And while we're at it, operating heavy machinery?
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: October 27, 2012, 03:07:05 PM »

Overall? Yes. However, the sorts of undecideds who make it past likely voter screens do, and there is a substantial cohort of people in the US who really don't decide until the voting booth.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: October 27, 2012, 03:35:08 PM »

If we are talking about a poll of RVs, then yes. but if you make it through the LV screen (so you vote regularly and say you plan to vote this year) then I think more than 50% of those will actually vote. And I bet they will end up breaking mostly evenly (maybe one guy gets 55%)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 27, 2012, 04:01:05 PM »

Yeah, undecideds  almost always go 50-50.
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stegosaurus
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« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2012, 04:52:51 PM »

Keep in mind: The polls are now screening out respondents who aren't likely to vote; the likely voter model. The "undecideds" in these polls are still pre-screened likely voters. The number of would be voters who don't cast ballots because they can't make up their minds by election day is insignificant.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #12 on: October 27, 2012, 05:01:58 PM »

Undecided male voters will probably vote for Romney.

Undecided female voters will probably vote for Obama, unless Romney has a lot of Mitt-mentum and it will be a blowout, and they will switch to Romney. 
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Napoleon
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« Reply #13 on: October 27, 2012, 05:23:58 PM »

Keep in mind: The polls are now screening out respondents who aren't likely to vote; the likely voter model. The "undecideds" in these polls are still pre-screened likely voters. The number of would be voters who don't cast ballots because they can't make up their minds by election day is insignificant.

People are more likely to say they will vote and then not vote than they are to say they will not vote and then actually vote.
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stegosaurus
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« Reply #14 on: October 27, 2012, 06:13:52 PM »

Keep in mind: The polls are now screening out respondents who aren't likely to vote; the likely voter model. The "undecideds" in these polls are still pre-screened likely voters. The number of would be voters who don't cast ballots because they can't make up their minds by election day is insignificant.

People are more likely to say they will vote and then not vote than they are to say they will not vote and then actually vote.

In general, that may be true - but I'm talking about those who intend to vote. You're talking about people who will tell a pollster the opposite of what they believe to avoid embarrassment; people which don't exist.
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milhouse24
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« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2012, 08:41:00 PM »

Keep in mind: The polls are now screening out respondents who aren't likely to vote; the likely voter model. The "undecideds" in these polls are still pre-screened likely voters. The number of would be voters who don't cast ballots because they can't make up their minds by election day is insignificant.

People are more likely to say they will vote and then not vote than they are to say they will not vote and then actually vote.

In general, that may be true - but I'm talking about those who intend to vote. You're talking about people who will tell a pollster the opposite of what they believe to avoid embarrassment; people which don't exist.

There are some people who are paranoid, and will publicly support Obama because they fear having their phones bugged, their internet bugged, spies in chat rooms, or even losing favor in the neighborhood.  But we know there is no such thing as a domestic spying network. 

Lets hope they can find the voting stations, and not get lost.
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