Here is a link to the event at the chamber of commerce on c-span.
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/2012ElectionOutlook2Views on Ohio
- It's the only swing state where there has been no real movement after the first debate.
- There are literally only 2-3% of undecideds 97% is decided in Ohio, its all on turnout.
- Romney is having difficulty moving white men compared to other states.
- Kerry lost by 3million votes yet only lost the electoral college vote by 60k votes.
- It's a very difficult nut to crack for Romney.
Views on Pennslyvania
- The senate race could be the surprise.
- Crossroads have spent no money. They might spend soon as most of Iowa, Nevada, Ohio will have voted so they might just bombard pennslyvania and see if they can change. But it's not going to affect a 5pt race.
Florida/North Carolina is lean romney
Wisconsin/Iowa/Nevada lean Obama considering early voting signs and track record.
Colorado is an unknown but there has been movement with men towards Romney.
Virginia is probably lean Romney but it could be the closest race.
Demographics
Seniors could have the biggest impact on the election. Will vote in record numbers.
Predictions
Rasmussen thinks Romney will win as Obama is on defence.
Santorum thinks Romney will win but by a bigger amount than we all think. he knows a texan oil guy who is going to spend 25m in the last week of the campaign.
Rendell thnks Obama will narrowly win for the reason that Kerry got so close yet still lost the popular vote by 3million.
Polling
This will probably be the last election with phone polls.
Social media technology has changed everything. Landlines are decreasing in the large metropolitan areads of the east/west coast so pollsters are going to have to come with alternative ways of meeting people.
Scott has tried a few alternative methods of polling with differing success but its increasingly difficult to poll correctly with the changing social media world.
Pollsters in 2016 will be using twitter facebook or something else that will come out that we haven't discovered yet.
Senate races
Connecticut Scott thinks McMahon is done.
Massachusetts Race is all over warren win.
Virginia; Allen is running 3pts lower than Romney. Virginia is a dead heat. Think Kaine-Allen gap is permanent.
Indiana; It's a very tough race but likely in the democrat column now and is a reflection of the 2012 cycle where republicans have done everything they can to not take the senate.
