An Arizona Surprise.

[retromike22]

Out of all the states, Arizona is one where I keep on thinking it will be a much closer race than we believe. My main reason for this is the underpolling of Hispanic voters. This was seen in the over-performance of Senate Democrats in CA, CO, and NV in 2010. Almost all polls are conducted in English, simply because of the cost.

These are the most recent Arizona polls:

10-21   Rasmussen   R +8   52%   44%
10-11   YouGov   R +9   52%   43%
10-10   Rocky Mountain   O +2    42%   44%   
10-03   Public Policy Polling   R +11   52%   41%
09-25   Rasmussen   R +10   52%   42%
09-19   Purple Strategies   R +3   48%   45%

To my knowledge, only the Rocky Mountain poll was conducted in both English and Spanish. In addition, there is the presence of Richard Carmona as a Senate candidate.

[sobo]

Arizona has an excellent chance of being the only state to swing toward Obama compared to 2008. If he were running 5 or 6 ahead nationally, he might have even picked it up. But it's not going to happen, not this year.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Arizona will probably remain 5-8 percentage points more republican than the country this year. In 2016, I could see it moving into swing State territory (though still with a R lean). Long-term trends don't materialize overnight.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Obama won't win, but I'll be very interested in the margin...

[Cryptic]

Obama won't win, but I'll be very interested in the margin...

[5280]

If Romney wins in 2012 and has a good 1st term, AZ is staying lean to solid GOP. There is no AZ surprise.