NBC News/WSJ Poll: Obama 47- Romney 47

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/21/14593294-nbcwsj-poll-2012-presidential-contest-now-tied?lite
Romney got a 3 point bump, as has been seen everywhere else. Late September 49-46 Obama.
Among registered voters Obama up 5. 49-44
Looking at some of the most important demographic groups, Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent), Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent) and they are essentially tied among voters in the Midwest.

[pa2011]

Considering this poll has him up by 49 to 44 with registered voters, this is good news for Obama. If he can just energize his share of the electorate, he wins. At this stage, think Romney's base is fairly energized, so he may already be at his ceiling among LV. Obama is not.

[Lief 🗽]

Yup, it's all about turnout. 47-47 is the best case Romney scenario, 49-44 is the best case Obama scenario.

[J. J.]

I'm not thrilled with the pollster, but it is showing the trend. 

[Lief 🗽]

NBC/WSJ is a much better pollster than Rasmussen or really any of the daily trackers we're getting.

[BigSkyBob]

Yup, it's all about turnout. 47-47 is the best case Romney scenario, 49-44 is the best case Obama scenario.

No, 47-47 is the "likely" outcome for Romney. Tighter screens could very well give Romney a larger lead.

[pepper11]

A 47-47 tie is better for Romney than a 49-49 tie. But this election is crazy close.

[Likely Voter]

There is definitely an enthusiasm issue going on. NBC's early Sept. poll had 1 point dif in RV/LV (in Romney's favor), in late September it was 3 points, now it is 5 points.

Again there are 2004 parallels. Kerry lead in RVs and trailed in LVs going into election day. In the end Bush's GOTV machine was better and he won the election.

So the big question is: can Obama's GOTV push him over the top in (at least) NV, WI and OH (giving him 271).

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

There is definitely an enthusiasm issue going on. NBC's early Sept. poll had 1 point dif in RV/LV (in Romney's favor), in late September it was 3 points, now it is 5 points.

Again there are 2004 parallels. Kerry lead in RVs and trailed in LVs going into election day. In the end Bush's GOTV machine was better and he won the election.

So the big question is: can Obama's GOTV push him over the top in (at least) NV, WI and OH (giving him 271).

Chuck Todd tweeted that ironically, Bush and Kerry were both tied at 48-48 at this point in the NBC-WSJ Poll from 2004.

[dirks]

I still remember that last FOX poll before the election had it 48-46 Kerry...basically thought it was over right there

[Ljube]

Polls within the margin of error just show that the result can go either way.

[Likely Voter]

Full details here:
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/nbc_oct_poll.pdf

Showing that the change is more about enthusiasm, Obama's Job approval remained steady at 49/48. Romney's personal approval ticked up 3 but still net negative 43/44. Obama's personal approval dropped 3 but is still positive 49/43.

I think the bottom line is that the country as a whole prefers Obama. This is also shown in other RV and positive approval ratings (like Gallup's All Adult rating). However the people who like and support Obama are just not as enthused to register and then vote as those who dont (and are either motivated by dislike of Obama and/or like of Romney). So if everyone HAD to vote, then Obama would win easily. But if (like the real world) voting is a choice AND if there were no campaigns, then Romney would probably win in a squeaker as more of his supporters would decide for themselves to go vote. So again it all comes down to a battle of the GOTV efforts.

[Cliffy]

Things that should trouble Obama supporters:

His disapproval is 52, approval 46 , that's RVs probably lower with LVs it's not in there.

Obama only gets 38% of the white vote in RVs, they don't say what it is with LVs, obviously it's not better or they would say. 

obama loses this election and it's not tied for sure if he only gets 38% of the white vote.  

Overall this poll is a mess their cross tabs are missing a lot of LV info.  I think PPP is biased but at least there poll results reads easy and makes sense.

[Cliffy]

I missed this gem too, 62% want a significant change from Obama policies in the next 4 yrs.