When and how could the GOP start winning states that are currently solidly blue

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Rubio ran instead of Trump, he can win the presidency

[Tekken_Guy]

Minnesota used to be safe Democratic, not anymore, that is now a swing state if there ever was one

No. GOP losses in the Twin Cities suburbs will offset any gain in rural areas.

Anyway, I don’t think the GOP can win in these states until it abandons its “angry white men” reactionary brand of politics. The states Clinton won all had either major cosmopolitan cities or large minority populations (with Vermont, NH, and Maine being exceptions; and she still barely won the latter two), and the nationalist GOP is toxic to those people.

Otherwise, they can get lucky by maxing out the rural vote in, say, Oregon to offset Democratic advantages in the big cities.

[RINO Tom]

One of the more amusing thing in politics that is sort of taboo to say is that the voters who are providing the bulk of votes for Democrats in these "big cities" are just frickin' people.  Tekken_Guy says "cosmopolitan" in every other post ... for every Democrat living on the Gold Coast in Chicago, there are ten living in a shltty apartment barely getting by, but because they both live in a "metropolis" every Democratic urban voter is viewed as this embodiment of elitism, LOL.

[Virginiá]

Cause Obama won by more than 4 points both times


Walker is what turned WI tilt GOP not Trump

I seriously doubt that. People care far more about presidential politics and are affected by it (politically-speaking) wayyyyy more than state-level stuff. It takes some colossal screwups in the state government to shift that dynamic.

The fact is, Walker was a well-funded candidate who ran in GOP wave years and was carried to comfortable but not overwhelming victories. Then, the first bad midterm that comes up under a Republican president and Walker is already trailing in almost every single poll on RCP's website. Often comfortably. There isn't really anything else to lay claim to. The legislature is gerrymandered to hell and bolsters GOP majorities that way. Maybe Walker built up the state party's organizational skills and funding, but that doesn't really add as much to the game as people think.

I'm sorry, but this Walker = political titan stuff is a myth. He's just another bland politician whose was credited with far more than he deserves. Those kinds of people are a dime a dozen in politics.

[NCJeff]

They’ll go via the path of least resistance. In 2016 this was the Midwest; in 2000 this was the south. They’ll target whatever groups leave the Democratic Party coalition, whatever regions are sympathic to the GOP message, and will adapt their message to create a national coalition.

Absolutely correct.

Given current conditions it will probably be the poorer bits of New England; Maine, Rhode Island etc

This

Agreed.

Maine is the obvious contender - it's generally in the bottom 10 of states GPD-wise, is rural, didn't go strongly for Clinton, and elected Poliquin.  On the other hand, in light of the 2016 results as will as Susan Collin's continued landslides, Maine is not solidly blue to begin with.

If the solidly blue states are the west coast states (CA, OR, WA, HI) and the northeast (besides Maine and NH), I'll make the case for Rhode Island.

Rhode Island is probably a distant second in terms of likelihood to turn blue, but given how strong and longstanding its democratic allegiance is right now, it's probably most in the spirit of what the original poster is asking for.

Recent electoral evidence:
* like WV, Michigan, and NH it rebelled against Clinton in the 2016 primaries and went for Sanders - a sign of discontent with the establishment?
* in the 2016 general it and Hawaii were the only dark blue states to swing & trend hard against the dems (the rest of the west trended to the dems and the other northeastern states trended GOP but not as strong as Rhode Island)

Other considerations:
* low economic growth; although not out of line with the rest of New England, this low economic growth is on an already-low base.  (I could be convinced Rhode Island is an economic powerhouse like Massachusetts, though).

That this case feels strained is evidence that the core of Democratic coalition is probably pretty stable for the next generation or so, and what's more likely to happen is that the two parties trade around the states that are already swing-y.  Our polarized era means there won't be any more VT's or WV's that rapidly shoot from one party to the other.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It would take a 2016 scandal to our nominee along with a third party nominee to crack the blue wall. From 2018, even in a 2022, Dem midterm, 279 blue wall is secure

[MR DARK BRANDON]

It would take a 2016 scandal to our nominee along with a third party nominee to crack the blue wall. From 2018, even in a 2022, Dem midterm, 279 blue wall is secure

Actually, states like Michigan and Wisconsin are considered swing.