The possibility of a realignment is hovering over this election. It was when I thought the GOP would win in 2008, and I'd give it 30% currently.
What do you base that 30% on? The race is right now 50/50 and a Romney win would be almost identical to Bush's wins in terms of popular vote and states won. Even if Romney is declared the winner of the next two debates, I don't see him gaining enough ground to move beyond the swing states.
Well, basically, I'm looking at very long term trends.
A close Romney victory would NOT equal a realignment.
OK, I think we can agree that a realignment will happen this millenium.
I've said we will be in it by 2016.
Not only does Obama have to win, he has to decimate Romney and/or Romney has to decimate himself. Matching Romney is not good enough.
In a realignment, yes. The possibility of a Democratic realignment is non-existent in 2012.
