Silver Projects Largest 1-Day Swing of the Year

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

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[後援会]

And Gallup, Pew, PPP, Politico, and etc.

Seriously, this implying that Republican pollsters are gaming the narrative is ridiculous and not the kind of conspiratorial thinking I expect from you.

[Lief 🗽]

Literally every single poll can't be a junk poll. Romney is leading by 0-2% right now. In 90 minutes, Obama threw away a four to five point lead and a solid control of nearly all the swing states.

[J. J.]

Literally every single poll can't be a junk poll. Romney is leading by 0-2% right now. In 90 minutes, Obama threw away a four to five point lead and a solid control of nearly all the swing states.

It is a swing to Romney, as opposed to a bounce, but it can swing back. 

[Brittain33]

Literally every single poll can't be a junk poll. Romney is leading by 0-2% right now. In 90 minutes, Obama threw away a four to five point lead and a solid control of nearly all the swing states.

I respect your feelings, and I'm ok with Dems feeling down right now, but really, you're getting to be a bore.

[tmthforu94]

Literally every single poll can't be a junk poll. Romney is leading by 0-2% right now. In 90 minutes, Obama threw away a four to five point lead and a solid control of nearly all the swing states.

I respect your feelings, and I'm ok with Dems feeling down right now, but really, you're getting to be a bore.

He's right, though, at least on that point. Some of the polls are a bit suspicious, but Democrats are literally dismissing just about every single post-debate poll that has come out. That's called being in a state of denial.

Romney is certainly ahead right now nationwide - that doesn't mean it's going to stay that way. One debate changed a race from +5 Obama to around +1 Romney. Who's to say the next debate won't shift it back to Obama?

[Yank2133]

Nate Silver: "With further gains by Romney today, we now have Obama as a ~70/30 favorite, same as before conventions."

[Likely Voter]

Literally every single poll can't be a junk poll. Romney is leading by 0-2% right now.

I absolutely agree that Dems cant start calling junk polls just like Republicans shouldnt have been doing that two weeks ago. It also appears that Romney  was ahead last Thursday and Friday, but are we so sure he still is today?  Silver indicates things are swinging back to slim Obama lead...

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[Devils30]

I think Romney got the bounce here that should have happened after the RNC. If Obama improves to a draw in the next debate that will be part of the media narrative and we should settle at Obama +1-2

[The Vorlon]

When I look at "Pollster.com" run by the Huffington Post (hardly part of the vast right wing conspiracy) - The ten most recent polls posted show: (As of 3.40 pm MST, October 9th)

Romney +4
Romney +2
Romney +2
Romney +2
Romney +1
Romney +1
Tied
Tied
Tied
Obama +1

6 show a Romney lead, 3 ties, and 1 Obama lead...

Pretty much exactly the statistical spread you would expect if the real spread was Romney up a point or so...  Well within MOE, but it is somewhat more likely the Romney is ahead than Obama is ahead...

GeeZ, even Daily Kos/PPP has Romney up 2%

If the election was today, Romney would likely squeak out a tight victory.

The election is not today.

Good news if you're for Romney, Bad for Obama, but a long, long way to go....

[Torie]

Literally every single poll can't be a junk poll. Romney is leading by 0-2% right now. In 90 minutes, Obama threw away a four to five point lead and a solid control of nearly all the swing states.

I respect your feelings, and I'm ok with Dems feeling down right now, but really, you're getting to be a bore.

Surely you are not taking all of this hand wringing and waiving and projecting and speculating by so many of both teams around here seriously are you, Brittain33? You and I both knew this election would end up being a tight one most probably from day one. The rest is noise.

[Brittain33]

Torie, I'm ok with it being tight--I agree, Obama running away with it was too good to be true. And I'd still rather be in Obama's shoes than Romney's. But this must be the 20th post from Lief in this vein, and like opebo's racism posts, the horse has been beaten into the ground.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I'm actually scared right now.

[J. J.]

First, I'll note how most of Republicans here have been very conservative.

Second, it is not quite time to panic if you are a Democrat.  You should, however, jettison all those hopes of a big Obama win and worry about the change in the political landscape.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm with brittain. I've actually considered putting Lief on ignore until Obama has a lead again. I mean yeah I can buy that Romney might have a small PV lead right now (though it looks like not electorally), but still...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm actually scared right now.

Oh stop it, lol... Romney's had a few very good days... but it's clear if there's good news for Obama, he can get the lead among LV back...

This should focus democrats on what needs to be done to win people back who have wavered... not have them sitting in a pool of tears, panicking a month before the election...

Listening to so many of my fellow Obama backers freak out over the past few days is giving me tremendous sympathy for the Romney backers in the past 5-6 weeks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's something worth considering:

Romney is still basically locked out of any Kerry state (and almost every Gore state too, except it appears he might not be completely hopeless in Iowa.*) Now one is probably going to point out that he doesn't need any Gore or Kerry states to win, which is true, but being absolutely locked out leaves no room for error. Romney still seems to have not quite cracked Ohio, Nevada is probably just barely out of reach, and Florida, Colorado and Virginia are basically total tossups, Romney needs all three. Compare this to Bush in 2004 where Ohio was the big tossup and all the other states mentioned had been basically locked up. Romney has boosted, but he hasn't changed the fundamentals of the race, which are not good for him.

*I'd also prefer to consider Florida a Gore state, but that's a whole other issue that's been beaten to death.

[7,052,770]

I'd sure rather be a 70% favorite on 538 than a 70% underdog.

[California8429]

Since it don't care much for either man. My hope is that this will just end up an extremely close election instead of anything between 04 and 08 type maps for Obama