My election night dream map
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Author Topic: My election night dream map  (Read 8034 times)
NVGonzalez
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« Reply #25 on: September 29, 2012, 01:56:21 AM »
« edited: September 29, 2012, 01:58:32 AM by NVGonzalez »

'Ever play the game"President Forever"?  I have the 2008 version with a 2012 scenario mod; playing through the game has given me some insights into how the election might play out.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Romney campaign is biding its time and won't roll out the big advertising blitz until at least October.  Once that happens, all bets are off.  For this reason, I'm not too concerned about Obama having more money or even that he's ahead in the polls.  

In my experience with playing "President Forever", holding out for an all-out killer advertising blitz in the final week would not be a winning strategy.

Yeah... You usually want to solidify your leaners and grab those undecideds in the first few weeks. Otherwise depending on the scripted events and difficulty you will probably lose.
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Hoverbored123
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« Reply #26 on: September 29, 2012, 08:46:40 AM »

'Ever play the game"President Forever"?  I have the 2008 version with a 2012 scenario mod; playing through the game has given me some insights into how the election might play out.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Romney campaign is biding its time and won't roll out the big advertising blitz until at least October.  Once that happens, all bets are off.  For this reason, I'm not too concerned about Obama having more money or even that he's ahead in the polls.  

In my experience with playing "President Forever", holding out for an all-out killer advertising blitz in the final week would not be a winning strategy.

Yeah... You usually want to solidify your leaners and grab those undecideds in the first few weeks. Otherwise depending on the scripted events and difficulty you will probably lose.

In the game I usually have a series of ads prepared for a continuous campaign starting about a month before Election Day.  Before that I don't spend any money on ads. 
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DrScholl
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« Reply #27 on: September 29, 2012, 09:43:49 AM »



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Politico
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« Reply #28 on: September 29, 2012, 09:45:22 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2012, 09:47:38 AM by Politico »

'Ever play the game"President Forever"?  I have the 2008 version with a 2012 scenario mod; playing through the game has given me some insights into how the election might play out.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Romney campaign is biding its time and won't roll out the big advertising blitz until at least October.  Once that happens, all bets are off.  For this reason, I'm not too concerned about Obama having more money or even that he's ahead in the polls.  

In my experience with playing "President Forever", holding out for an all-out killer advertising blitz in the final week would not be a winning strategy.

Yeah... You usually want to solidify your leaners and grab those undecideds in the first few weeks. Otherwise depending on the scripted events and difficulty you will probably lose.

In the game I usually have a series of ads prepared for a continuous campaign starting about a month before Election Day.  Before that I don't spend any money on ads.  

Yeah, even Hollywood does not heavily promote most blockbusters until 2-4 weeks before their release. If two blockbusters are competing head-to-head, usually the one that is most heavily advertised in the final week ends up being victorious (ceteris paribus)
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Thomas D
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« Reply #29 on: September 29, 2012, 09:54:16 AM »

'Ever play the game"President Forever"?  I have the 2008 version with a 2012 scenario mod; playing through the game has given me some insights into how the election might play out.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Romney campaign is biding its time and won't roll out the big advertising blitz until at least October.  Once that happens, all bets are off.  For this reason, I'm not too concerned about Obama having more money or even that he's ahead in the polls. 

In my experience with playing "President Forever", holding out for an all-out killer advertising blitz in the final week would not be a winning strategy.

Yeah... You usually want to solidify your leaners and grab those undecideds in the first few weeks. Otherwise depending on the scripted events and difficulty you will probably lose.

In the game I usually have a series of ads prepared for a continuous campaign starting about a month before Election Day.  Before that I don't spend any money on ads. 

Yeah, even Hollywood does not heavily promote most blockbusters until 2-4 weeks before their release. If two blockbusters are competing head-to-head, usually the one that is most heavily advertised in the final week ends up being victorious (ceteris paribus)

Unless people decided long ago that they didn't want to see said heavily advertised movie.

Hello, Battleship.
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Politico
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« Reply #30 on: September 29, 2012, 10:00:53 AM »

'Ever play the game"President Forever"?  I have the 2008 version with a 2012 scenario mod; playing through the game has given me some insights into how the election might play out.  If I had to guess, I'd say the Romney campaign is biding its time and won't roll out the big advertising blitz until at least October.  Once that happens, all bets are off.  For this reason, I'm not too concerned about Obama having more money or even that he's ahead in the polls. 

In my experience with playing "President Forever", holding out for an all-out killer advertising blitz in the final week would not be a winning strategy.

Yeah... You usually want to solidify your leaners and grab those undecideds in the first few weeks. Otherwise depending on the scripted events and difficulty you will probably lose.

In the game I usually have a series of ads prepared for a continuous campaign starting about a month before Election Day.  Before that I don't spend any money on ads. 

Yeah, even Hollywood does not heavily promote most blockbusters until 2-4 weeks before their release. If two blockbusters are competing head-to-head, usually the one that is most heavily advertised in the final week ends up being victorious (ceteris paribus)

Unless people decided long ago that they didn't want to see said heavily advertised movie.

Hello, Battleship.

What about when the alternative is a poor sequel, like Caddyshack 2?
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Thomas D
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« Reply #31 on: September 29, 2012, 10:10:53 AM »

But Caddyshack gave me health care despite my preexisting condition and stood up for my having equal rights. And Opening night is 5 weeks away and Battleship STILL hasn't told me what tax deductions he's going to get rid of to balance the budget.
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Politico
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« Reply #32 on: September 29, 2012, 10:22:31 AM »

But Caddyshack gave me health care despite my preexisting condition and stood up for my having equal rights. And Opening night is 5 weeks away and Battleship STILL hasn't told me what tax deductions he's going to get rid of to balance the budget.

If we're going to pick a recent Liam Neeson flick, I think it should be The Gray or Taken.
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« Reply #33 on: September 29, 2012, 10:27:14 AM »

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opebo
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« Reply #34 on: September 29, 2012, 10:38:47 AM »


That's cute!  Mississippi saves us.

As for myself, my 'dream' - in the sense of what I hope for - is the same as my prediction map:

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Hoverbored123
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« Reply #35 on: September 30, 2012, 06:34:38 AM »



I got this map by looking at the Berry/Bickers regression chart plotting Obama's 2008 showing against his projected 2012 showing.  I added states to the GOP column by moving left to right along the regression line. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #36 on: September 30, 2012, 06:57:11 AM »

Not going to do a map, but...
Ten different candidates winning EVs, none of them far right enough to be considered reliable by today's Republican primary electorate, whoever wins the most popular votes not among the fairly random top three people between whom the House choses. Constitutional Crisis time.
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sentinel
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« Reply #37 on: September 30, 2012, 11:59:07 AM »



408-130.

Whenever I play political machine if I have a big lead I try to pick up Texas in the last few turns. I always manage to get it close, but I don't always manage to get it.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #38 on: September 30, 2012, 12:26:40 PM »

I'd really like to see this happen:



It would be a narrow R win today but almost surely a narrow D win after 2020.

Socially conservative/pro-pork Midwestern R vs. Libertarian-flavored Hispanic D?
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #39 on: September 30, 2012, 12:34:29 PM »



Northeast: 187
Southeast: 161
Southwest: 147
Northwest: 43

The Mississippi Rive and Mason-Dixon line (roughly) are the points of geographic divide.
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Peeperkorn
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« Reply #40 on: September 30, 2012, 04:40:25 PM »

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Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden
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« Reply #41 on: September 30, 2012, 05:27:38 PM »



Basically a reverse 1976, minus DC.
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Hoverbored123
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« Reply #42 on: October 01, 2012, 02:20:09 AM »



408-130.

Whenever I play political machine if I have a big lead I try to pick up Texas in the last few turns. I always manage to get it close, but I don't always manage to get it.

     I don't have Political Machine, but flipping Texas is a pretty reasonable strategy if you want a Democratic landslide.  In President Forever (the game I have), if I wanted to flip Texas my strategy would be to create as many foot soldiers as I can, as early as possible.  Early momentum is the key to catching up in a state where you're way behind. 
     Another strategy is to target the state with advertising focusing on an issue where you line up with the voters in that state (or failing that, an issue where the other side is weak).  Barnstorming early and often is also important. 
     In short, start early and don't wait until you're ahead nationally.  The beauty of it is, a substantial gain in such a large state might be enough to affect your national numbers.  In president Forever, this is more or less the strategy I use to flip California to the GOP in 2012. 
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