Florida SUSA: Obama 48 Romney 44

[Minnesota Mike]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0e8560f2-ff17-47b5-a9ca-af30a69105e4&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[User157088589849]

florida has voted for the winner in every election but two. its the real show me state.

[Supersonic]

Oh dear.

[Yank2133]

After the NC poll, I have to see the breakdowns.

Edit: Seems legit.

[Lief 🗽]

Since when are 7% of Florida voters Asian???

[King]

I'm pretty convinced Survey USA has lost its edge.

[MorningInAmerica]

This poll actually represents an improvement (slight) for Romney from SurveyUSA's last Florida poll
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html#polls

Obama: 48% (no change)
Romney: 44% (+1)

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Party ID of the LV sample is D+5
Exit poll projected FL turnout in '08: D+3
Exit poll projected FL turnout in '04: R+4

[DrScholl]

Romney will not get 13% of the black vote.

[Eraserhead]

This is the only realistic way for Romney to win without Florida (and I use the term "realistic" loosely):

Romney: 272
Obama: 266

[Devils30]

If Obama is up 5-6 nationally then 5 in Ohio and 4 in Florida makes a lot of sense. The Cuban % for Obama is way too high but that's probably about 50 people at most in the entire poll so within that subgroup there's a huge margin of error.

[Skill and Chance]

If Obama is up 5-6 nationally then 5 in Ohio and 4 in Florida makes a lot of sense. The Cuban % for Obama is way too high but that's probably about 50 people at most in the entire poll so within that subgroup there's a huge margin of error.

It looks like FL and OH are going to trend left relative to 2008.  These are big states and I wonder what is trending right to counteract them?

[Devils30]

Probably IA, WI, MI,IN- at least relative to 2008. Not that Romney has any chance in Michigan

[krazen1211]

Haha, no. Florida in reality has many more non hispanic whites, and many fewer nonwhites.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Since when are 7% of Florida voters Asian???

It's "Asian/Other". SUSA uses the Census-style racial categories where Hispanic is over and above race, so some Hispanics call themselves white and others call themselves "other". And also SUSA's weirdly 1990's-looking web site cuts off headings above a certain length. (Another category is "cell pho", which sounds like a Vietnamese prison meal).

[Mister Twister]

Romney really is collapsing in Florida. He should have picked Rubio.

[Tender Branson]

10-point bounce for Obama compared with their Mid-September 2008 FL poll:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1220080917019

[RJ]

While I won't say this is devastating for Romney or that he's collapsing, Florida is probably the state in which polling surprises me the most. It appears to be polling more Democratic than the national average. Romney can't afford to lose those 29 electoral votes and still have a realistic chance at winning.

[JFK-Democrat]

Obama campaign just announced a HUGE Florida ad buy. They know they have MittBot in the ropes...going for the KO, or at least force him to waste time and money in Florida

[Earthling]

If Florida is leaning Obama, after Ohio, than Romney is in big, big trouble. No way he wins without at least one in his column.

[Dumbo]

If Florida is leaning Obama, after Ohio, than Romney is in big, big trouble. No way he wins without at least one in his column.

I think that Florida is a must-win-state for Romney. In my opinion Obama has already
won 243 EV. Obama will win Nevada and Michigan, Romney will win NC.
Open races in Colorado 9 EV - Iowa 6 EV - Wisconsin 10 EV - Ohio 18 EV - Virginia 13 EV
- New Hampshire 4 EV - Florida 29 EV.

Adding the 29 EV from Florida Obama has won (272).

[SPC]

Romney really is collapsing in Florida. He should have picked Rubio.

Rubio would have been a Potemkin village for the Romney campaign.

[opebo]

Has anybody posted this?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/sept-11-florida-a-true-must-win-for-romney/

Silver says Romney only has a 2% change to win without Florida, and also rates at 67% chance an Obama win in the state.

[Sbane]

Hmm...get seniors pissed about the Romney campaign through the use of Bill, and thanks to the Republicans own good work they get the Hispanic vote. In any case this is ominous for the future.