The black vote in 2012

[Lincoln Republican]

Obama will get 97% of the black votes again.  More importantly Obama's share of the white vote will drop to a historic low for the Democratic nominee

Hey, he only got 94% or something in 2008. I think Romney could manage maybe 8% of the black vote.

And Obama wouldn't be at a historic low. Now, he would be at a historic low for a winning nominee if he wins, but current polling has Obama actually doing slightly better among whites than Walter Mondale.

Better amongst whites than Mondale is really not saying much.

[Frodo]

Obama will get 97% of the black votes again.  More importantly Obama's share of the white vote will drop to a historic low for the Democratic nominee

Hey, he only got 94% or something in 2008. I think Romney could manage maybe 8% of the black vote.

And Obama wouldn't be at a historic low. Now, he would be at a historic low for a winning nominee if he wins, but current polling has Obama actually doing slightly better among whites than Walter Mondale.

Better amongst whites than Mondale is really not saying much.

It is if you consider that whites compose a smaller segment of the electorate today than they did twenty years ago. 

[morgieb]

Obama will get 97% of the black votes again.  More importantly Obama's share of the white vote will drop to a historic low for the Democratic nominee

Hey, he only got 94% or something in 2008. I think Romney could manage maybe 8% of the black vote.

And Obama wouldn't be at a historic low. Now, he would be at a historic low for a winning nominee if he wins, but current polling has Obama actually doing slightly better among whites than Walter Mondale.

Better amongst whites than Mondale is really not saying much.

It does show however how our country is diversifying.

[後援会]

It also shows how uniquely dominant Romney is among persuadable voters are. And it makes me doubt the amazing campaigning/PR abilities of Obama, since he's really not running much better than Mondale - he just has the good fortune of more favorable demographics than Mondale.

And of course, it's fascinating that Romney is roughly doing almost as well as Reagan '84 (and better than Reagan '80) but could quite possibly still lose the election.

[J. J.]

Ah, I'm not entirely white.

Actually, by 3:00 PM on election day, I should have a good idea who will carry PA.

This may be your most J. J. post ever.

More based on results.  Jesse Jackson showed up a mile from my house in 2000 because of low turnout.  I'd been saying there was a problem a few hours before.

[Sbane]

It also shows how uniquely dominant Romney is among persuadable voters are. And it makes me doubt the amazing campaigning/PR abilities of Obama, since he's really not running much better than Mondale - he just has the good fortune of more favorable demographics than Mondale.

And of course, it's fascinating that Romney is roughly doing almost as well as Reagan '84 (and better than Reagan '80) but could quite possibly still lose the election.

Actually the GOP screwed up by not courting Hispanics and actually going on the attack against them in AZ and various southern states. I was watching video of the 2004 GOP convention and Bush actually spoke a little Spanish during his speech. Can you imagine that happening now? Republicans are being idiots by conceding the Hispanic and Asian voters to the Democrats.

[後援会]

The GOP really does not need Hispanic voters as badly as some people think they do. I mean certainly, being competitive among hispanic voters would be very nice, but it's not a neccesary requirement. The Hispanic population is probably going to grow a lot slower than most people expect in the next few decades.

[Link]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

[Linus Van Pelt]

Contrary to stereotype, I don't think there's much evidence that blacks are less likely to be swing voters (or "persuadable") than whites. In the National Exit Poll for the five elections in the past twenty years, whites are R+1, R+3, R+12, R+17, R+12 - a range of 16 and an average swing between elections of 5.25. Blacks are D+73, D+72, D+82, D+78, D+91 - a range of 19 and an average swing between elections of 7. Of course black non-swingers are overwhelmingly of one party and white non-swingers aren't, but this is a separate issue. The percentage of a demographic that is shifty is independent of the partisan leanings of the non-shifty component of that demographic.

[後援会]

In normal elections, what you are saying is essentially correct.

With Obama on top of the ballot, there are almost no black swing voters.

[Ty440]

Let us suppose due to the fact unemployment amongst blacks is around 14% that enthusiasm for blacks voting in 2012 is down from 2008 and that blacks vote about 75% of what they did in 2008.

Which Obama states, if any, would be at risk for Obama in this admittedly unlikely scenario?

   

Black turnout was 11% of the electorate in 2004 , 13% in 2008. Not a  chance in the world that one quarter of blacks from 2008  will sit out  this election.  As strong as they turned out in 2008 to elect the first black president , they will be out just as strong to make sure he isn't thrown out after only one term.

I would guess blacks make up between 12-13% of the electorate. Kerry had 11% , no way  it's dropping below that.

[Lincoln Republican]

Poll or no poll, it is ridiculous to conclude that Romney will get 0% of the black vote.  He will likely get around 10%.

But the point of this discussion is not what percentage of the black vote Romney will get, it is if black turnout is down what effect this will have on the Obama reelection effort.

[Vosem]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

So we've learned to lie with statistics?

The poll was an outlier; most polls do show Romney getting about 1/10 black voters, a little better than McCain did (like with most groups) and it is considered likely that black turnout will be lower, though I don't know if there are statistics backing up that assertion.

[Mr. Morden]

Herman Cain insists he's not a zero:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-cain-bachmann-cite-strength-of-tea-party-20120826,0,1401289.story

[Link]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

So we've learned to lie with statistics?

The poll was an outlier; most polls do show Romney getting about 1/10 black voters, a little better than McCain did (like with most groups) and it is considered likely that black turnout will be lower, though I don't know if there are statistics backing up that assertion.

No I've learned how to quote reasonable sources and provide links as opposed to making unsubstantiated statements over and over again with zero references.

[Vosem]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

So we've learned to lie with statistics?

The poll was an outlier; most polls do show Romney getting about 1/10 black voters, a little better than McCain did (like with most groups) and it is considered likely that black turnout will be lower, though I don't know if there are statistics backing up that assertion.

No I've learned how to quote reasonable sources and provide links as opposed to making unsubstantiated statements over and over again with zero references.

What we do have is the fact that Obama beat McCain 94-6, and that Romney has improved by ~5-6 points on McCain's margin, so that even if you think most of the improvement is among other groups, 90-10 is still a rather reasonable estimate. I'll admit that I'm too lazy to do more than quick Google search, which only shows links to the NBC outlier. And you have figured out how to link to outliers that support what you're saying, I'll give you that. You're not the first, so you can't exactly claim credit for the discovery, but you've figured out how to do it.

[後援会]

Yeah, if 10% of a 500 person sample is black, we're talking about a survey that interviewed 50 blacks. The margin of error is stunning. Misuse of statistics, even if you become extremely snippy and defensive when questioned, is still misleading.

Drawing a conclusion from that (in big bold letters) is about the same as drawing conclusions from that PPP-Nevada poll that had Romney at 25% among blacks (in the crosstabs). To do so betrays a fundamental lack of understanding of how statistics work.

In all honesty, I think the above/under for Romney will be about 8%.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Poll or no poll, it is ridiculous to conclude that Romney will get 0% of the black vote.  He will likely get around 10%.

He'll be lucky to get 5%.

[Link]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

So we've learned to lie with statistics?

The poll was an outlier; most polls do show Romney getting about 1/10 black voters, a little better than McCain did (like with most groups) and it is considered likely that black turnout will be lower, though I don't know if there are statistics backing up that assertion.

No I've learned how to quote reasonable sources and provide links as opposed to making unsubstantiated statements over and over again with zero references.

I'll admit that I'm too lazy to do more than quick Google search, which only shows links to the NBC outlier. And you have figured out how to link to outliers that support what you're saying, I'll give you that.

Lol.  You acknowledge it's all that's out there and then say I "figured out" how to link to it.  It's the only recent poll out there, dude.

You're not the first, so you can't exactly claim credit for the discovery, but you've figured out how to do it.

Relax.  No one is seeking validation or praise from an internet forum, and certainly not for finding an article on Politico.

What we do have is the fact that Obama beat McCain 94-6, and that Romney has improved by ~5-6 points on McCain's margin, so that even if you think most of the improvement is among other groups, 90-10 is still a rather reasonable estimate.

J. J. was talking about turnout not overall percentages.  Anyway you are taking this nonsense talk too seriously.  Neither J. J. nor I nor anyone else know with any certitude what the AA turn out will be or the exact AA percentages.  Anyone claiming that in August is a fool.  J. J. made a statement and I made a snarky post.  That's it.  Despite what he posts J. J. has been through enough of these cycles he knows such proclamations either way in August are pretty much worthless.  It's just some partisan back and forth.  Nothing to be taken seriously.  Whether Obama wins 94% of the AA vote or 96% is irrelevant.  That difference is probably within the margin of error of exit polls.

[Statesman]

I very much doubt Romney will break 10%.

[J. J.]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

Which really doesn't say anything about turnout.

[Lincoln Republican]

Neverless, 0% of the black vote for the Republican nominee is one of the stupidest things and certainly one of the stupidest poll results I have ever heard.

Not all black voters are Obama worshipers.  Only about 90% of them, even though Obama has let them down by leading them to an unemployment rate of 14% plus in four years, far above the national average.

Obama and the Dems know they have blacks in the bag, so they simply take them for granted, so it really doesn't matter to them they have done nothing to improve their unemployment numbers.   

[Link]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

Which really doesn't say anything about turnout.

And your post didn't say anything period.  It's August.  Nobody knows.

Neverless, 0% of the black vote for the Republican nominee is one of the stupidest things and certainly one of the stupidest poll results I have ever heard.

Not all black vo...   

MARGIN OF ERROR

They really need to teach statistics in our high schools.  No wonder the South Koreans are owning us in math.

[J. J.]

It's likely that Blacks will turn out very strongly again for Obama. Probably also Hispanics.

The question will be Whites. Obama needs about 38-40% of them to win the NPV, if Blacks and Hispanics and Asians turn out by similar margins like in 2008.

I think black turnout will be lower in 2012 for two reasons:

1.  The novelty is gone.  "We can do it, again," just isn't as good as "We can do it."

2.  Obama has not made a positive difference in the lives of black people (or white people, Hispanics, or Asians).  Expectations were high; there will be some disillusionment.

Here's what black people are saying...

Which really doesn't say anything about turnout.

And your post didn't say anything period.  It's August.  Nobody knows.

Neverless, 0% of the black vote for the Republican nominee is one of the stupidest things and certainly one of the stupidest poll results I have ever heard.

Not all black vo...   

MARGIN OF ERROR

They really need to teach statistics in our high schools.  No wonder the South Koreans are owning us in math.

I'm looking at two things. 

1.  In some states registrations expire if one does not vote, after two elections.  There has not been a concentration on voter registration that was there in 2008.  It seems fairly clear that blacks have not been voting in the record numbers they were 2008.  The pool of voters has shrunk.

2.  The enthusiasm level  is much lower.  I only rarely see Obama signs or new bumper stickers.  There has been no massive effort to drive it up.

There was in 2004 and 2008.

[Link]

There has not been a concentration on voter registration that was there in 2008.

You gotta reputable link?

It seems fairly clear that blacks have not been voting in the record numbers they were 2008.

There hasn't been a presidential election since 2008... in this country.  Are you in Peru?