NBC/WSJ Natl: Obama+4

[Likely Voter]

NBC Wall Street Journal Poll RV

August Horserace: Obama Leads by 4 (change since last month)
Romney/Ryan : 44 (+1)
Obama/Biden :  48 (-1)

Romney's problems:

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Ryan = Cheney?

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Obama's Economy problem

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Article: http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/21/13399788-nbcwsj-poll-heading-into-conventions-obama-has-four-point-lead?lite

PDF: http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/_Today_Stories_Teases/August_NBC-WSJ_Int_Sched.pdf

[pepper11]

Still RV? WFT. In any case, the margin is closing. With a LV model this would be a one point race.

[5280]

The gap/margin closes, bring it on.

[Likely Voter]

Since someone is bound to ask, the (self-identified) Party ID weight is D+7

Strong Democrat ............................................... 24
Not very strong Democrat ................................. 10
Independent/lean Democrat .............................. 11
Strictly Independent .......................................... 13
Independent/lean Republican ............................ 12
Not very strong Republican ............................... 9
Strong Republican ............................................. 18
Other (VOL) ....................................................... 3
Not sure ........................................................... 1

[pepper11]

I dont get this statement from NBC

"These numbers are only slightly changed from July, when Obama led Romney by six points in the survey, 49 percent to 43 percent, suggesting a minimal bounce for Romney (if at all) after this month’s Ryan pick."

A bounce is inherently transient. Ryan was announced 10 days ago. If they wanted to look for a bounce they should have polled last Sunday.  Current numbers are what they are. There is no bounce anymore - its the state of the race. Polling 101 NBC.

[NHI]

I like these numbers.

[Likely Voter]

The opportunity and challenge for Romney is to turn around his personal numbers. If he can successfully show that he isnt Gordon Gecko at the RNC, he should get a bounce. Obama's problems are harder as he is being held back by the economy and that cant be fixed by a nice speech.