States that Romney and Obama will get under 40% in

[mileslunn]

Any predictions on which states Romney and Obama will fail to crack the 40% mark.  Here are mine

Likely or definitely for Obama
Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Alabama

Possibly for Obama
Nebraska
Kansas
Louisiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
West Virginia

Likely or definitely for Romney

Hawaii
Vermont
Rhode Island
District of Columbia

Possibly for Romney

California
Illinois
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New York
Delaware
Maryland

As for under 35%, I think Obama will get under 35% in Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Oklahoma while for Romney only in Hawaii, Vermont, and DC.  Under 30% for Obama, likely in Utah and possibly in Wyoming and Idaho, otherwise the states with large mormon populations.  For Romney, probably only DC, but possibly albeit not likely in Hawaii and Vermont.  Utah is the only state I can see Obama getting less than 25% while Romney will likely get between 5-10% in DC.

What are your thoughts.

[mileslunn]

Also for predictions of over 45%, I think Romney will get over 45% in every swing state as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Maine, and New Jersey are possibilities too although I cannot see Romney actually winning any of those.  For Obama; Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, and Georgia are states where I think he has a decent chance of getting over 45% even though I don't expect him to win any of those. 

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Romney will fail to crack 40% in the light blue, Obama will fail in the light red. 

[mileslunn]

Romney will fail to crack 40% in the light blue, Obama will fail in the light red. 

No disagreement here although West Virginia would be ironic considering that as recently as 20 years ago it use to be one of the bluer states but has trended quite to the right since then.  Lets remember Dukakis won there despite doing poorly nationally.

[Eraserhead]

Romney will fail to crack 40% in the light blue, Obama will fail in the light red.  

I have a tough time seeing Obama fail to crack 40% in West Virginia. I think he came close to rock bottom already for a Democrat there in 2008. Plus he's now against a flip-flopper Mormon who's a terrible fit for the state compared to John McCain. I guess it's possible though, especially if he loses nationally.

[LastVoter]

I think Romney might not hit 40% in Washington.

[Gass3268]

I think Romney might not hit 40% in Washington.

Same with New Mexico

[Gass3268]

Also Delaware should be on that map.

[mileslunn]

Delaware is possible.  I doubt Romney will get below 40% in Washington or New Mexico.  Eastern Washington is fairly heavily GOP never mind outside of King County the GOP usually gets above 40% in most Western Washington counties albeit only a handful do they routinely win.  As for New Mexico, I am pretty sure Romney will get at least 60% of the non-latino vote so I think that would put him over 40% overall.

[Adam Griffin]

[Fargobison]

Also for predictions of over 45%, I think Romney will get over 45% in every swing state as well as Michigan and Pennsylvania.  Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, Minnesota, Maine, and New Jersey are possibilities too although I cannot see Romney actually winning any of those.  For Obama; Arizona, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, and Georgia are states where I think he has a decent chance of getting over 45% even though I don't expect him to win any of those. 

ND is far more likely to be Obama under 40 than over 45. I don't think Obama has polled over 39% yet this year.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

ID, WY, UT, OK for Romney are certain. AL, KS, NE, AK depend on how close the national vote is, and ND may be in that group too due to the oil boom.

Romney certainly fails to get 40% in DC, VT, HI, and RI, and probably MD and NY. He likely breaks 40% in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and California; Illinois and Delaware are anyone's guess.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Romney will fail to crack 40% in the light blue, Obama will fail in the light red.  

I have a tough time seeing Obama fail to crack 40% in West Virginia. I think he came close to rock bottom already for a Democrat there in 2008. Plus he's now against a flip-flopper Mormon who's a terrible fit for the state compared to John McCain. I guess it's possible though, especially if he loses nationally.

I don't think Obama loses nationally, I just think turnout goes completely to sh!t in WV, not to mention how extremely unpopular he is there. 

Obama absolutely bombing in WV is one of my "out there" predictions for this election, so to speak. 

[memphis]

Romney will fail to crack 40% in the light blue, Obama will fail in the light red.  

I have a tough time seeing Obama fail to crack 40% in West Virginia. I think he came close to rock bottom already for a Democrat there in 2008. Plus he's now against a flip-flopper Mormon who's a terrible fit for the state compared to John McCain. I guess it's possible though, especially if he loses nationally.

Coal has had a crazy bad 4 years due to the natural gas boom. Obama may even do worse than McGovern in WV. I fully expect him to lose every county there.

[mondale84]

Delaware is possible.  I doubt Romney will get below 40% in Washington or New Mexico.  Eastern Washington is fairly heavily GOP never mind outside of King County the GOP usually gets above 40% in most Western Washington counties albeit only a handful do they routinely win.  As for New Mexico, I am pretty sure Romney will get at least 60% of the non-latino vote so I think that would put him over 40% overall.

Ummm....no.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney will fail to crack 40% in the light blue, Obama will fail in the light red.  

I have a tough time seeing Obama fail to crack 40% in West Virginia. I think he came close to rock bottom already for a Democrat there in 2008. Plus he's now against a flip-flopper Mormon who's a terrible fit for the state compared to John McCain. I guess it's possible though, especially if he loses nationally.

Coal has had a crazy bad 4 years due to the natural gas boom. Obama may even do worse than McGovern in WV. I fully expect him to lose every county there.

Given that it seems to be one of the states where Romney's background as a wealthy Mormon vulture hurts most, and that Obama is barely faring worse in current polling, he probably hits 42% or so.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Romney <40%        
DC                
Hawaii          
Vermont        
New York    

Obama <40%        
Utah              
Idaho            
Wyoming        
Oklahoma      
Alaska            
Alabama        
Arkansas        
Kentucky        

[mondale84]

Romney <40%        
DC                
Hawaii          
Vermont        
New York    

Obama <40%        
Utah              
Idaho            
Wyoming        
Oklahoma      
Alaska            
Alabama        
Arkansas        
Kentucky        

Ummm....no.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Romney <40%       
DC               
Hawaii           
Vermont       
New York     

Obama <40%         
Utah             
Idaho             
Wyoming       
Oklahoma       
Alaska           
Alabama         
Arkansas       
Kentucky        

Ummm....no.

The last time a Democrat got more than 40% of the vote in Alaska was 44 years ago so I think that's a fairly safe bet.  Kentucky I'm less confident about, which is why I put it last on the list, but between coal country and the suburbs I think  a 1.2% or more swing against Obama is likely.

[renegadedemocrat]

Romney:
New York
Rhode Island
Hawaii
California
DC
Illinois
Massachusetts
Vermont
Maryland

Obama:
Utah
Oklahoma
Idaho
Wyoming
Mississippi