MO-Mellman Group (D)/Majority PAC (D): Obama down 2

[Tender Branson]

Senator McCaskill’s margins and gains are all the more impressive given that President Obama continues to lag Mitt Romney—now by 2 points compared to a 1-point deficit in March.

http://www.majority2012.com/wpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Memo-McCaskill-Continues-To-Lead.pdf

[pbrower2a]

The difference between a 1% and a 2% deficit in support for the President. A firm McCaskill win and a bare loss for the President in Missouri would be a huge plus on the whole. 

[tmthforu94]

They also had McCaskill up by 9, which I seriously doubt.

I don't expect Obama to compete in Missouri like he did in 2008. The state doesn't look too great for him.

[pbrower2a]

They also had McCaskill up by 9, which I seriously doubt.

I don't expect Obama to compete in Missouri like he did in 2008. The state doesn't look too great for him.

It could be that Senator McCaskill is much stronger in Missouri than is the President. Think of Manchin in West Virginia. Southern Missouri is much like West Virginia in demographics and culture. Barack Obama just can't relate to Appalachia and the Ozarks. 

[Wisconsin+17]

Uh, WV is +17 for Romney. MO is tossup. They aren't even in the same ballpark.

[Adam Griffin]

Uh, WV is +17 for Romney. MO is tossup. They aren't even in the same ballpark.

They're similar in how the comparable electorates - the white rural mountain folk - can still vote for Democrats at the state and local levels but not nationally, especially if they are "diverse". West Virginia displays the trend very heavily on a statewide level (West Virginia "Democrats" dominate at all levels of elected government but West Virginians will probably never vote for a Democratic presidential candidate ever again), while in Missouri it is regional.

[opebo]

Uh, WV is +17 for Romney. MO is tossup. They aren't even in the same ballpark.

They're similar in how the comparable electorates - the white rural mountain folk - can still vote for Democrats at the state and local levels but not nationally, especially if they are "diverse". West Virginia displays the trend very heavily on a statewide level (West Virginia "Democrats" dominate at all levels of elected government but West Virginians will probably never vote for a Democratic presidential candidate ever again), while in Missouri it is regional.

I'm afraid you are way off base about Missouri - its a much bigger and more urbanized state than West Virginia.  The 'white rural mountain folk' are a quite small percentage of the Missouri population - only in the Ozarks, and we have two large cities and the northern part of the state is more like Nebraska or Kansas in voting. 

However, you are correct that in a string of counties in the eastern part of the Ozarks (mainly the 'Lead Belt', but a few other counties with industries/mining/etc) do vote much more Democratic than one would expect.  These are however only about 1/4 of the Ozarks/southern Missouri counties.

Missouri is a 3-5 percent Republican leaning state rather than 15% Republican leaning like WV because of the cities, not because of this minor rural aspect.

[Adam Griffin]

Uh, WV is +17 for Romney. MO is tossup. They aren't even in the same ballpark.

They're similar in how the comparable electorates - the white rural mountain folk - can still vote for Democrats at the state and local levels but not nationally, especially if they are "diverse". West Virginia displays the trend very heavily on a statewide level (West Virginia "Democrats" dominate at all levels of elected government but West Virginians will probably never vote for a Democratic presidential candidate ever again), while in Missouri it is regional.

I'm afraid you are way off base about Missouri - its a much bigger and more urbanized state than West Virginia.  The 'white rural mountain folk' are a quite small percentage of the Missouri population - only in the Ozarks, and we have two large cities and the northern part of the state is more like Nebraska or Kansas in voting.  

However, you are correct that in a string of counties in the eastern part of the Ozarks (mainly the 'Lead Belt', but a few other counties with industries/mining/etc) do vote much more Democratic than one would expect.  These are however only about 1/4 of the Ozarks/southern Missouri counties.

Missouri is a 3-5 percent Republican leaning state rather than 15% Republican leaning like WV because of the cities, not because of this minor rural aspect.

Generally, this is what I meant. I will say that I didn't look specifically at each county in MO, but the idea was that the regional (as in, a region of the state) Democratic trends evident in those MO counties are comparable to the statewide Democratic trends in WV: conservative, white Democrats who support local and state Democrats but not national ones due to geographic and political isolation from the rest of the state and the ability for these local parties to keep their identities separated from the national party. Obviously WV and MO can't be compared side-by-side, state-to-state in this regard due to - as you mentioned - MO being larger and more diverse; just trying to look at how the voting mindset of these isolated Ozark voters are similar to the state of WV at-large.

[ShadowRocket]

I'm surprised that it doesn't seem like Obama is really contesting MO. Granted, the state may be trending Republican, but he came so close there last time and Romney seems like a poor fit for the state.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I think MO will be tight, but not 2 points, no way. Maybe something like 53-47 Romney or something.

[opebo]

Generally, this is what I meant. I will say that I didn't look specifically at each county in MO, but the idea was that the regional (as in, a region of the state) Democratic trends evident in those MO counties are comparable to the statewide Democratic trends in WV: conservative, white Democrats who support local and state Democrats but not national ones due to geographic and political isolation from the rest of the state and the ability for these local parties to keep their identities separated from the national party. Obviously WV and MO can't be compared side-by-side, state-to-state in this regard due to - as you mentioned - MO being larger and more diverse; just trying to look at how the voting mindset of these isolated Ozark voters are similar to the state of WV at-large.

You're exactly right - I partially mis-read your post before responding as I did.. however the specific counties I mentioned are really 'trending' much that I can see - they're just an oddity that has been around for a long time and continues much the same. 

Actually it is an interesting question - to compare and contrast the Ozarks culture and politics with that of Appalachia.  Perhaps Al or somesuch could chime in.  But I have a feeling that for the most part, Ozarkans are less a somewhat less distinct group from the normal population - for example, though they have strong accents, they are perfectly understandable.  When I was in Eastern Kentucky I couldn't understand anyone.

[HAnnA MArin County]

It would make sense for Obama to target Missouri as a second-tier state, but I doubt he will. He's going to be terribly outspent by Romney and is going to have to devote all of his resources to the Big Three. It pains me to say, but sadly Missouri is slowly becoming more Republican. I think it's mostly a combination of the GOP's lock on rural voters exploiting the social issues, as well as the demographic changes that favor the Republicans. If you look at the 2010 Census data, St. Louis and Kansas City lost population, while St. Charles County and the Springfield suburban counties (staunchly red places) gained the most population. I say Jay Nixon will be reelected safely, McCaskill should squeak by given that all three of her opponents are nutters, and Obama loses the state anywhere from 2-5 points.