Will Ron Paul finally win something tomorrow?

[Franzl]

Intrade is giving him respectable shots (15-20%) at North Dakota and Alaska.

Will the old man finally win a state?

[bgwah]

No.

[Free Palestine]

I didn't know ND was having a primary/caucus.

[Joe Republic]

AK, ND and ID haven't even been polled once, so who knows what's going on up there.  Sure, Romney carried two of those in 2008, but then he also won CO and MN then too.

[Eraserhead]

Intrade is giving him respectable shots (15-20%) at North Dakota and Alaska.

Will the old man finally win a state?

I wish I could say "yes" but I don't really have any faith in him at this point. In theory he should have a shot at these...

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, he's running ads in Alaska, and he actually campaigned up there on Sunday, while none of the other candidates has set foot in the state.

But it probably won't be enough.

Alaska will probably come in pretty late.  But 5pm in Sydney = 1am on the east coast of the USA, so if I come home from work early, I might be able to watch CNN when the Alaska caucus results are coming in.

[Tender Branson]

It would be cool if he'd win Alaska or North Dakota.

He's run a much stronger campaign than in 2008, so he would have earned at least 1 state win in 2 cycles.

Sometimes I feel sorry for the old man.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

His only real shot at this point is Alaska.

At this point, I'm preparing to support Gary Johnson in the general.

[J. J.]

I think there is a shot at Alaska.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

He has an outside shot at Alaska.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

If not- then his campaign will have truly fallen below expecations

[Volrath50]

He has an okay chance at Alaska, and an outside chance at North Dakota, though I personally doubt he'll get either.

[argentarius]

He has a chance at Alaska and North Dakota of course. He might just win in Alaska because he's the only one who cares about it.

[Is Totally Not Feeblepizza.]

Hopefully North Dakota and Idaho. Maybe Alaska. Probably not, though.

[Wisconsin+17]

No, he just doesn't have the base.

Socons prefer Santorum over him.

Moderates prefer Romney over him.

It's pretty hard to win a state that's in the goldilocks zone, too many moderates, Romney wins, too many social conservatives, Santorum wins.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I feel like he has a maybe 30% chance of winning Alaska, a 10% chance of winning North Dakota, and a 5% chance of winning Idaho, though he has much better odds of coming in 2nd in all 3, and will at least be able to pick up delegates.

[Franzl]

I feel like he has a maybe 30% chance of winning Alaska, a 10% chance of winning North Dakota, and a 5% chance of winning Idaho, though he has much better odds of coming in 2nd in all 3, and will at least be able to pick up delegates.

I think we need to draw a line between "chance of winning" and "% of votes" he can possibly get.

His floor is relatively high in Idaho, certainly higher than in North Dakota or in Alaska, but I think it's virtually impossible for Paul to win Idaho. The demographics (Mormons) are just not possible to beat there.

He might very well get a greater percentage of the votes in Idaho, actually, than in Alaska, but Alaska doesn't really have a built-in advantage for anyone, so crazy things could happen.

[BigSkyBob]

No, he just doesn't have the base.

Socons prefer Santorum over him.

Moderates prefer Romney over him.

It's pretty hard to win a state that's in the goldilocks zone, too many moderates, Romney wins, too many social conservatives, Santorum wins.

And, it has to have an open primary. The coalition of the morally defective Ron Paul draws upon tends to not register as Republicans.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If not- then his campaign will have truly fallen below expecations

Not really, he is in second delegate wise. Paul supporters stayed and voted for the state convention delegates while everyone else went home.

[Tidewater_Wave]

I don't think he'll win any states, but will stay in until the convention like last time to make a point.