Attack on Iran would Fail.

[Beet]

"Iran is a vast, populous and sophisticated country with a nuclear programme that began under the shah. It may have secret sites that escape unscathed. Even if all its sites are hit, Iran’s nuclear know-how cannot be bombed out of existence. Nor can its network of suppliers at home and abroad. It has stocks of uranium in various stages of enrichment; an unknown amount would survive an attack, while the rest contaminated an unforeseeable area. Iran would probably withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, under which its uranium is watched by the International Atomic Energy Agency. At that point its entire programme would go underground—literally and figuratively. If Iran decided it needed a bomb, it would then be able to pursue one with utmost haste and in greater secrecy. Saudi Arabia and the others might conclude that they, too, needed to act pre-emptively to gain their own deterrents.
...
Short of occupation, the world cannot eliminate Iran’s capacity to gain the bomb. It can only change its will to possess one. Just now that is more likely to come about through sanctions and diplomacy than war."

http://www.economist.com/node/21548233

[dead0man]

And that's why they haven't been attacked yet, but when sanctions and diplomacy fail, what then?  We wait, they get a warhead.  They do nothing, the rest of us do nothing.  Then they have 3.  Then 5.  Then 7.  Then 10.  Then 8.  Why 8?  'cause they gave 2 to the Hezzies.  Now what?  The world will just wait and find out where the surprise will happen.

Is that likely?  Nah.  Even if nobody does nothing, and Iran continues to do what it wants there is what...a 5% chance Tel Aviv gets a new crater in the next 20 years?  Maybe a .2% chance for London.  Even in a worst case scenerio, me, you, nearly everybody reading this is pretty safe.....but I can certainly understand why the busboy at your friendly neighborhood Applebee's in Haifa would be concerned.

[dead0man]

..cause it's not like they (Iran/friends of Iran) could get away with it and that's what will keep them from doing anything even if they do get "the bomb".  I'm pretty sure science can tell investigators where the bomb came from, but what then.  Tactical nukes on all of their suspected underground hidey holes would be in order, but I bet we'd be pussies about it and still stick with conventional weapons.  Still, the people in charge know they won't be in charge for long if they do anything like that.

....but like I said, I can understand the concern of your everyday Israeli (or for that matter, your everyday Saudi or Sunni Iraqi).

[k-onmmunist]

..cause it's not like they (Iran/friends of Iran) could get away with it and that's what will keep them from doing anything even if they do get "the bomb".  I'm pretty sure science can tell investigators where the bomb came from, but what then.  Tactical nukes on all of their suspected underground hidey holes would be in order, but I bet we'd be pussies about it and still stick with conventional weapons.  Still, the people in charge know they won't be in charge for long if they do anything like that.

....but like I said, I can understand the concern of your everyday Israeli (or for that matter, your everyday Saudi or Sunni Iraqi).

Why don't you have a R-NE avatar yet?

[Cory]

Why 8?  'cause they gave 2 to the Hezzies.  Now what?  The world will just wait and find out where the surprise will happen.

This pisses me off, why in gods name do some people seriously think that Iran would be freaking stupid enough to give ing HEZBOLLAH a nuclear weapon?

[Sbane]

Why 8?  'cause they gave 2 to the Hezzies.  Now what?  The world will just wait and find out where the surprise will happen.

This pisses me off, why in gods name do some people seriously think that Iran would be freaking stupid enough to give ing HEZBOLLAH a nuclear weapon?

Paranoia? Who knows?

Giving Hezbollah a weapon, and them using it, would lead to Iran's end. I think they understand that, and while some idiots may think so, they are not suicidal. The Iranian leadership is not Al Qaeda (and even Al Qaeda and other terrorist group's leaders have others do the dirty work).

[tpfkaw]

Perhaps if the US et. al weren't constantly threatening "regime change" in Iran and elsewhere they wouldn't be so interested in obtaining a bomb - this of course assuming they are interested in obtaining a bomb in the first place, given that a. Leon Panetta has admitted there's absolutely no evidence that they are, and b. it would be much easier and cheaper just to buy one or a couple from Pakistan or North Korea.

[Silent Hunter]

Perhaps if the US et. al weren't constantly threatening "regime change" in Iran

When was the last time the US threatened regime change against Iran? I've not had anything like that. Attacks on the nuclear programme (which they are legally obliged to suspend under UN resolutions), yes, but not full-scale regime change.

[tpfkaw]

Perhaps if the US et. al weren't constantly threatening "regime change" in Iran

When was the last time the US threatened regime change against Iran?

It's official US policy.

[Silent Hunter]

Perhaps if the US et. al weren't constantly threatening "regime change" in Iran

When was the last time the US threatened regime change against Iran?

It's official US policy.

Fair enough, I stand corrected. However,Iran's apparent attempts to get a bomb, belligerent rhetoric and suppression of dissent aren't making it many friends worldwide. Many of us want that regime gone.