Mitt Romney will be the Republican Nominee

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

So, did you over-estimate the GOP in congressional races in '06/'08 as well?

I have generally overestimated GOP gains and underestimated GOP loses from 2002-2010 (the election cycles while I have been on this forum).

In 2002, I was wrong on the SD Senate race (Thune lost by only 500 votes), and I was wrong on the LA Senate run-off (the GOP contender is my wife’s cousin)…so I predicted a +4 GOP pickup, but the GOP only gained 2.  

In 2004, IIRC, I predicted a +5 GOP pickup, and they picked up 4.  In the race for POTUS, the only state I got wrong was FL, and only because as I flipping channels the night before and came across a FOXNews interview with Jeb Bush and misinterpreted his stupid looking blank stare as a sign Bush43 was in trouble in FL.

Though I think I did underestimate the GOP House performance in either 2002 or 2004.

In 2006 and 2008, I under predicted GOP Senate loses by a couple each cycle.  And I predicted an Obama victory of 4 points and he won by 7.

In 2010, I predicted a GOP House gain of 70, and GOP Senate gain of 10 and the GOP picked up 64? House seats and 6 Senate seats

So, I was definitely better in 2002/4/10 than in 2006/08 and I was usually skewed towards the GOP, except my Kerry FL pick in 2004 and the GOP House of either ‘02 or ‘04.

But I have no clue who Newt would pick for a VP, though I hope it is Rubio.

[ucscgaldamez]

I wonder if Gingrich fundraising is significantly going up. I would think so.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if Gingrich fundraising is significantly going up. I would think so.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/dec/07/news/la-pn-gingrich-fundraising-20111207

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

A few weeks ago, it was Romney's race to lose. Now it's Gingrich's race to lose.

[President von Cat]

People are just now beginning to really pay attention to the GOP field - and now that they are, we are seeing Romney lose support. The more people get to know Mitt Romney, the less they like him (except for that annoying troll Politico).

[Politico]

People are just now beginning to really pay attention to the GOP field - and now that they are, we are seeing Romney lose support. The more people get to know Mitt Romney, the less they like him (except for that annoying troll Politico).

Actually, I've seen data indicating that Romney is now the number two choice of most Gingrich supporters. In other words, guess who benefits once people become informed about the information that is being disseminated about Gingrich? Or do you really think people are going to stick with Gingrich once they hear about the $300,000 fine, the loveseat with Pelosi, the using mirrors in outer-space to light highways, the cheating, the fact his wife is younger than his daughters, etc., etc.

[Yelnoc]

His seductively hard nips.

Hmm...that was meant for the Ron Paul thread.  Perhaps I should come down .... /

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I've seen data indicating that Romney is now the number two choice of most Gingrich supporters.

I guess I'm not most Gingrich supporters then.  I'll tepidly vote for Mitt in the general election if I must, but I won't be voting for him in January.  If nothing else, I'll cast a protest vote for Ron if Newt implodes and Huntsman and Santorum have called it quits.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

That'll be the day, when the Republicans nominate a pro-abortion, pro-health care, Mormon nominee. Kids these days.

Honestly, I don't think he'll win the nomination. He's everything the Republicans don't want to be in 2012. Flippant and bourgeois - well, more flippant and bourgeois than any other current candidate in the race.

[nkpatel1279]

In a general election matchup between Obama-D vs. Romney-R, Which Kerry 2004 state other than NH is Romney likely to win. MI,PA,and WI are Slight Lean Obama States. Obama-D also wins IA and NM, states Gore narrowly won in 2000 but narrowly went for Bush in 2004. The Tossup states are CO,FL,NV,NC,OH,and VA. Obama wins CO,NV plus either NC,OH,or VA.
In a general election matchup between Obama-D vs Gingrich-R, it is highly unlikely that any Gore 2000 and or Kerry 2004 State is likely to go to Gingrich.  Gingrich wins all of the McCain states plus IN,FL,NC,OH,and VA.  He ends up with 266ev.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Lots of naysayers in this thread, who are most likely going to be proven wrong.

[Jacobtm]

Atlas forum is officially awful at predicting primaries.

D v. R I think we have much more cred, but I think everyone should face facts that the ''board consensus'' in no way is predictive or indicative of particularly prescient people.

[ShamDam]

Bump.

[LastVoter]

Atlas forum is officially awful at predicting primaries.

D v. R I think we have much more cred, but I think everyone should face facts that the ''board consensus'' in no way is predictive or indicative of particularly prescient people.

Seems to me like half of us could be right or wrong. This primary is really hard to predict though.