Who's more likely to be the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, Jeb Bush or Ron Paul?

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade says Paul, but just barely.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Paul, a brokered convention would not pick Bush.

[Whacker77]

Paul, a brokered convention would not pick Bush.

I'll take that bet.  I think there's every reason to believe Bush would be the compromise choice at a contested convention.

[Eraserhead]

Bush, of course.

[TomC]

Bush- There are too many issues Paul differs with the mainstream GOP on, and I see no evidence Paul could win the nomination outright.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Paul, a brokered convention would not pick Bush.

I'll take that bet.  I think there's every reason to believe Bush would be the compromise choice at a contested convention.

America is simply not ready for another Bush. Daniels, Christie, or Huntsman are the good compromise candidates at a convention.

[Oakvale]

Bush, obviously.

[Averroës Nix]

Bush.

almost negligible > completely implausible.

[Whacker77]

Paul, a brokered convention would not pick Bush.

I'll take that bet.  I think there's every reason to believe Bush would be the compromise choice at a contested convention.

America is simply not ready for another Bush. Daniels, Christie, or Huntsman are the good compromise candidates at a convention.

Please, this is so dumb.  You sound like a Democrat.  In a hypothetical matchup where Obama remains unpopular, voter in Ohio tired of Obama are going to vote for him just because Jeb's last name is Bush?  Sorry.  Don't buy it.

[Lief 🗽]

There is no realistic scenario in which Ron Paul wins the Republican nomination. None at all.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Paul, a brokered convention would not pick Bush.

I'll take that bet.  I think there's every reason to believe Bush would be the compromise choice at a contested convention.

America is simply not ready for another Bush. Daniels, Christie, or Huntsman are the good compromise candidates at a convention.

Please, this is so dumb.  You sound like a Democrat.  In a hypothetical matchup where Obama remains unpopular, voter in Ohio tired of Obama are going to vote for him just because Jeb's last name is Bush?  Sorry.  Don't buy it.

No; The Bush family has ruined itself. A Democrat? Even Republicans hate the Bushes. Jeb Bush, while 100% better than his brother George, is still awful. As a Republican, I would much rather prefer Daniels, Huntsman, or Christie, all of whom are actually Conservative, compared to Bush.

[I'm JewCon in name only.]

Bush (normal)

[milhouse24]

John will turn it down, he doesn't think he can beat Obama in 2012 at the top of the ticket.

[morgieb]

Broken convention won't happen. Paul.

[Oakvale]

Broken convention won't happen. Paul.

It very likely won't, but it's still more likely than a Paul nomination.

There's a 0.0001% chance of a brokered convention, but a 0% chance of Paul being nominated.

[tpfkaw]

There is a chance that the 9/11 conspiracy theories are true, and also the truth will come out.*  That chance is higher than a brokered convention picking Bush.

*Paul isn't a truther but he'd surely become vastly more popular were they proven correct.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Bush.

almost negligible > completely implausible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The chance of either is so negligible it's not even worth debating, like 0.0015% vs. 0.0014%. It's like 1/10th as likely as someone other than Obama being the Democratic nominee.

I'd put the odds of either being the nominee about par with the election not happening because of the Large Hadron Collider destroying the Earth or the military coup type predictions Sam Spade was talking about in 2008. Or the supposed 2012 Mayan prophecy rendering whoever wins the election irrelevant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Paul, a brokered convention would not pick Bush.

I'll take that bet.  I think there's every reason to believe Bush would be the compromise choice at a contested convention.

America is simply not ready for another Bush. Daniels, Christie, or Huntsman are the good compromise candidates at a convention.

Please, this is so dumb.  You sound like a Democrat.  In a hypothetical matchup where Obama remains unpopular, voter in Ohio tired of Obama are going to vote for him just because Jeb's last name is Bush?  Sorry.  Don't buy it.

Why would they vote for him? Because they're tired of Obama? Well then why would they not vote for Romney or Santorum over him then?

I mean yes they have baggage but having someone named Bush coronated in such an un-democratic matter is far more baggage. There's plenty of right-leaning swing voters who still wouldn't be too fond of Bush now who would be disgusted by the whole thing and the entire "The Bushes dominate the GOP and it does their every bidding" thing that would be driven home then that they would likely just stay home. Do you people drooling over a brokered convention ever stop to think just how awful that would look? I mean imagine if Hillary managed to get an overwhelming majority of superdelegates to throw her a coup in 2008 and how terrible that would come across as. This would be even worse, since at least Hillary ran an actual campaign, closer to the idiot right winger "Hillary steals the nomination at the convention" scenarios in 2004.

[TheGlobalizer]

I chose Paul, but I'm probably thinking too highly of GOP power-brokers.  Jeb should be the last person in the world that they nominate, even though I think he's getting a bum deal because of his brother.

[Brandon H]

Going to agree that even if Jeb Bush could be the greatest president ever, his future is damaged just by being a Bush.