When does Romney effectively wrap up the nomination?

[ShadowRocket]

Maybe it's too early to ask, what is everyone's guess as to when Romney crosses the 1,144 delegate threshold needed to wrap up the Republican nomination? I'm thinking late April unless Gingrich or Santorum somehow start to build some momemtum.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Maybe it's too early to ask, what is everyone's guess as to when Romney crosses the 1,144 delegate threshold needed to wrap up the Republican nomination? I'm thinking late April unless Gingrich or Santorum somehow start to build some momemtum.

That's what I would guess.  Probably after Pennsylvania.

[Tender Branson]

Later than he would like it. Maybe in late March or in April ...

[Joe Biden 2020]

Later than he would like it. Maybe in late March or in April ...

True, it would be later than he would like, but even the beginning of May still gives him 6 months to beat up on President Obama.

[Erc]

I assume Gingrich and Santorum will drop out (or will be considered completely irrelevant, a la Paul) before Romney actually gets the magic number of delegates.  End of March at the absolute latest.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Later than he would like it. Maybe in late March or in April ...

True, it would be later than he would like, but even the beginning of May still gives him 6 months to beat up on President Obama.

And be beat up on by him.

[tmthforu94]

Romney will reach the necessary delegates on April 24th when the Northeast votes.

[Mr. Morden]

The calendar is *much* more backloaded this time, compared to 2008.  I'd have to do the math, but I don't think we even reach the halfway point in delegates until April.  So even if his three rivals dropped out tomorrow, and Romney won every delegate from now on, he wouldn't clinch the nomination until April.  (Remember, both Texas and New York don't vote until April, and California doesn't vote until June.)

It really depends on how long the other candidates stay in the race.  If Paul and at least one out of the two of Gingrich and Santorum stays in until the end, then my guess is that Romney doesn't mathematically clinch the nomination until June 5.  (Which is actually the second biggest primary day, in terms of delegates awarded.  March 6 being first.)