Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Here is what is decided so far:

Here's what I see with the stronger of Romney or Santorum:

PPP shows Ohio a likely Obama win outside of the margin of error for now. So far it seems that President Obama is behind by the same huge margins in the States that he lost, and he is winning by slightly-lesser margins than those, on the whole, in the States that he is winning.

I must say I am a little surprised that you think Indiana and Missouri are more likely to go Obama than Arizona.

PPP actually showed Obama tied in the most recent Missouri poll, I don't know about Indiana.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would like to see a map like this where the result are produced from Romney's approval ratings, or at least one produced by comparing he and Obama's.
That would at least have the potential to be telling.

Romney doesn't have approval ratings. He has favorable ratings which are different from approval numbers and they shouldn't be cross compared. 

[Link]

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/gallup-state-numbers-predict-huge-obama-loss/352881

Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. If President Obama carries only those states where he had a net positive approval rating in 2011 (e.g. Michigan where he is up 48 percent to 44 percent), Obama would lose the 2012 election to the Republican nominee 323 electoral votes to 215.

Gallup adds:

    Overall, Obama averaged 44% job approval in his third year in office, down from 47% in his second year. His approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in most states, with Wyoming, Connecticut, and Maine showing a marginal increase, and Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, Arizona, West Virginia, Michigan, and Georgia showing declines of less than a full percentage point. The greatest declines were in Hawaii, South Dakota, Nebraska, and New Mexico

LOL!  Another Reaganfan partisan hackfest.  I clicked on your stupid link.  It went straight to the Washington Examiner website.  They took an old Gallup poll and then baked in their own stupid Republican wet dream commentary.  Let's see what the web has to say about the Washington Examiner...



Remeber if it is a Reaganfan thread do your homework.  100% guarantee the link will lead to mindless right wing drivel.  Ever notice how he posts this garbage and never sticks around to defend it?

[pbrower2a]

Here is what is decided so far:

Here's what I see with the stronger of Romney or Santorum:

PPP shows Ohio a likely Obama win outside of the margin of error for now. So far it seems that President Obama is behind by the same huge margins in the States that he lost, and he is winning by slightly-lesser margins than those, on the whole, in the States that he is winning.

I must say I am a little surprised that you think Indiana and Missouri are more likely to go Obama than Arizona.

Romney has a lead in Arizona. When every Republican was behind Obama by at least 6% in Ohio, I had to figure that Indiana had become a toss-up.

What is so telling is that I took Ohio out of the toss-up category. Arizona, Georgia, and who-knows-what-else could conceivably go tossup.      

[TheGlobalizer]

I would like to see a map like this where the result are produced from Romney's approval ratings, or at least one produced by comparing he and Obama's.
That would at least have the potential to be telling.

Romney doesn't have approval ratings. He has favorable ratings which are different from approval numbers and they shouldn't be cross compared. 

Always important to remember.  Obama's numbers are a lot harder to move and Romney's favorables are impacted by the primary intra-party comparisons as much as comparisons with Obama.  At certain presidential job approval levels, even a net-negative favorability candidate would be a winner.

[pbrower2a]

I would like to see a map like this where the result are produced from Romney's approval ratings, or at least one produced by comparing he and Obama's.
That would at least have the potential to be telling.

Romney doesn't have approval ratings. He has favorable ratings which are different from approval numbers and they shouldn't be cross compared. 

Always important to remember.  Obama's numbers are a lot harder to move and Romney's favorables are impacted by the primary intra-party comparisons as much as comparisons with Obama.  At certain presidential job approval levels, even a net-negative favorability candidate would be a winner.

Those approval ratings would have to be very low. One would have to see matching wordage (favorable vs. favorable... or approval vs. approval)

[TheGlobalizer]

I would like to see a map like this where the result are produced from Romney's approval ratings, or at least one produced by comparing he and Obama's.
That would at least have the potential to be telling.

Romney doesn't have approval ratings. He has favorable ratings which are different from approval numbers and they shouldn't be cross compared. 

Always important to remember.  Obama's numbers are a lot harder to move and Romney's favorables are impacted by the primary intra-party comparisons as much as comparisons with Obama.  At certain presidential job approval levels, even a net-negative favorability candidate would be a winner.

Those approval ratings would have to be very low. One would have to see matching wordage (favorable vs. favorable... or approval vs. approval)

Not really, mid-40s seems to be a threshold if you look at various analyses.  There isn't really an apples-to-apples comparison between an incumbent and a challenger, but one can come up with analyses that factor both measures meaningfully, they just have to weight the incumbent numbers more heavily.

[pbrower2a]

Here is what is decided so far:

NOTE THE CHANGE:

Here's what I see with the stronger of Romney or Santorum:

PPP shows Ohio a likely Obama win outside of the margin of error for now, and WMUR-TV/Granite State shows a vastly different political climate in New Hampshire. So far it seems that President Obama is behind by the same huge margins in the States that he lost, and he is winning by slightly-lesser margins than those, on the whole, in the States that he is winning. I suspect that Arizona is more in the  "iffy" column than is New Hampshire.