What caucuses does Paul have a chance in?

[Old Man Willow]

If any.

[Lief 🗽]

I think he has a decent chance in all of them.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It would be amazing if the first 3 contests went to difference candidates and then Paul still managed to be a 4th candidate to win a contest.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Depends on how he does and what happens to the other candidates, I guess

regardless of what happens (as in, unless Paul does something catastrophically stupid), he'll probably do at least quite well (if not win):

Minnesota, Nevada, Washington, Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Maine, Louisiana, Wyoming, Oregon, Vermont

[RI]

He has a shot to win any of them other than Nevada, Idaho, and possibly Missouri.

[Lief 🗽]

This is super inexact and meaningless, but let's do some quick math. In the contests so far, Paul did 2.5x better in Iowa than he did in 2008, 3x better in NH, and looks like he might do 5x better in South Carolina. So let's be conservative and say he's tripled his base of support since 2008. So listing the caucus states (from before McCain won the nomination and Paul's numbers increased everywhere):

Nevada: 14% x 3 = 42%
Colorado: 8% x 3 = 24%
Minnesota: 16% x 3 = 48%
Washington: 21% x 3 = 63%
Alaska: 17% x 3 = 51%
N. Dakota: 21% x 3 = 63%
Kansas: 11% x 3 = 33%

So I'd say his best bets for caucus wins are Nevada, Minnesota, Washington, Alaska and North Dakota. He might also be able to win the Vermont primary. Puerto Rico and Hawaii caucuses are also possibilities. In 2008 he got 24%, but that was late in the primary when McCain had already won, so it's hard to compare it. But Idaho on paper traditionally likes candidates like Paul. Mormons might be a majority of Republican caucus-goers there though, not sure.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

North Dakota and Alaska are most likely.

[Mehmentum]

If Paul can win Nevada (its hard to say what the state of the field is here because of the lack of polling there), I feel like he could potentially sweep all of the caucuses that are after Nevada, (Maine, Minnasotta, Colorado, and Washington).

Super Tuesday has quite a few caucuses is well.  Idaho wouldn't go for him though, too many mormons there.  But Paul could be able to win Alaska and North Dakota even without momentum. 

Unrelated, but the Vermont primary might be a competitive super Tuesday primary.  Paul did best in the part of NH along the Vermont border.  Vermont is an open primary and there are a lot more democrats/independents in Vermont than in New Hampshire.   

The two other primaries that Paul has a chance in are Montana and South Dakota.

[angus]

It's a good question.  In 2008, Ron Paul's average share in caucus states was 16%, whereas his average in primary states was about 9%.  Clearly he does better in caucus states.  His best state last time was Nevada.  His best money state last time was North Dakota, on the basis of contributions to Paul as a percentage of all GOP contributions. 

There was a nice analysis of Ron Paul's "unexplained performance" by Jason Sorens of the political science department at U Buffalo.  He develops a relationship in which the logarithm of paul's percent in all states are a function of turnout, number of candidates on that state's ballot, and whether it was a primary or caucus state.  His "caucus" scaling is a bit arbitrary, but otherwise it's a sound analysis.  According to Sorens' analysis, Paul's "best caucus state" in 2008 was Idaho.  Now, Romney is a bigger factor this year and Mormonism can't be discounted, so you might look elsewhere.   Going down his rankings, the next pure (unmixed) caucus state is North Dakota, which votes on March 6.  That, combined with the fact that ND is such a large Ron Paul money state makes me think that it has a shot at being Paul's best state for raw vote percentage share in this year's caucuses.