Iowa is Now Tightening

[Politico]

Yesterday, we posted an Iowa poll from the University of Iowa. It showed Gingrich with a nine and a half point lead (29.8 to 20.3) over Romney, who was in second place. However, there was an aspect of the poll that wasn’t reported here: the decline in Gingrich’s support that the poll captured.

The poll was conducted over a one week period. According to Reuters, who co-sponsored the poll, during the first half of the survey Gingrich clocked in at a whopping 37.7%; however, during the last three days of polling, he had fallen to 24.4% — a decline of 13.3% in a matter of days.

The pollsters even concluded, "Our results show that his support may be starting to slide, as it has with previous frontrunners."

It will be really interesting to watch the polls from the Hawkeye State over the next couple of weeks and see what happens…

UPDATE: Here are the results from just the final three days of the poll:

    Gingrich – 24.4%
    Romney – 19.3%
    Paul – 13.0%
    Perry – 10.4%
    Bachmann – 7.4%
    Santorum – 7.0%
    Huntsman – 0.7%
    Undecided – 13.8%

Source: http://race42012.com/2011/12/13/about-that-iowa-poll-from-this-morning-the-newt-slide-begins/

Is Perry gaining traction because of the Brokeback Mountain ad? What is up with Santorum and Bachmann?

[Yelnoc]

Looks like Santorum is investing all of his CP's into putting down foot soldiers and barnstorming.  If he had enough money to start running televisions adds, he could really break out.  Regardless, Gingrich and Romney have too strong of a lead in the other 49 states; the momentum from Iowa won't be enough to win the nomination.

[NHI]

If Gingrich wins Iowa, then he'll carry by a narrow margin, with Romney coming in a close second. I think we're seeing the end of the Gingrich surge.

[M]

Here's the full poll:

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2011/december/121211Caucus_Hawkeye_Poll_topline.pdf

If Gingrich is loosing steam, it isn't to Romney: he is sliding as well, though less dramatically - as, surprisingly, is Bachmann. Perry, Paul, and Santorum show dramatic increases.

Of course, I'd like to see all of this bourn out by other polls. It could be so much white noise.

The central premise, though, isn't that Romney is picking up in Iowa: it's that six candidates are making a plausible play for the state (some more than others, of course). Romney or Gingrich or Paul could win; any of them could also come in third or fourth.

A clearer pattern might emerge by caucus night. Otherwise, it could be a real nailbiter.

[Politico]

Romney and Paul have the greatest organization capabilities in the state, so if this becomes a five or six-person free-for-all I see those two finishing closely on top. Gingrich needs to win Iowa or he will go into a tailspin, especially if Romney bests him. After all, everybody (including Romney and Gingrich) now agrees that Gingrich is the front-runner.

[GLPman]

If Gingrich wins Iowa, then he'll carry by a narrow margin, with Romney coming in a close second. I think we're seeing the end of the Gingrich surge.

It's definitely possible that we're seeing the beginning of Gingrich's end. Gingrich's status as the front-runner has exposed him to more media coverage, which has in-turn showed voters just how many skeletons the former Speaker has in his closet. Iowa is going to be close. At this point, though, I'd still bet on Newt besting Paul and Romney in Iowa.

[cavalcade]

PPP is claiming that their Iowa polling is showing a tightening race...between Newt and Paul.