What would be the most varied early state results?

[retromike22]

What would be the most varied early state results? Basically the most realistic prediction that results in the early states having different winners and in different orders. The early states being Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada.

Iowa Caucus Results:
Paul 23
Perry 21
Gingrich 20
Romney 15
Bachmann 9 (drops out)
Santorum 7 (drops out)
Huntsman 5

In Iowa, it is a close result, with Paul winning and Perry pulling out a surprise 2nd because of the social conservatives coalescing around him as opposed to Bachmann and Santorum. Gingrich plays the result as a 3 way tie. Romney is heavily damaged, as he was aiming for at least 2nd.

Due to a bad debate performance by Romney, in which he angrily states "I deserve the Presidency," his support declines further. In contrast, Huntsman has a emotional moment on the campaign trail that humanizes him similar to Hillary Clinton in 2008. Huntsman begins to take a big chunk of Romney's support.

New Hampshire Results:
Romney 24
Huntsman 22
Paul 21
Perry 18
Gingrich 15

Huntsman surprises by coming in second, and this is bigger news that Romney's 2% win. Paul comes in third, and Perry takes some of Gingrich's votes.

The contest shapes up as The Establishment Moderate/Conservatives (Huntsman and Romney) vs. independents and the youth (Paul) vs. the Tea Party Conservative Gingrich vs. the Social Conservative (Perry)

South Carolina:
Perry: 35
Gingrich: 30
Huntsman: 15
Romney: 10
Paul: 10

Perry wins this, but Gingrich comes back strongly enough in 2nd.  Perry has another "oops" moment. A very, very bad oops moment. Or says something racially sensitive. Gingrich takes advantage of this.

Florida:
Gingrich: 30
Huntsman 28
Perry: 20
Romney: 12
Paul: 10

Romney loses more support to Huntsman, enough that Huntsman is now the establishment's choice.

Nevada:
Huntsman 35
Gingrich 25
Perry 18 (drops out)
Paul 12
Romney 10 (drops out)

Following this, a three way battle between Huntsman, Gingrich, and Paul. I imagine Gingrich winning this in the end. Possibly a brokered convention, where Paul gives his delegates to Gingrich in return for some political positions or the vice-presidency. Maybe Huntsman calls this a corrupt bargain and runs as an independent?

[tmthforu94]

Iowa: Santorum
New Hampshire: Romney
South Carolina: Perry
Florida: Gingrich
Nevada: Paul

Only somewhat realistic thing I could see - Nevada is a caucus, which means it'll come down to Paul and Romney. I don't think Gingrich would have much of a chance in Florida if he lost SC and IA, similar to Giuliani in 2008, but you never know.

[Mr. Morden]

Iowa: Santorum
New Hampshire: Romney
South Carolina: Perry
Florida: Gingrich
Nevada: Paul

Then Bachmann wins Minnesota and Huntsman wins Colorado.  Buddy Roemer wins Maine....

[Stranger in a strange land]

Iowa -> Paul (this is actually somewhat realistic, Bachmann can at best hope for 2nd place; Perry and Santorum have no chance at all)
New Hampshire -> Romney
South Carolina -> Gingrich (losing Iowa wouldn't sink him, and I see Paul having very little traction or appeal in SC)
Florida -> Romney (narrowly)
Nevada -> Paul

The other relevent point here is what it will take for Perry, Bachmann, and Santorum to drop out. Perry's campaign has been one embarrassing epic fail after another, but he still has a considerable war chest, and has actually been showing signs of life in the polls. Bachmann and Santorum are running out of money, but Santorum has nothing better to do, and he might try to stay in just to pick up a few delegates here and there, especially if a brokered convention looks likely.