2012: Ohio or Virginia?

[Devils30]

http://nationaljournal.com/columns/obama-s-choice-ohio-or-virginia-20111115

I somewhat think this article is misleading b/c Obama has more than enough campaign cash to play for  every state he won in 2008 and then some. I believe his odds of winning VA are greater but the Ohio strategy is the way to go. i don't think college educated voters are going to be flocking back to the GOP

[Wonkish1]

http://nationaljournal.com/columns/obama-s-choice-ohio-or-virginia-20111115

I somewhat think this article is misleading b/c Obama has more than enough campaign cash to play for  every state he won in 2008 and then some. I believe his odds of winning VA are greater but the Ohio strategy is the way to go. i don't think college educated voters are going to be flocking back to the GOP

I read this article before too. And this isn't a money argument because of the obvious problems in that you have to pick positions where at least for now white collar vs. blue collar folks on the whole don't agree. So you have to pick a favorite essentially.

For me its obvious you go the populist route because both Newt and Romney will perform much better among white collar college educated independents than both W. and McCain. So I'm starting to think that the ideal battleground for Obama may end up being Ohio not Virginia.

[Saxwsylvania]

he should pick virgnia it is trending democrat, northern vi is strong liberal with many black voters who come from d.c.

[Ty440]

he should pick virgnia it is trending democrat, northern vi is strong liberal with many black voters who come from d.c.

Not to mention the growing Hispanic population.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think Obama wins both, but Ohio will be a tougher sell.

[Eraserhead]

I guess I'm one of the few to think he is more likely to win Ohio? Hmm.

Well, anyway, if he wins either it's over for the Republicans unless they can somehow pull Pennsylvania or something.

If he loses both, he still has a shot by cobbling smaller states together or taking Florida.

[Devils30]

   Gingrich will never attract the college-educated crowd. It was under his Congress that the most educated areas such as NJ, Eastern PA, Long Island and South FL moved sharply toward the Dems. Check out the 1996 trend map and you'll see.
   The Ohio strategy will work best nationally and in Virginia. I dont think there's much resistance among even upper-middle class voters to bringing millionaires tax rates back to the Clinton era or a tad higher.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Focus on Virginia.  Ohio is a swing state that could go either way with every election, but Virginia is one of those "blue" states we can actually put into the Democratic (or lean-Democratic) column.  The Democrats can lose Ohio and probably still win, but if the Republicans start losing southern states, they'd have to take most everything else to pull off a victory.  Or at least a narrow one.

Of course, putting North Carolina in play and campaigning there (like having the convention in Charlotte) would probably have some effect on Virginia just because it's a neighboring state.  If North Carolina doesn't go GOP, neither will the election.

[Ty440]

  Gingrich will never attract the college-educated crowd. It was under his Congress that the most educated areas such as NJ, Eastern PA, Long Island and South FL moved sharply toward the Dems. Check out the 1996 trend map and you'll see.
   The Ohio strategy will work best nationally and in Virginia. I dont think there's much resistance among even upper-middle class voters to bringing millionaires tax rates back to the Clinton era or a tad higher.

Wonkish can't possibly think Gingrich will play well in Montgomery County Pa, In Jefferson County CO, In Loudoun  County, Va.

Surely he can't be that naive.

[Wonkish1]

  Gingrich will never attract the college-educated crowd. It was under his Congress that the most educated areas such as NJ, Eastern PA, Long Island and South FL moved sharply toward the Dems. Check out the 1996 trend map and you'll see.
   The Ohio strategy will work best nationally and in Virginia. I dont think there's much resistance among even upper-middle class voters to bringing millionaires tax rates back to the Clinton era or a tad higher.

You're forgetting that in 96 that you had Bill F*ing Clinton running in that race not Newt. Bill may have started out as a blue collar favorite in 92, but by 96 he was the star of the college educated. That had nothing to do with Newt.

Newt is the only person other than Clinton who can pull off a point scored with Christians, the educated, a key primary states voters, and nail the media all in the matter of one sentence. And if Newt is in the race he'll do well with college educated because he will do well with a group of people that make every single answer a logic exercise instead of those that just say what they are for and against and make is short and simple which appeals more towards blue collar workers.

[Wonkish1]

  Gingrich will never attract the college-educated crowd. It was under his Congress that the most educated areas such as NJ, Eastern PA, Long Island and South FL moved sharply toward the Dems. Check out the 1996 trend map and you'll see.
   The Ohio strategy will work best nationally and in Virginia. I dont think there's much resistance among even upper-middle class voters to bringing millionaires tax rates back to the Clinton era or a tad higher.

Wonkish can't possibly think Gingrich will play well in Montgomery County Pa, In Jefferson County CO, In Loudoun  County, Va.

Surely he can't be that naive.

I hope you realize that Newt has lived in Mclean for a decade now. If you don't think he's a better candidate for Northern Virginia than Romney(even though Romney would do better in the most wealthy parts) especially given Virginia's recent history for voting in a few Wonkish officials I don't know what to tell you.

I know Jefferson County, CO pretty well. I have family in CO. I'd say he'd do very well in Jefferson relative to other GOP candidates. And I don't know enough about Montgomery County, PA to comment.

Newt's base of strength will be middle to upper middle class suburbia. That is where he will perform the best relative to what other candidates would do.

Romney's base of strength would most likely be in limiting the D advantage in the white parts of metros, and performing quite well in the inner suburbs. Furthermore he would probably turn out just huge numbers in upper middle class and upper class suburbia. Its likely that places like Douglas county, CO would post some of the highest percentages for the GOP they have ever posted for someone like Romney.

[Skill and Chance]

Focus on Virginia.  Ohio is a swing state that could go either way with every election, but Virginia is one of those "blue" states we can actually put into the Democratic (or lean-Democratic) column.  The Democrats can lose Ohio and probably still win, but if the Republicans start losing southern states, they'd have to take most everything else to pull off a victory.  Or at least a narrow one.

Of course, putting North Carolina in play and campaigning there (like having the convention in Charlotte) would probably have some effect on Virginia just because it's a neighboring state.  If North Carolina doesn't go GOP, neither will the election.

This is plausible, IMO.  Unlikely, but plausible with the Democratic convention in NC.  I call it the creative class strategy gone wrong:

FL is the true clincher for Obama.  The scenarios where the Republican wins with Florida going for Obama are even more ridiculous.  For the Republican candidate, I think the clincher state is CO.  Obama can, barely, win without PA if he takes VA and FL.  The stats seem to argue in favor of the VA strategy on the whole.

[California8429]

  Gingrich will never attract the college-educated crowd. It was under his Congress that the most educated areas such as NJ, Eastern PA, Long Island and South FL moved sharply toward the Dems. Check out the 1996 trend map and you'll see.
   The Ohio strategy will work best nationally and in Virginia. I dont think there's much resistance among even upper-middle class voters to bringing millionaires tax rates back to the Clinton era or a tad higher.

Wonkish can't possibly think Gingrich will play well in Montgomery County Pa, In Jefferson County CO, In Loudoun  County, Va.

Surely he can't be that naive.

Jeffco will go republican. I live there. The Senate race was barely lost there because the entire race was run on abortion (good strategy for the deems but what to screw the public on what matters- the ECONOMY), AG, SOS, Treasurer all won it though and Suthers won in a landslide AFTER challenging ObamaCare. There also is a significant mormon population in north Jeffco that will obviously vote Romney, but will come out in masses against Obama.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Focus on Virginia.  Ohio is a swing state that could go either way with every election, but Virginia is one of those "blue" states we can actually put into the Democratic (or lean-Democratic) column.  The Democrats can lose Ohio and probably still win, but if the Republicans start losing southern states, they'd have to take most everything else to pull off a victory.  Or at least a narrow one.

Of course, putting North Carolina in play and campaigning there (like having the convention in Charlotte) would probably have some effect on Virginia just because it's a neighboring state.  If North Carolina doesn't go GOP, neither will the election.

This is plausible, IMO.  Unlikely, but plausible with the Democratic convention in NC.  I call it the creative class strategy gone wrong:

FL is the true clincher for Obama.  The scenarios where the Republican wins with Florida going for Obama are even more ridiculous.  For the Republican candidate, I think the clincher state is CO.  Obama can, barely, win without PA if he takes VA and FL.  The stats seem to argue in favor of the VA strategy on the whole.

Eh.  I'm not too sure about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania going Republican with North Carolina and Virginia going Democrat.

Colorado will most likely stay Democrat in 2012.  It's gotten very liberal over the years.

[Skill and Chance]

Right now, every Republican other than Romney has this problem.  I really don't see any way around it for Gingrich, etc.

Having Romney flips NH instantly, makes NV a toss-up, and makes PA uncomfortably competitive.  This puts Obama on the spot in VA, OH, and FL (the latter of which can be secured with Rubio).  Romney simply has the better coalition for a close election.

[LastVoter]

Focus on Virginia.  Ohio is a swing state that could go either way with every election, but Virginia is one of those "blue" states we can actually put into the Democratic (or lean-Democratic) column.  The Democrats can lose Ohio and probably still win, but if the Republicans start losing southern states, they'd have to take most everything else to pull off a victory.  Or at least a narrow one.

Of course, putting North Carolina in play and campaigning there (like having the convention in Charlotte) would probably have some effect on Virginia just because it's a neighboring state.  If North Carolina doesn't go GOP, neither will the election.

This is plausible, IMO.  Unlikely, but plausible with the Democratic convention in NC.  I call it the creative class strategy gone wrong:

FL is the true clincher for Obama.  The scenarios where the Republican wins with Florida going for Obama are even more ridiculous.  For the Republican candidate, I think the clincher state is CO.  Obama can, barely, win without PA if he takes VA and FL.  The stats seem to argue in favor of the VA strategy on the whole.

Eh.  I'm not too sure about Wisconsin and Pennsylvania going Republican with North Carolina and Virginia going Democrat.

Colorado will most likely stay Democrat in 2012.  It's gotten very liberal over the years.

This map is really out there, and like he said it's Obama's strategy going very wrong for some reason.

[Lief 🗽]

Virginia's economy is doing much better than Ohio's, and yet Ohio seems to be more receptive to Democrats at the moment.

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia's economy is doing much better than Ohio's, and yet Ohio seems to be more receptive to Democrats at the moment.

Well, Issue 3 has to be concerning in OH if you're a Democrat.  Also, overall, the Dems beat expectations in VA.  None of their State Senate losses came from NOVA, which is very important for next year.  We haven't seen any polls of VA since Obama's modest recovery in approval.  He probably leads there by more than in OH, after accounting for that.

Also, while I don't buy that the governor's approval is important for presidential voting, it probably does start making a difference at the margin when it's 35% (Kasich) vs. 70%(McDonnell).     

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Virginia's quite swingy on a local level, and it usually always elects politicians from the opposite of the incumbent president's party.  I don't believe the results of last Tuesday should be concerning for Obama.

[pbrower2a]

I guess I'm one of the few to think he is more likely to win Ohio? Hmm.

Well, anyway, if he wins either it's over for the Republicans unless they can somehow pull Pennsylvania or something.

If he loses both, he still has a shot by cobbling smaller states together or taking Florida.

Ohio -- the auto industry sees its survival as the result of choices that President Obama made. Ohio also has a wildly-unpopular Republican Governor who will be of no help in the election, much unlike Virginia.

[krazen1211]

Working class white males swung heavily against the Democratic party in 2010 and they still don't like obama.

College educated minorities and women on the other hand mostly didn't to the same degree, but there are hardly enough of them to win an election. The GOP did well enough in Northern Virginia in 2011 to win statewide.

[Torie]

To me Virginia is the critical state given the electoral math, and Romney being in good shape in NH. If the GOP can't carry Ohio, it's over baby, unless something odd happens out in Colorado and Nevada.