IA PrimR: Rasmussen: Newt in command !!!

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Iowa President by Rasmussen on 2011-11-15

Summary:

Gingrich:	32%
Romney:	19%
Cain:	13%
Paul:	10%
Bachmann:	6%
Perry:	6%
Other:	8%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Iowa GOP caucus voters are now certain of their vote and don't expect to change their minds, up from 32% in mid-October. Of those voters who are certain, 30% pick Gingrich, 21% prefer Romney, 16% like Cain and 13% support Paul.

Ron Paul, while placing fourth overall, is also the candidate Iowa voters least want to see win the nomination. Eighteen percent (18%) hold name Paul as the least favorite candidate followed closely by Bachmann at 15%. Thirteen percent (13%) don't want to see Romney or Huntsman grab the nomination, while 11% would like to see Cain miss the nod. Only eight percent (8%) name Gingrich as the candidate they least want to see win.

If their favorite candidate does not win the nomination, 77% of Iowa caucus-goers say they'd still vote for the GOP candidate. Twelve percent (12%) would vote for Obama. If Romney wins the nomination, 32% would consider voting for a third-party candidate, with 16% who would be Very Likely to do so.

Only 73% of Romney voters say they'd vote for the GOP candidate if their man does not win the nomination. Among supporters of Gingrich, Cain, and Perry, nine-out-of-ten are committed to voting for the party nominee.

Ninety percent (90%) of Tea Party activists will vote for whoever the party nominates. However, just 69% of non-Tea Party members express that much loyalty to the GOP.

In Iowa, Gingrich and Romney are seen as the most qualified to be president. Seventy-six percent (76%) say Gingrich is qualified while 71% say that of the former governor. Paul and Perry are viewed as qualified by 51%, while 47% say that of Cain and Santorum. Only 44% think Bachmann is qualified to be Commander in Chief, while even fewer (33%) say that of Huntsman. Nationwide, Romney is still viewed as the most qualified for the White House.

Seventy percent (70%) of Iowa caucus-goers say that every one of the GOP candidates would make a better president than Obama. Twenty-four percent (24%) disagree.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of Iowa caucus-goers have followed stories of the sexual harassment allegations leveled against Cain. Forty-two percent (42%) believe the allegations are at least somewhat likely to be both serious and true, and 41% give Cain's campaign good or excellent marks for its response to the allegations. Twenty-one percent (21%) say the Cain campaign did a poor job handling the allegations. These findings are similar to those found among Republicans nationwide.

[Meeker]

Sweet Jesus

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It's becoming too predictable now.

[King]

To die by your side is such a heavenly way to die.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

lolrasmussen

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

ok, kinda felling sorry of Romney about now.  The guy is about as popular as jock itch.

[greenforest32]

If Newt holds it together during the next four debates (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_%28United_States%29_presidential_debates,_2012#Debates) Iowa is his for the taking.

[FloridaRepublican]

And we all saw how accurate Iowa was 4 years ago...

[NVGonzalez]

Romney nooo....

[Eraserhead]

So now we have three different Iowa polls in a row with radically divergent results? Cool.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So now we have three different Iowa polls in a row with radically divergent results? Cool.

Not radically divergent. They all fit a central "narrative", so to speak.

-Two of three polls show Newt polling fairly well in Iowa
-Two of three polls show Paul polling about as well as Newt/Cain in Iowa
-Three of three polls show Romney performing poorly in Iowa
-Three of three polls show Cain slowing down

Therefore, the most likely conclusion is that Cain, Newt and Paul are in the lead in Iowa, in a style similar to the Selzer poll initially posted.