MA-01: Olver Retires

[krazen1211]

http://www.iberkshires.com/new/story.php?story_id=39726

U.S. Rep. John W. Olver announced on Wednesday his retirement after finishing out this term.



D-1. Redistricting solved.

[tpfkaw]

Except that Western Mass will throw a fit if a Western Mass district is eliminated.

[Talleyrand]

I saw we eliminate Lynch and let Western Mass keep 2 seats so another Liberal Dem can take office.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Western Mass happens to be the obvious part of the state to lose a district and Olver is an old man. So, you know. There's a certain logic here.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

I saw we eliminate Lynch and let Western Mass keep 2 seats so another Liberal Dem can take office.

[Brittain33]

Western mass can throw a fit if it wants, but slow growth and the loss of two seats in eastern Mass in past rounds means they can have two districts like Baltimore can have two districts. You can try, but you have to stretch them way far afield. It is hard to exclude Worcester without crazy tendrils.

[cinyc]

Western mass can throw a fit if it wants, but slow growth and the loss of two seats in eastern Mass in past rounds means they can have two districts like Baltimore can have two districts. You can try, but you have to stretch them way far afield. It is hard to exclude Worcester without crazy tendrils.

Assuming you are correct, because of geography, most of MA-01 will likely stay intact.  Old MA-02 will likely look east instead of west to pick up residents.  And old MA-03 will take on the Worcester County parts of old MA-02 as well as some territory in Hampden, Hampshire or Franklin Counties.  It's probably better to give MA-02 all of Franklin so that the Springfield suburbs don't need to be carved into two districts.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Demographics aside, it's always easier to jettison an empty seat than displace an incumbent. I don't think Massachusetts will make waves here.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Western mass can throw a fit if it wants, but slow growth and the loss of two seats in eastern Mass in past rounds means they can have two districts like Baltimore can have two districts. You can try, but you have to stretch them way far afield. It is hard to exclude Worcester without crazy tendrils.

Assuming you are correct, because of geography, most of MA-01 will likely stay intact.  Old MA-02 will likely look east instead of west to pick up residents.  And old MA-03 will take on the Worcester County parts of old MA-02 as well as some territory in Hampden, Hampshire or Franklin Counties.  It's probably better to give MA-02 all of Franklin so that the Springfield suburbs don't need to be carved into two districts.

It's only better if you prioritize Springfield itself for whatever reason; Franklin and Hampshire form a community of interest, much more so than Hampshire and Hampden.

[lowtech redneck]

Except that Western Mass will throw a fit if a Western Mass district is eliminated.

What are they going to do, vote Republican?

[tpfkaw]

Except that Western Mass will throw a fit if a Western Mass district is eliminated.

What are they going to do, vote Republican?

Quite possibly.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except that Western Mass will throw a fit if a Western Mass district is eliminated.

What are they going to do, vote Republican?

Quite possibly.

Trolling, bist?

[tpfkaw]

Except that Western Mass will throw a fit if a Western Mass district is eliminated.

What are they going to do, vote Republican?

Quite possibly.

Trolling, bist?

Nope, merely having an understanding of Massachusetts politics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Except that Western Mass will throw a fit if a Western Mass district is eliminated.

What are they going to do, vote Republican?

Quite possibly.

Trolling, bist?

Nope, merely having an understanding of Massachusetts politics.

Silvio O. Conte going to rise from the grave then? Would he even be a Republican now?

[minionofmidas]

Except that Western Mass will throw a fit if a Western Mass district is eliminated.

What are they going to do, vote Republican?

Quite possibly.

Trolling, bist?

Nope, merely having an understanding of Massachusetts politics.

Silvio O. Conte going to rise from the grave then? Would he even be a Republican now?

Quite possibly.

[tpfkaw]

This is the 1998 Massachusetts gubernatorial election.



This is the 1996 Massachusetts senate election.



The difference?  Paul Cellucci's running mate was Jane Swift, a State Senator from Western Mass.  Western Mass is extremely provincial in its voting patterns.  The reason why it switched from Republican to Democratic was not because of any switch in ideology, but simply because the collapse of the MA Republican Party meant that the Western Mass political machine had more to gain by voting Democratic than by being the base region of the Massachusetts Republicans.  Call back when you have a clue regarding what you're talking about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That was thirteen years ago; an eternity in American politics. Not only that, it was for a state election. Regardless, it occurs to me that there probably aren't many popular local Republican politicians from that part of the world these days.

[minionofmidas]

And Western Massachusetts still voted to the state's left in that election...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

That was thirteen years ago; an eternity in American politics. Not only that, it was for a state election. Regardless, it occurs to me that there probably aren't many popular local Republican politicians from that part of the world these days.

Right. Actually, I'd go further than that: There are no Republican politicians from western Massachusetts these days, popular or otherwise, outside the western suburbs of Springfield, which aren't exactly a great springboard for higher office.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The Berkshires experienced the same political shift that Vermont did -- from moderate Republicanism to ultra-liberal Democrats. There is zero chance a Republican could get elected from there today. Zero.

[muon2]

Western mass can throw a fit if it wants, but slow growth and the loss of two seats in eastern Mass in past rounds means they can have two districts like Baltimore can have two districts. You can try, but you have to stretch them way far afield. It is hard to exclude Worcester without crazy tendrils.

Assuming you are correct, because of geography, most of MA-01 will likely stay intact.  Old MA-02 will likely look east instead of west to pick up residents.  And old MA-03 will take on the Worcester County parts of old MA-02 as well as some territory in Hampden, Hampshire or Franklin Counties.  It's probably better to give MA-02 all of Franklin so that the Springfield suburbs don't need to be carved into two districts.

It's only better if you prioritize Springfield itself for whatever reason; Franklin and Hampshire form a community of interest, much more so than Hampshire and Hampden.

That may be true on the ground, but I still expect that politics will win out. I expect that Olver's district will be split now to keep the incumbents intact. MA-10 will be renumbered MA-1, and Hampden and Hampshire will be the core of MA-2.