Demographic change in Virginia, Ohio, Florida

[Jacobtm]

When it comes down to it, Florida, Ohio and Virginia will probably decide the election.

If Obama can hold on to any one of them, it becomes very unlikely he will be unseated. If he loses all 3, plus IN and NC, he still has a 272-266 EV win, but then losing any other state would sink him.

In 2008:

Popular Vote: +7.8 Obama
Florida: +2.8 Obama
Ohio +4.6 Obama
Virginia +6.3% Obama

Lots of Obama's win in Virginia was attributed to demographic change, liberals in the D.C. suburbs. But Obama actually won Virginia outside of the D.C. suburbs, and the same demograhpic change that helped him there is continuing.

Ohio has long had the highest rate of people leaving of any state. Has that continued? Has that made it more or less Obama friendly?

Florida obviously is a huge hodge-podge, I don't know what's going on there demographically. I know lots of Latin American immigrants have left the country since November, 2008, but they were almost all not voters.

Anyone who can shed light on demographic change in these 3 key states and what it means for Obama/the Republicans would be great.

[Politico]

Demographics mean little when the economy has been suffering for far too long from an unemployment rate of 9-10%, which is over double an approximate unemployment rate that is considered "good" (i.e., 4-5% nationally). And let's not forget that the unemployment rate does not capture discouraged workers or part-time workers who desire full-time work (we may be beyond 20% of the working population with such a figure, which is CRAP LOAD of unhappy people who are not exactly going to be eager to re-elect the incumbent president given their current situation in life).

Demographics might have meant a lot in the 2000s, but this is the 2010s. Demographics are not going to matter that much until the economy is back to normal, especially with regards to an incumbent president running for re-election.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

My guess is increased black turnout, coupled with the fact that swing voter whites in Virginia are mostly willing to vote for a black, explains more of the jump between 2004 and 2008 than migration from other states.

[Phony Moderate]

Wow... the Tweens on this board are something else.

Ohio and Florida have always been swing states. Florida went from a razor thin margin in 2000 to a fairly substantial win for Bush in 2004. Ohio has always bounced around between the GOP and Rats at the statewide level.

Virginia was a combination of racist blacks and YUFZZZZZZ who turned out in record numbers. People are delusional if they think NOVA suddenly controls the whole state. If that was true, Bob McDonnell wouldn't be governor today.

Obama actually won Virginia because of a huge Black turnout in Tidewater and a depressed GOP turnout statewide due to the economic maelstrom and the public growing tired of Iraq. Both of those ticks are now against Obama.

While Virginia will be closer than in times past because racist blacks will want to vote for Obama solely because of the color of his skin, that effect will be muted by a massive GOP turnout. Obama can win the same or similar margins in NOVA but still end up losing because Tidewater swings back to the GOP.

I love how Tweens like to make insane assumptions like ALL of the newcomers to Virginia are Yankee Libs who will vote uniformly a certain way.

Did it ever occur to you that many of the Yankee newcomers are the more conservative folks who are fleeing the liberal cesspools? Did it ever occur to you that people don't vote the same election after election and actually change their minds based on the candidates and conditions?

This forum is full of wide eyed tweens who think they have all the answers. It's pretty hilarious to watch. I wonder how many will commit suicide when their messiah loses?

[Politico]

Wow... the Tweens on this board are something else.

Ohio and Florida have always been swing states. Florida went from a razor thin margin in 2000 to a fairly substantial win for Bush in 2004. Ohio has always bounced around between the GOP and Rats at the statewide level.

Virginia was a combination of racist blacks and YUFZZZZZZ who turned out in record numbers. People are delusional if they think NOVA suddenly controls the whole state. If that was true, Bob McDonnell wouldn't be governor today.

Obama actually won Virginia because of a huge Black turnout in Tidewater and a depressed GOP turnout statewide due to the economic maelstrom and the public growing tired of Iraq. Both of those ticks are now against Obama.

While Virginia will be closer than in times past because racist blacks will want to vote for Obama solely because of the color of his skin, that effect will be muted by a massive GOP turnout. Obama can win the same or similar margins in NOVA but still end up losing because Tidewater swings back to the GOP.

I love how Tweens like to make insane assumptions like ALL of the newcomers to Virginia are Yankee Libs who will vote uniformly a certain way.

Did it ever occur to you that many of the Yankee newcomers are the more conservative folks who are fleeing the liberal cesspools? Did it ever occur to you that people don't vote the same election after election and actually change their minds based on the candidates and conditions?

This forum is full of wide eyed tweens who think they have all the answers. It's pretty hilarious to watch. I wonder how many will commit suicide when their messiah loses?

One: Correlation does not imply causation.

Two: Ever hear of Social Security and moving to another state after retirement? With the exception of Florida, along with perhaps Texas and southern Nevada, almost nobody moves to any of the states in the left column after they retire.

[Phony Moderate]

Hey Captain red herring... you do realize that your little cut and paste is completely irrelevant, right?

No. American 'Conservatism' is a form of Socialism.

[LastVoter]

new troll is in full force.

[Phony Moderate]

Uh huh.

I'm glad you agree.

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Ah, yes. Who am I to comment on American politics? After all, I am ruled by Chairman Cameron and his comrades.

One: Correlation does not imply causation.

No, it doesn't. But if you believe that the Democratic Party pursues and advocates socialist policies, then you must surely hold the same viewpoint on the Republican Party. Otherwise, you're a tad inconsistent. 

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The 2010 U.S. Census figures don't exactly justify your claim.

[NVGonzalez]

jmfcst is that you? If so nice to see your troll power recharged.

[Politico]

Uh huh.

I'm glad you agree.

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Ah, yes. Who am I to comment on American politics? After all, I am ruled by Chairman Cameron and his comrades.

One: Correlation does not imply causation.

No, it doesn't. But if you believe that the Democratic Party pursues and advocates socialist policies, then you must surely hold the same viewpoint on the Republican Party. Otherwise, you're a tad inconsistent.  

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The 2010 U.S. Census figures don't exactly justify your claim.

Are you suggesting that the census has evidence that plenty of folks are retiring to the states in the left column, or that not many folks are retiring to many of the states in the right column? If so, I need your source on that because I highly doubt either of these claims holds weight, and I am willing to make a significant wager on the matter.

[Jacobtm]

My guess is increased black turnout, coupled with the fact that swing voter whites in Virginia are mostly willing to vote for a black, explains more of the jump between 2004 and 2008 than migration from other states.

That is not a guess supported by evidence.

The age-group that had the biggest increase in turnout in Virginia was voters 45-65. They were more Republican than the state as a whole. The +65 voters dropped dramatically in turnout, more than any other age group. They are the strongest Republican voters,

The biggest swing towards Obama was not among the 18-29 age group, but among those aged 30-45. Their turnout though, was static.

Both black and white turnout decreased. Latino, Asian, and ''Other'' turnout increased.

Blacks in VA actually went 8% for McCain, twice his national number of 4%. Compared to 2004, Whites trended towards Obama harder than Blacks did. Whites went +8 for Obama compared to Kerry, Blacks went +4.

It's closer to the truth to say that old people lost it for McCain than that young ones won it for Obama.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The key thing wrt Virginia is not just the expansion of the Washington metropolitan area, but the parallel movement of the Democratic Party away from the American Liberalism as it was in the Cold War era (when it included certain - albeit often very random - pseudo social democratic influences) to something quite different. The Democratic Party is no longer any kind of threat (even if it was never more than a laughably pallid, insipid and ultimately largely fictional one) these days, while the Republican Party has been hoisted on its own petard and has become a conduit for Political Fundamentalism. And these suburban Tories, well, some of them find Political Fundamentalism every bit as scary as the Pale Pinks of the Democratic Party as it was.

Or something like that.

[All Along The Watchtower]

The key thing wrt Virginia is not just the expansion of the Washington metropolitan area, but the parallel movement of the Democratic Party away from the American Liberalism as it was in the Cold War era (when it included certain - albeit often very random - pseudo social democratic influences) to something quite different. The Democratic Party is no longer any kind of threat (even if it was never more than a laughably pallid, insipid and ultimately largely fictional one) these days, while the Republican Party has been hoisted on its own petard and has become a conduit for Political Fundamentalism. And these suburban Tories, well, some of them find Political Fundamentalism every bit as scary as the Pale Pinks of the Democratic Party as it was.

Or something like that.

Indeed. Rich suburbanites like their Democrats and Republicans to be "well-educated" and "sensible", dare I say moderate.

Just as long as their taxes remain low and their property values remain high. Everything else is ideological foolishness.

[5280]

If I was retiring, I sure as hell wouldn't stay in Colorado. Everything is getting expensive, housing, food, taxes.  People drive like they're just learning like a 15 year old during this time of the year. Condition of roads suck, too much traffic, not enough mom and pop small business.  Lastly, it's hard to get a good breath of fresh air.

[memphis]

Indeed. Rich suburbanites like their Democrats and Republicans to be "well-educated" and "sensible", dare I say moderate.

Suburban congressmen are frequenly anything but moderate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsha_Blackburn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Schakowsky

[All Along The Watchtower]

Indeed. Rich suburbanites like their Democrats and Republicans to be "well-educated" and "sensible", dare I say moderate.

Suburban congressmen are frequenly anything but moderate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsha_Blackburn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Schakowsky

Touche.

I wonder what the difference in income or education is between those two districts.

[The Mikado]

Anyone want to set the over-under on how long this guy lasts?

[pbrower2a]

Wow... the Tweens on this board are something else.

Ohio and Florida have always been swing states. Florida went from a razor thin margin in 2000 to a fairly substantial win for Bush in 2004. Ohio has always bounced around between the GOP and Rats at the statewide level.

So far, OK.

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No, Virginia is rare among the states in having elected a black governor; by most accounts he was effective and honest. That surely helped Barack Obama, an intelligent black man who gets his point across very well in a bad year for Republicans nationwide. If there is any demographic change worth looking at in Virginia, it is the growth and aging of suburbia. Suburbia used to be understood as a safe haven for Republicans because its denizens would vote with its bosses. Barack Obama did a fine job in appealing to people who recognize that aging or rapidly-expanding suburbia has urban problems, and the 'tax cuts' that Republicans offer as panaceas are no longer enough.

By the way -- Bob McDonnell is one of the few Republicans to have learned anything from President Obama. I can think of many Republican Governors who fall far short of him.    

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Don't be so sure. The economic maelstrom seems to be abating, and the President has announced a pullout from Iraq (at the request of Iraq. Such can only help him.

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"Racist" blacks like those middle-class blacks of northeastern Virginia? Those are the sorts who do what really disgusts you -- they date and marry white people and have children by them. That's not racism on anyone's part. But face it -- an intelligent, honest, erudite, and rational black man as President is far less troublesome than a dishonest, intellect-bashing, lunatic-fringe mediocrity who could be the alternative to Barack Obama in 2012.

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.

Some parts of Virginia swung decisively away from the Democrats in 2008 -- most notably southwestern Virginia, settled largely by colonial-era Scots-Irish stock that distrusts anything exotic. That part of Virginia is in its culture and heritage much like the neighboring West Virginia and eastern Kentucky. It used to vote decidedly Democratic before the Hard Right appealed to its fundamentalism, anti-intellectualism, and its gun culture. But take a look at one aspect of Virginia's geography: Virginia juts into the northeastern US. Northernmost Virginia is about 300 miles from Midtown Manhattan. If Virginia has good opportunities, it is also fairly close.

Richmond and San Francisco are at roughly the same latitude -- 37.5N.  Just because its state leaders chose to go with the Confederacy back in 1861 after much soul-searching, and even then it did so with far more debate doesn't mean that it is still a Southern state.  

Did I tell you that I have a higher regard for Virginia than I have for any state that used to be part of the Confederacy? Maybe that it downplays its Confederate heritage and the disaster that the Civil War was for Virginia.      

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"Liberal" cesspool? Greater New York City has the lowest violent crime rate of any of the great cities. San Jose is slightly lower in violent crime than New York. Those are very liberal places. Boston is as civilized a city as anything in America. Given a choice between Harlem and South Dallas -- I'll take Harlem any day.

That "liberal cesspool" has some of the most renowned of American colleges and universities -- Harvard, Yale, MIT, Columbia, Johns Hopkins, Case Western Reserve, Notre Dame, the University of Chicago, Stanford, and such state universities as those of Massachusetts, New York (SUNY), Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, and California.  Before you mention those of Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, North Carolina, or Texas -- those are in rather liberal parts of those states.

America could use more of the culture of liberalism -- not less. We liberals are more learned, more rational,  more humane, less violent, more imaginative, and more tolerant. We are more likely to fit the request of Dr. Martin Luther King that we see people for the content of their character than for the color of their skin. That doesn't mean that we are blind to human character.

I'm not going to tell you where to put your fantasy of living like some planter on a Tara-like plantation.

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Nobody has "all the answers", but some people seem to get everything wrong. Do you still think that Dubya was wonderful? I see no theological significance in the current President. He is very human.

[pbrower2a]

Indeed. Rich suburbanites like their Democrats and Republicans to be "well-educated" and "sensible", dare I say moderate.

Suburban congressmen are frequenly anything but moderate.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marsha_Blackburn
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Schakowsky

Touche.

I wonder what the difference in income or education is between those two districts.

Cultural differences are obviously huge.  I've been on Interstate 40 in western Tennessee and Interstate 94 from the north side of Chicago to the Wisconsin state line, and I can assure you that those areas are vastly different.



Of course a district that extends from the suburbs of Nashville to the suburbs of Memphis  is heavily rural.