IA PrimR: Rasmussen: Cain remains ahead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Iowa President by Rasmussen on 2011-10-19

Summary:

Cain:	28%
Romney:	21%
Paul:	10%
Gingrich:	9%
Bachmann:	8%
Perry:	7%
Other:	9%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[SufferedMore ThanJesus]

Fantastic numbers for Romney, and he hasn't even campaigned in Iowa yet.

[Meeker]

Well the Cain Train hasn't derailed here yet.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Fantastic numbers for Romney, and he hasn't even campaigned in Iowa yet.

Neither has Cain.

[Eraserhead]

Well the Cain Train hasn't derailed here yet.

It hasn't derailed anywhere yet. BELIEVE.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Well the Cain Train hasn't derailed here yet.

It hasn't derailed anywhere yet. BELIEVE.

the problem is these stumbles do NOT appear to be gaffes along the lines "Select * from random_thoughts"(e.g. Joe Biden)...rather Cain just doesn't appear to know anything about the social of geopolitical issues of the last 40 years.  It's as if he simply performed his job as CEO and never watched or read the news (there's nothing wrong with that...unless of course you're running for political office).

if fact, his performance in interviews is much worse than Palin in 2008...if that is possible

[Meeker]

Well the Cain Train hasn't derailed here yet.

It hasn't derailed anywhere yet. BELIEVE.

the problem is these stumbles do NOT appear to be gaffes along the lines "Select * from random_thoughts"(e.g. Joe Biden)...rather Cain just doesn't appear to know anything about the social of geopolitical issues of the last 40 years.  It's as if he simply performed his job as CEO and never watched or read the news (there's nothing wrong with that...unless of course you're running for political office).

if fact, his performance in interviews is much worse than Palin in 2008...if that is possible

Well... yeah. That's why we love him so much. I'm surprised it took you until now to notice it.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Presumably these polls were conducted before Cain stated he would be willing to release Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and every other terrorist in Guantanamo in exchange for one American soldier, and that he was both pro-choice and pro-life.

[Meeker]

Presumably these polls were conducted before Cain stated he would be willing to release Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and every other terrorist in Guantanamo in exchange for one American soldier, and that he was both pro-choice and pro-life.

Nope, not this one (to the first part at least). It was conducted yesterday.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Presumably these polls were conducted before Cain stated he would be willing to release Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and every other terrorist in Guantanamo in exchange for one American soldier, and that he was both pro-choice and pro-life.

Nope, not this one (to the first part at least). It was conducted yesterday.

For the first couple of days after Perry's parade of gaffes and failure, the polls conducted after still showed Perry as a frontrunner.

The collapse of a candidate generally takes a little while regardless of present polling numbers. Going by Perry's fall, it should be a week or two before Cain's decline becomes apparent.

[Meeker]

Presumably these polls were conducted before Cain stated he would be willing to release Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and every other terrorist in Guantanamo in exchange for one American soldier, and that he was both pro-choice and pro-life.

Nope, not this one (to the first part at least). It was conducted yesterday.

For the first couple of days after Perry's parade of gaffes and failure, the polls conducted after still showed Perry as a frontrunner.

The collapse of a candidate generally takes a little while regardless of present polling numbers. Going by Perry's fall, it should be a week or two before Cain's decline becomes apparent.

Perry's fall was caused by Cain's rise, not the other way around.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Presumably these polls were conducted before Cain stated he would be willing to release Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and every other terrorist in Guantanamo in exchange for one American soldier, and that he was both pro-choice and pro-life.

Nope, not this one (to the first part at least). It was conducted yesterday.

For the first couple of days after Perry's parade of gaffes and failure, the polls conducted after still showed Perry as a frontrunner.

The collapse of a candidate generally takes a little while regardless of present polling numbers. Going by Perry's fall, it should be a week or two before Cain's decline becomes apparent.

Perry's fall was caused by Cain's rise, not the other way around.

You kidding? Immediately after the debate, the best thing I heard about Cain was "Cain did well". The talk was of Perry doing awfully and how there was no longer opposition to Romney. Perry collapsed, then Cain took advantage of it and took his spot. There's a reason Perry's favourability ratings dropped from +20% to -20%

[Meeker]

Presumably these polls were conducted before Cain stated he would be willing to release Khalid Sheikh Muhammad and every other terrorist in Guantanamo in exchange for one American soldier, and that he was both pro-choice and pro-life.

Nope, not this one (to the first part at least). It was conducted yesterday.

For the first couple of days after Perry's parade of gaffes and failure, the polls conducted after still showed Perry as a frontrunner.

The collapse of a candidate generally takes a little while regardless of present polling numbers. Going by Perry's fall, it should be a week or two before Cain's decline becomes apparent.

Perry's fall was caused by Cain's rise, not the other way around.

You kidding? Immediately after the debate, the best thing I heard about Cain was "Cain did well". The talk was of Perry doing awfully and how there was no longer opposition to Romney. Perry collapsed, then Cain took advantage of it and took his spot. There's a reason Perry's favourability ratings dropped from +20% to -20%

Perry had been been doing poorly in debates for several weeks before he started to fall - a fall which coincided exactly with Cain's performance at the Florida debate.

Cain could fall in the coming week or so, but he's not going to go away just because of his poor performance the other night. Someone else has to do well enough to capture his supporters.

[Meeker]

Also as of last week PPP has Perry's favorabilities at +4% and NBC has them at +20% , so I'm not sure where you're getting -20% from.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Also as of last week PPP has Perry's favorabilities at +4% and NBC has them at +20% , so I'm not sure where you're getting -20% from.

>as of last week

>Immediately after the debate

A prime example:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_0929925.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, Perry didn't fall because suddenly Cain did well; the talk of the time was not "Wow, Cain did such an amazing job! He's on his way to becoming frontrunner". It wasn't that here in the forum (IIRC he wasn't even voted to have performed best in the debate), it wasn't that in the media coverage. It was "Wow, Perry was awful. He really sucked. So much for him, eh?"

In the prior debates, while Perry performed very poorly, he wasn't as widely panned as he was in the Florida one. They always hid it behind "Well, he didn't do great, but" or "He can still recover", etc. Cain just happened to steal his momentum by benefit of effectively dumping everything that was left of his campaign resources into winning the Florida straw poll (not to mention that his radio show was quite popular there).

[Meeker]

Also as of last week PPP has Perry's favorabilities at +4% and NBC has them at +20% , so I'm not sure where you're getting -20% from.

>as of last week

>Immediately after the debate

A prime example:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_0929925.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, Perry didn't fall because suddenly Cain did well; the talk of the time was not "Wow, Cain did such an amazing job! He's on his way to becoming frontrunner". It wasn't that here in the forum (IIRC he wasn't even voted to have performed best in the debate), it wasn't that in the media coverage. It was "Wow, Perry was awful. He really sucked. So much for him, eh?"

In the prior debates, while Perry performed very poorly, he wasn't as widely panned as he was in the Florida one. They always hid it behind "Well, he didn't do great, but" or "He can still recover", etc. Cain just happened to steal his momentum by benefit of effectively dumping everything that was left of his campaign resources into winning the Florida straw poll (not to mention that his radio show was quite popular there).

Uhh... that's a poll of the general electorate. Not the Republican primary electorate. You will note that all the Republicans have horrible favorability ratings.

If you look at the crosstabs, Perry's favorability is +23% amongst Republicans.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Also as of last week PPP has Perry's favorabilities at +4% and NBC has them at +20% , so I'm not sure where you're getting -20% from.

>as of last week

>Immediately after the debate

A prime example:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_FL_0929925.pdf

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Again, Perry didn't fall because suddenly Cain did well; the talk of the time was not "Wow, Cain did such an amazing job! He's on his way to becoming frontrunner". It wasn't that here in the forum (IIRC he wasn't even voted to have performed best in the debate), it wasn't that in the media coverage. It was "Wow, Perry was awful. He really sucked. So much for him, eh?"

In the prior debates, while Perry performed very poorly, he wasn't as widely panned as he was in the Florida one. They always hid it behind "Well, he didn't do great, but" or "He can still recover", etc. Cain just happened to steal his momentum by benefit of effectively dumping everything that was left of his campaign resources into winning the Florida straw poll (not to mention that his radio show was quite popular there).

Uhh... that's a poll of the general electorate. Not the Republican primary electorate. You will note that all the Republicans have horrible favorability ratings.

If you look at the crosstabs, Perry's favorability is +23% amongst Republicans.

Romney's favourability was -6%, Paul's was -20%, Perry's was -29%. Among independents (who constitute a sizable portion of the Republican primary electorate), Romney's favourability was -8%, Paul's was -2%, Perry's was a rather colossal -39%

I was exaggerating regardless, but my point still stands. Perry's favourability was previously sky high and then dropped considerably.