Idiot Bossi at it again, calling for secession referendum.

[ingemann]

no region should be forced to remain a part of a particular country if a majority of its people wants to secede.

Ok, see, that's the problem. Despite the complaints from one end of the country about the other end, secession isn't seriously supported in large enough numbers. From everything I have seen, it has never reached a majority.

Indeed. Secession is a wedge issue invoked by Bossi and his crazy clique each time the grassroots are pissed off because they've been in government for 3 years and achieved nothing. But no one (and certainly not Bossi) considers it an even remotely serious option.

Except increased autonomy for the regions. But honestly if there was a vote for autonomy South Tyrol would likely leave Italy and Aosta Valley would also have a high chance of leaving Italy.

Do you seriously think Aosta Valley and South Tyrol would leave Italy and form their own little countries ? Come on, feeling of particular identity is very strong there, but not to this point.

I doubt Aosta would leave, but South Tyrol would almost certainly leave and join Austria (who would welcome them).

[Keystone Phil]

Since we were talking about popular support for secession earlier, here are some numbers:

A poll conducted by GPG (not sure who they are) from February 2010 shows that 45% of Northern Italians support independence. Another polling firm (SWG - not sure who they are either) puts the number at 61% in 2010. That's quite a big gap between two polls but I'm still surprised at how high the support is in the poll that shows less support for secession.

There is, however, a more recent poll. This, too, was conducted by SWG. The question asks if the respondent supports the independence of their region and then either remaining independent or joining a union with neighboring regions. Nationwide, 73% of Italians opposed the idea. A regional breakdown of the results doesn't reveal anything surprising: the strongest support for secession is in Veneto/South Tyrol/Friuli-Venezia Giulia, with 55% of respondents supporting secession. Support doesn't crack 50% anywhere else. Lombardy is at 46% and Liguria and Piedmont are at 37%. Only 31% of respondents in Emilia-Romagna support it. I won't include the results from Tuscany when calculating Northern support for secession since there is debate as to whether or not the region would be part of "Padania" (yet another reason why this movement is ridiculous).

Overall, Northern support for secession in this poll is at 42%. Still higher than I expected but, again, it's up for debate. If Tuscany is included, the overall support drops to 38%.

http://www.scenaripolitici.com/2011/05/sondaggi-gpg-quesiti2-maggio-2011.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since we were talking about popular support for secession earlier, here are some numbers:

A poll conducted by GPG (not sure who they are) from February 2010 shows that 45% of Northern Italians support independence. Another polling firm (SWG - not sure who they are either) puts the number at 61% in 2010. That's quite a big gap between two polls but I'm still surprised at how high the support is in the poll that shows less support for secession.

There is, however, a more recent poll. This, too, was conducted by SWG. The question asks if the respondent supports the independence of their region and then either remaining independent or joining a union with neighboring regions. Nationwide, 73% of Italians opposed the idea. A regional breakdown of the results doesn't reveal anything surprising: the strongest support for secession is in Veneto/South Tyrol/Friuli-Venezia Giulia, with 55% of respondents supporting secession. Support doesn't crack 50% anywhere else. Lombardy is at 46% and Liguria and Piedmont are at 37%. Only 31% of respondents in Emilia-Romagna support it. I won't include the results from Tuscany when calculating Northern support for secession since there is debate as to whether or not the region would be part of "Padania" (yet another reason why this movement is ridiculous).

Overall, Northern support for secession in this poll is at 42%. Still higher than I expected but, again, it's up for debate. If Tuscany is included, the overall support drops to 38%.

http://www.scenaripolitici.com/2011/05/sondaggi-gpg-quesiti2-maggio-2011.html

I think a big deal of those people wouldn't actually vote yes if a referendum were organized. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but I think people would tend to exagerate their positions in this kind of polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given how the League has dominated political discourse in that area for twenty years, it's not so surprising.

[Insula Dei]

But still very harsh numbers.

I'm sorry Phil, but that sort of support for independence in an area that size must be pretty unique in Europe. In 'separatist Flanders' I've never seen a poll that put support for independence over 15% or so and I don't think the actual number is over 25%.

These are numbers without the issue being at the centre of public interest,  I assume? If there were to be a referendum, there'd be no way of telling how such support levels would evolve. It's very well possible that the Lega Nord's campaign would gather momentum enough to push the numbers embarrassingly high, even if an outright victory troughout the whole of 'Padania' (lol) seems unlikely.

[Keystone Phil]

The problem with the movement is organization. Lega Nord wouldn't be able to match the opposition from PD/the Left and PdL (as well as the Terzo Polo: UdC, FLI and whatever the hell Rutelli's outfit is these days) if it ever came to a vote.

It won't ever come to a vote because of those parties, too. If PdL caved and allowed them to hold a referendum and it passed, could you imagine the outcry from the South? Hell, forget the South for a minute: did we forget that one of PdL's strongest (if not the strongest) bases is in Lombardy? They'd never let it go. It goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: the Left would obviously never allow a vote because they wouldn't cave to Lega Nord, don't support secession in general and they could never afford to lose Emilia-Romagna. 

[Iannis]

no region should be forced to remain a part of a particular country if a majority of its people wants to secede.

Ok, see, that's the problem. Despite the complaints from one end of the country about the other end, secession isn't seriously supported in large enough numbers. From everything I have seen, it has never reached a majority.

Indeed. Secession is a wedge issue invoked by Bossi and his crazy clique each time the grassroots are pissed off because they've been in government for 3 years and achieved nothing. But no one (and certainly not Bossi) considers it an even remotely serious option.

Except increased autonomy for the regions. But honestly if there was a vote for autonomy South Tyrol would likely leave Italy and Aosta Valley would also have a high chance of leaving Italy.

Do you seriously think Aosta Valley and South Tyrol would leave Italy and form their own little countries ? Come on, feeling of particular identity is very strong there, but not to this point.

South Tyrol would probably vote yes, and I would agree. they should belong to Austria, and they should have never ceased to Italy after WWI, as well as coastal Istria should have remaned italian after WWII. BTW Vallee d'Aoste probably would vote NO, they are not really french, but they speak sort of local variety of alpine franco-provencal dialect, and moreover in France they would never obtain the broad autonomy and the flow of money they have in Italy being the richest area in the country.

[Iannis]

The problem with the movement is organization. Lega Nord wouldn't be able to match the opposition from PD/the Left and PdL (as well as the Terzo Polo: UdC, FLI and whatever the hell Rutelli's outfit is these days) if it ever came to a vote.

It won't ever come to a vote because of those parties, too. If PdL caved and allowed them to hold a referendum and it passed, could you imagine the outcry from the South? Hell, forget the South for a minute: did we forget that one of PdL's strongest (if not the strongest) bases is in Lombardy? They'd never let it go. It goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: the Left would obviously never allow a vote because they wouldn't cave to Lega Nord, don't support secession in general and they could never afford to lose Emilia-Romagna. 

Well I'm PDL (and UDC as second choice) voter and I live in Lmbardy, my mum was from the south, I know well the South, and thoretically I would be in favour of  a division, but if we were in 1946. Now South and North are too interconnected, economically, personally, sentimentally I would say, so I would vote a pragmatic NO. But I don't like to see that the idea itself of secession should be defined as "immoral" or "absurd", and it should be permitted in the Constitution

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Tyrol would probably vote yes, and I would agree. they should belong to Austria, and they should have never ceased to Italy after WWI, as well as coastal Istria should have remaned italian after WWII. BTW Vallee d'Aoste probably would vote NO, they are not really french, but they speak sort of local variety of alpine franco-provencal dialect, and moreover in France they would never obtain the broad autonomy and the flow of money they have in Italy being the richest area in the country.

I would think that if Val d'Outa were to leave Italy, it would be to join Switzerland, not France.

[Iannis]

South Tyrol would probably vote yes, and I would agree. they should belong to Austria, and they should have never ceased to Italy after WWI, as well as coastal Istria should have remaned italian after WWII. BTW Vallee d'Aoste probably would vote NO, they are not really french, but they speak sort of local variety of alpine franco-provencal dialect, and moreover in France they would never obtain the broad autonomy and the flow of money they have in Italy being the richest area in the country.

I would think that if Val d'Outa were to leave Italy, it would be to join Switzerland, not France.

No, there are no real historical, cultural links with Switzerland. The issue has always been about France, for example after WWII, when De Gaulle was said to be willing Val d'Aoste.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

South Tyrol would probably vote yes, and I would agree. they should belong to Austria, and they should have never ceased to Italy after WWI, as well as coastal Istria should have remaned italian after WWII. BTW Vallee d'Aoste probably would vote NO, they are not really french, but they speak sort of local variety of alpine franco-provencal dialect, and moreover in France they would never obtain the broad autonomy and the flow of money they have in Italy being the richest area in the country.

I would think that if Val d'Outa were to leave Italy, it would be to join Switzerland, not France.

No, there are no real historical, cultural links with Switzerland. The issue has always been about France, for example after WWII, when De Gaulle was said to be willing Val d'Aoste.

The ethnic mix of Val d'Outa would have more in common with Switzerland than France, which is why I think that Switzerland would be the better option.  Not that I think it will leave Italy unless a large chunk of Padania decides to go.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Napolitano spoke out against secession in a very clear and straightforward way. We really need more politician like him, but sadly those are an endangered species.

[Keystone Phil]

Napolitano spoke out against secession in a very clear and straightforward way. We really need more politician like him, but sadly those are an endangered species.

I agree that more should speak out against the idiocy but I think the fact that you only ever hear about secession (with the exception of Napolitano in this instance) from the nutcases shows that this isn't serious. If it was ever serious, you'd hear a lot more from the southern members of PdL, Terzo Polo, all of PD, etc.

[Iannis]

Napolitano spoke out against secession in a very clear and straightforward way. We really need more politician like him, but sadly those are an endangered species.

Napolitano is an old authoritarian guy. Nobody can in any country threat a party as he did (remembering the arrest of a sicilian autonomist) or even say that it's "impossible2 to call for a secession. It must be possible, as far as democracy and human rights are respected. The form and the borders of a country are not a supreme value.