200 EV in the toss-up category next year ?

[Tender Branson]

Is this the map that we'll start with after the GOP primaries are over and Romney is the nominee ?

196 EV - Safe Obama
142 EV - Safe Romney
200 EV - Toss-up

[NHI]

I'd put Missouri, Georgia, Colorado as strong republican. Arizona is a lean with Republican as a Nevada.
The rest I would say are pretty much on the map.

[Gustaf]

I'd put MO, GA, AZ and IN in the Republican column as well.

[cavalcade]

I suppose that those are toss-ups in the sense that they could go for either Obama or Romney.

However, that map incorporates a wide range of possible economic scenarios.  Georgia, Missouri, and Arizona (probably Indiana as well, but we have no polling) only go Democrat if the economy grows like crazy over the next 12 months.  Wisconsin and Colorado only go Republican if there is a severe recession.

So, there is no way that those will be the toss-ups in summer 2012, let alone on Election Day.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Florida seems to be lean Republican if Romney is nominated. Arizona doesn't seem like its a swing state either. The rest, who knows.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Michigan - No
Georgia - No
Pennsylvania - No
Wisconsin - No
Missouri - No


I'm surprised that Montana isn't listed as a swing state given how that status was also applied to Georgia and Michigan. 

[Tender Branson]

Michigan - No
Georgia - No
Pennsylvania - No
Wisconsin - No
Missouri - No


I'm surprised that Montana isn't listed as a swing state given how that status was also applied to Georgia and Michigan. 

Georgia and Michigan are very close with Romney as the nominee, says PPP.

Montana is not. Romney leads by about 10 there.

[President von Cat]

I'd put Missouri, Georgia, Colorado as strong republican. Arizona is a lean with Republican as a Nevada.
The rest I would say are pretty much on the map.

As of 2006, Colorado is a "lean Democrat" swing state. There's nothing about it that says "strong Republican" to me - especially looking at its 2010 midterm results. "Strong Republican" means something like Texas or Oklahoma - a state that they are not only guaranteed to win, but one they will win by huge margins. Missouri is "lean Republican", whereas George and Arizona are probably "safe Republican".

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are also "lean Democrat", with the latter two bordering on "safe Democrat".

The true swing states of 2012 are North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado. Its anyone's guess how those will break. I can envision a scenario where Obama wins all of them, I can envision a scenario where Obama loses NC and FL. But its hard to see a scenario where Obama loses all of them, which shows you how tough this is going to be for the Republicans, despite the wind at their backs.

[Devils30]

I'd start it here

Dems 242, GOP 191, Tossup 105

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

I'd put Missouri, Georgia, Colorado as strong republican. Arizona is a lean with Republican as a Nevada.
The rest I would say are pretty much on the map.

As of 2006, Colorado is a "lean Democrat" swing state. There's nothing about it that says "strong Republican" to me - especially looking at its 2010 midterm results. "Strong Republican" means something like Texas or Oklahoma - a state that they are not only guaranteed to win, but one they will win by huge margins. Missouri is "lean Republican", whereas George and Arizona are probably "safe Republican".

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are also "lean Democrat", with the latter two bordering on "safe Democrat".

The true swing states of 2012 are North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire and Colorado. Its anyone's guess how those will break. I can envision a scenario where Obama wins all of them, I can envision a scenario where Obama loses NC and FL. But its hard to see a scenario where Obama loses all of them, which shows you how tough this is going to be for the Republicans, despite the wind at their backs.

Completely agreed

Colorado and Nevada were the few positives for the Democrats in 2010.

A previously unelected incumbent, Michael Bennett, held off a tea party candidate when the tea party was popular and before they were exposed as nothing more than a front for the conservatives.  Anyone GOP strategist who ignores that does it at their own parties peril

[Heimdal]

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are also "lean Democrat", with the latter two bordering on "safe Democrat".

I don't think Wisconsin is anywhere near "safe Democrat" anymore, not considering how the GOP cleaned the table there in 2010, and how close GWB came to winning it in 2004.

[Likely Voter]

I can see the OP map as the "battleground" states but not the tossups. There are lots of lean states in there.

[President von Cat]

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are also "lean Democrat", with the latter two bordering on "safe Democrat".

I don't think Wisconsin is anywhere near "safe Democrat" anymore, not considering how the GOP cleaned the table there in 2010, and how close GWB came to winning it in 2004.

Good points, but that is why I said "bordering". While Democrats are making inroads into the Rocky Mountain west and "New South", they are probably going to lose some ground in the midwest.. but not soon enough for 2012. Walker should have gradually consolidated power instead of doing what he did earlier this year. I think he alone should be enough to let Obama squeak by in the state.

[Heimdal]

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are also "lean Democrat", with the latter two bordering on "safe Democrat".

I don't think Wisconsin is anywhere near "safe Democrat" anymore, not considering how the GOP cleaned the table there in 2010, and how close GWB came to winning it in 2004.

Good points, but that is why I said "bordering". While Democrats are making inroads into the Rocky Mountain west and "New South", they are probably going to lose some ground in the midwest.. but not soon enough for 2012. Walker should have gradually consolidated power instead of doing what he did earlier this year. I think he alone should be enough to let Obama squeak by in the state.

Yes, Obama will most likely win Wisconsin in 2012. However, I don't think an popular or unpopular Republican Governor would make a difference.

[Devils30]

I think Walker will be recalled next year at some point.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are also "lean Democrat", with the latter two bordering on "safe Democrat".

I don't think Wisconsin is anywhere near "safe Democrat" anymore, not considering how the GOP cleaned the table there in 2010, and how close GWB came to winning it in 2004.

Given the backlash over Walkers overreach it would be surprising to see Wisconsin as anything but a Democratic state.  The GOP also won a lot in Michigan and Pennsylvania.  So what?  Local politics don't necessarily translate to national politics.  If that were true Pennsylvania would have voted for the Republican in the past five election cycles for President, but it has been Democratic through and through