Post probabilities of each state going for Obama

[Nichlemn]

Name any state and post the probability you think it has of going to Obama in 2012. To reduce hackishness, let's assume that Intrade's "Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012" contract to be accurate as of the time of your post (so even if you think he's really 99% to win or lose, post statewide numbers as if you believed Intrade). Add more decimal places the closer to 0% or 100% you get.

Obama is currently at 48.5% to be re-elected at the time of this post.

I'll post some of my own numbers later, but first I want to see what other people select, and whether they confirm my suspicions.

Starting you off:

- Hawaii
- Illinois
- New Jersey
- Minnesota
- Ohio
- Indiana
- North Dakota
- Utah

[Mr. Morden]

Obama is currently at 48.5% to be re-elected at the time of this post.

Yes, Obama's at 48.5% to be re-elected, though the Democratic Party is at 52% to win the presidential election....as Intrade gives a few % chance that the Democrats will win with Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or some other nominee.  Should this be the probability that a state goes for the Democratic nominee, or the probability that it goes for Obama specifically?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

- Hawaii:  99.5%
- Illinois:  95%
- New Jersey:  92%
- Minnesota:  88%
- Ohio:  51%
- Indiana:  19%
- North Dakota:  9%
- Utah: .5%

Something like that...

[Nichlemn]

Obama is currently at 48.5% to be re-elected at the time of this post.

Yes, Obama's at 48.5% to be re-elected, though the Democratic Party is at 52% to win the presidential election....as Intrade gives a few % chance that the Democrats will win with Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or some other nominee.  Should this be the probability that a state goes for the Democratic nominee, or the probability that it goes for Obama specifically?

Hmm, make it "the probability that the state goes for Obama given that he is the nominee".

[Antonio the Sixth]

- Hawaii : 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999%
- Illinois : 98%
- New Jersey : 80%
- Minnesota : 67%
- Ohio : 55%
- Indiana : 33%
- North Dakota : 10%
- Utah : 0.01%

[Nichlemn]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I find it interesting whether you think Hawaii is 99.5% to vote for Obama or 99.9999%.

[argentarius]

Hawaii: 95%
Illinois: 95%
New Jersey: 90%
Minnesota: 80%
Ohio: 35%
Indiana: 15%
North Dakota: 10%
Utah: 5%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Fixed.

[tmthforu94]

- Hawaii : 99%
- Illinois : 95%
- New Jersey : 80%
- Minnesota : 65%
- Ohio : 50%
- Indiana : 25%
- North Dakota : 15%
- Utah : 1%

[Thomas D]

- Hawaii : 99%
- Illinois : 98%
- New Jersey : 67%
- Minnesota : 70%
- Ohio : 49%
- Indiana : 12%
- North Dakota : 10%
- Utah : 0.5%

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

- Hawaii-99.5%
- Illinois-98%
- New Jersey-90%
- Minnesota-85%
- Ohio-70%
- Indiana-35%
- North Dakota-10%
- Utah-2% (Palin)

If he's in a position for re-election (and at high 40's with an unpopular GOP, should be headed for a good year).

[pbrower2a]

- Hawaii :  -- immeasurably close to 100%
- Illinois : -- repeat
- New Jersey : 90%
- Minnesota : 95% (it last voted for a Republican nominee for President in 1972 and was then the only state to do so).
- Ohio : 55%
- Indiana : 15-40% (lack of evidence to except for the behavior of other states)
- North Dakota : 5% (last voted for a Democratic nominee in 1964, mirror image of Minnesota)
- Utah : immeasurably close to zero.

May I add one?

- Texas: 20%   

You looked, so you approve!

[Devils30]

These states are mostly not in play unless close so here are the important ones:

NJ: 90%
NV:65%
CO:60%
FL:50%
VA: 55%
OH: 45%
IN:20%
NC: 45%
PA: 60%

[Stranger in a strange land]

Hawaii: 99%
Illinois: 99%
New Jersey: 94%
Minnesota: 95% (no, Bachmann couldn't win a statewide election here, and she only represents 1/8 of the state)
Ohio: 48%
Indiana: 31%
North Dakota: 15%
Utah: 1%


NJ: 94%
NV:76%
CO:72%
FL:52%
VA: 57%
OH: 48%
IN:31%
NC: 51%
PA: 67%

[Lucius Quintus Cincinatus Lamar]

- Hawaii - 99%
- Illinois - 95%
- New Jersey - 80%
- Minnesota - 55%
- Ohio - 45%
- Indiana - 30%
- North Dakota - 5%
- Utah - 1%

NV:47%
CO:55%
FL:42%
VA: 45%
NC: 30%
PA: 44%

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Hawaii: 97%
Illinois: 97%
New Jersey: 75%
Minnesota: 60%
Ohio: 45%
Indiana: 5%
North Dakota: 3%
Utah: <1%

[Del Tachi]

- Hawaii - 97%
- Illinois - 92%
- New Jersey - 82%
- Minnesota - 51%
- Ohio - 38%
- Indiana - 16%
- North Dakota - 4%
- Utah - <1%

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

- Hawaii - 98%
- Illinois - 80%
- New Jersey - 75%
- Minnesota - 58%
- Ohio - 54%
- Indiana - 25%
- North Dakota - 10%
- Utah - <1%

[Fuzzybigfoot]

- Hawaii - 98%
- Illinois - 80%
- New Jersey - 75%
- Minnesota - 58%
- Ohio - 54%
- Indiana - 25%
- North Dakota - 10%
- Utah - <1%

1/5 of a chance he will loose his home state? 

[Nichlemn]

The purpose of this exercise was to test some biases. A bias towards long-shots, a bias against long-shots, a bias in favour of binary trends (e.g. voted for/against Democratic since X) as opposed to absolute trends and inconsistency with the premise (giving Obama a high chance of winning states despite the premise of ~50% winning overall).

I think 97% is too low for Hawaii. However, 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% is definitely far too optimistic. Remember, there have only been 56 Presidential elections ever, so we can't infer much about the probability of very rare events from them (see Black swan theory). I think that the distribution of Presidential results likely have "fat tails", such that massive landslides are much more likely than a normal distribution would predict.

Regarding the next bias, this is the reason for including Minnesota. ZOMG it's voted Democratic longer than any other state! But look at the graph of the relative margins:



The past five elections, it has only been modestly Democratic. You could give it some credit for its Democratic past, but not that much.

For inconsistency, Ohio is the biggest tell. If Obama's winning chances are around 50%, then it's not going to differ vastly from that in Ohio. I see a 70% here.

[Politico]

I would say the odds are greater than 60% for Obama or the GOP in each state other than these (Unlike many, I see VA, IN, NC and NV being greater than 60% for the GOP, not Obama):

WA: 55%
OR: 55%
CO: 55%
NM: 55%
IA: 40%
WI: 40%
MI: 55%
OH: 40%
PA: 55%
FL: 40%
NH: 40%

Note: Percentage indicates my opinion of the likelihood of the state going to Obama under the assumption of today's economic conditions being the same as economic conditions on Election Day, which is obviously a huge but conservative assumption. I think Obama is toast if economic conditions worsen. Improved economic conditions would probably boost each of the above states by 5-15%, so FL would be the most pivotal state under this scenario.