TJ the Political Demographic Sleuth

[TJ in Oregon]

Cleveland Heights, the town I currently reside in, is a very liberal place. Overall it voted 84.3%-15.0% for President Obama. It also has a voting age population that is 39% black, 52.4% white and the balance mostly Asian. For a quick back-of-the envelope, we’ll assume that the voters were 39% black and that this 39.0% of the population voted 100% for Obama. This means everyone else voted approximately 75%-25% for Obama. These numbers make a lot of sense and there is somewhat of a post-1960’s aging hippie atmosphere to the area. Even though it is near Case Western, it is primarily not a college town. It is known locally as “a progressive enclave”. After looking through the voting results, I noticed something strange: There are three precincts clumped together that are only 60%, 60%, and 57% Obama (see graphic below) even though every adjacent precinct is at least 78% Obama, and many of them over 90%. They are in a neighborhood I’ve run through the portions of before (though never these precincts) and the rest of the neighborhood seems fairly typical for Cleveland Heights. I would like to pose the question, “Why are these three precincts so conservative?”



I happen to be an avid distance runner and I’ve been sort of bored on my last few runs, so I decided yesterday to run there and investigate. Before going, I thought of four hypotheses that I considered to be likely explanations:
(a) Race
(b) Italians
(c) Rich People
(d) Orthodox Jews

[TJ in Oregon]

(a) Race: Are these precincts whiter than everywhere else around? This seems like a logical first question to ask myself since race is a very dominant voting factor. But, one of my initial assumptions was that white people in Cleveland Heights vote 75-25 for Obama. Even if these precincts contained no blacks at all, I would need to ask, why are the whites there so conservative?

I can also check this without running there, and the three precincts are 44, 38, and 51% black by voting age population. Since this is actually a bit more heavily black than the average Cleveland Heights neighborhood, race is definitely not the key factor here. It also shows that the whites here must be even more conservative than I had initially thought. One precinct is 51% black and only gave President Obama 60% of its votes!

(b) Italians: This is the group that settled on the east side of Cleveland that I immediately consider when I think of conservative. Most of the Italians in Cleveland came over and settled in the Little Italy neighborhood, which has since become sort of gentrified, and spread all across the eastern suburbs. The other major groups who settled here, blacks, Jews, and liberal WASPs (we seem to have very few conservative WASPs in Cleveland), tend to be much more liberal. Italians are often practicing Catholics and from my experience not of a very liberal strand. There are other such groups on the west side, but Italians are definitely the most likely this side of the Cuyahoga. The neighborhood doesn’t have a Catholic church in it, so seems less likely, but still a definite possibility.

Some tip-offs for Italians would be Italian-looking people, Catholic symbols, and Italian flags.

(c) Rich People: This section of the neighborhood is hard to get to by accident and is tucked in between a shopping center and a golf course. I’ve never been there before so the houses could be really, really nice. I have some doubts as to whether rich people in Cleveland Heights would vote for Republicans because they don’t seem to anywhere else on the east side, but I guess it’s possible.

This would be incredibly east to figure out by running there.

(d) Orthodox Jews: There are a couple synagogues nearby and I occasionally see people dressed in ways that seem odd to me coming in and out of them. Most Jews around are very liberal, but perhaps there’s an Orthodox group in the neighborhood that isn’t. I don’t know very much about Jews but I do know there are some Orthodox sects that vote extremely conservatively.

[Torie]

Not as chic or as white as some other precincts in the town (the three precincts in question overall are about 40% black). On chic, I did an aerial and surveyed the town. There are some considerably richer looking sections. So the whites must by hyper conservative (or the blacks military officers, but strike that).  I don't see Italians being 70% McCain around here, or whatever. Strange. Is there some odd Jewish Orthodox sect here? It is just south of something. Is that Case Western, or some stadium, or what?

Fascinating project TJ.

[Torie]

And here you go TJ per a little google:

"Prices are more modest in Cleveland Heights, which has a huge Orthodox Jewish population between Taylor Rd and Maple Rd just south of Severance Town Center."  That thing I was wondering about I am going to surmise is Severance Town Center.

Without looking, I bet you that the three precincts are between Taylor Rd and Maple Rd.

See how the legal mind works? 

[TJ in Oregon]

...And you would be absolutely correct! I was planning on posting the answer tomorrow (to give people time to wonder) but since you've solved the puzzle already:

Answer: So, I went for my run. I passed through the sections of the neighborhood I’ve been through before. I made a couple turns and headed north toward the three unique precincts. The houses looked well-kept but not extravagant. Option (c) is out. I saw nothing to suggest the presence of Italians so I am doubting Option (b). After some time, I saw a man with a beard and a strange-looking hat get out of a car and go into his house. I saw a few children on the street playing in very, very old-fashioned looking clothing. They looked a lot like the Orthodox Jews I see going into and out of the nearby school and synagogues. So, after taking a trip and seeing for myself, I think the answer is (d) Orthodox Jews.

[TJ in Oregon]

Not as chic or as white as some other precincts in the town (the three precincts in question overall are about 40% black). On chic, I did an aerial and surveyed the town. There are some considerably richer looking sections. So the whites must by hyper conservative (or the blacks military officers, but strike that).  I don't see Italians being 70% McCain around here, or whatever. Strange. Is there some odd Jewish Orthodox sect here? It is just south of something. Is that Case Western, or some stadium, or what?

Fascinating project TJ.

It's just south of a shopping center "Severence Town Center" and just west of a golf course. Case Western is about four miles west.

[Torie]

I didn't mean to barge into your act TJ, btw.  Sorry. I thought you were asking for guesses. Precinct oddities are of course like chum in the water to a shark for me. So I got sort of hyperactive in my defense.

[TJ in Oregon]

Oh, no. I'm just happy someone else thought it was interesting. It is amazing how well one can use the internet to find the answers to these things just as well from 3,000 miles away and the exact same answer as the man who goes there in person.

I was also impressed by how exact of an answer you were able to give.

[jimrtex]

...And you would be absolutely correct! I was planning on posting the answer tomorrow (to give people time to wonder) but since you've solved the puzzle already:

Answer: So, I went for my run. I passed through the sections of the neighborhood I’ve been through before. I made a couple turns and headed north toward the three unique precincts. The houses looked well-kept but not extravagant. Option (c) is out. I saw nothing to suggest the presence of Italians so I am doubting Option (b). After some time, I saw a man with a beard and a strange-looking hat get out of a car and go into his house. I saw a few children on the street playing in very, very old-fashioned looking clothing. They looked a lot like the Orthodox Jews I see going into and out of the nearby school and synagogues. So, after taking a trip and seeing for myself, I think the answer is (d) Orthodox Jews.

http://ech.cwru.edu/ech-cgi/article.pl?id=JJ

This seems to indicate that the Jewish population has generally moved eastward first to Glenville, which is an area of Cleveland just south of Bratenahl and then to Cleveland Heights, and not limited to Orthodox Jews.  There are also indications that the eastward progression has continued.  The Jewish Federation of Cleveland just opened their new headquarters in Beachwood with the intent that it be accessible to the community.

If you go to

http://drawthelinemidwest.org/ohio/competition/

Click on Go to District Builder, and click on Enter As A Guest, click on any plan, View Plan and then zoom to the area.

If you select Pan, and then Shift -Left Mouse Drag, you have a marquee zoom.   Zoom close enough and it will show individual blocks.  In the upper left under Set Map Layers, you can specify to display the Black VAP%.  The area shows up as somewhat of an island on both sides of Mayfield, but not as white as the area just east of Case Western Reserve.

The slider in the upper right can be used to make an underlying street map visible.

To Torie, Case Western Reserve is just inside the Cleveland city limits to the west of Cleveland Heights.

[minionofmidas]

[TJ in Oregon]

Beachwood is known as "the Jewish" suburb as a stereotype today, though there are a decent number of Jews in most of the eastern suburbs. Glennville is close to 100% black so I doubt there is any appreciable number of Jews there today.

The area just to the east of Case is the wealthiest part of Cleveland Heights, especially near Fairmount and along the Shaker Heights border. In general in Cleveland Heights, the further south you go, the rich and whiter the neighborhood is.