Gov. Tim Pawlenty expected to announce exploratory committee today...

[Joe Biden 2020]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/03/21/pawlenty-expected-to-announce/

Since, apparently, Newt Gingrich isn't officially in, yet, Tim becomes the first major candidate to jump into the race.

[feeblepizza]

Hmmm....I doubt we'll ever elect a President with a mullet. Not even Republicans.

[Bull Moose Base]

Nitpicks- Pawlenty cut off his mullet and exploratory isn't the same as officially in.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the announcement:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-B8BKJV6Xyg    (He doesn't actually get around to announcing it until the 1:30 mark.)

Here's the new website:

http://www.timpawlenty.com/

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

He is soooooooo hideously boring......

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

If Tim Pawlenty is a "serious candidate" than Costa Rica is a "military superpower".

This guy has pretty much nothing to really distinguish him from the crowd. He claims to be a tea-partier, but he isn't very enthusiastic with his cuts, and all the cool kids are claiming to be with them anyway. He isn't even in favour of cutting defense spending (Barbour actually made himself marginally more serious by setting himself apart from the crowd by supporting that). He has no major issue to ride off of, he has no great fame, he has no charisma, he won't win.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

He isn't charasmatic and doesn't stand out from the crowd, as MBD mentioned, but I think if he modifies his game and becomes less boring with a specific issue to ride on, he might become a serious candidate.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If Tim Pawlenty is a "serious candidate" than Costa Rica is a "military superpower".

This guy has pretty much nothing to really distinguish him from the crowd. He claims to be a tea-partier, but he isn't very enthusiastic with his cuts, and all the cool kids are claiming to be with them anyway. He isn't even in favour of cutting defense spending (Barbour actually made himself marginally more serious by setting himself apart from the crowd by supporting that). He has no major issue to ride off of, he has no great fame, he has no charisma, he won't win.

BOB DOLE 2.0
He has terrible approval ratings in his own state. He is a fake Tea Partier, and has no credibility after his accent gaffe.

[jbgator]

Everyone who says he isn't a serious candidate is disagreeing with analysts and columnists across the country.  I'm with them.  He has a shot.  He could be the 08 Romney in 2012.  Depending on how well he does, it's likely he'll either win the nomination or become the frontrunner for 2016.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Everyone who says he isn't a serious candidate is disagreeing with analysts and columnists across the country.  I'm with them.  He has a shot.  He could be the 08 Romney in 2012.  Depending on how well he does, it's likely he'll either win the nomination or become the frontrunner for 2016.

"Everyone who says Fred Thompson isn't a serious candidate is disagreeing with analysts and columnists across the country."

"Everyone who says Giuliani isn't a serious candidate is disagreeing with analysts and columnists across the country."

Look, he just has absolutely nothing to his name that someone else can't claim, and he has the bonus of now moving towards "flip-floppery" like Romney. He has basically picked up Romney's weaknesses with none of the advantages.

Yes, some insiders think he can win. The fact is, outside of such circles, he can't generate significant support. He isn't sitting on top of the mountain like Romney, so he can't afford to go with the flow, and he isn't a media sensation like Huckabee or Palin so he can't just run off of "name recognition".

[Likely Voter]

got to love those Pawlenty vids...in this one he has now declared himself just like all those people who have lost their jobs, which I guess is true since he is unemployed.

Nate Silver had an interesting article and infographic charting the various candidates and Pawlenty is right in the middle, which means he is either the perfect candidate or the stands for nothing candidate. He also offered this interesting analysis:
 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Essentially Pawlenty is hovering back and waiting for other candidates to drop in support or implode and he will try to position himself all over the place to scoop up as much support as the others lose support. It is a strategy that might work. Look at Kerry in 2004, who benefited from the fight between Gephardt and Dean and came from behind to win Iowa

[California8429]

What's with the bipolar media. They've talked of the nomination since October 08 and now with BOTH Gingrich and Pawlenty as well as others like Roemer and Cain with committees, they aren't covering them...

[Napoleon]

What's with the bipolar media. They've talked of the nomination since October 08 and now with BOTH Gingrich and Pawlenty as well as others like Roemer and Cain with committees, they aren't covering them...

Who cares about a bunch of nobodies and non-factors when the whole LIBYA thing is going on?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

He's already in.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

So, when another thriller trailer?

[feeblepizza]

T-Paw is like Bob Dole minus the spellbinding charisma.

[milhouse24]

T-paw has hockey hair, therefore he will win the mullet vote!

[Bull Moose Base]

Can't remember if I posted this already: there was a poll here probably a year ago asking Republicans their choice, some 30 people voted I think.  Zero Pawlenty votes.  Still he's the only person I can imagine possibly beating Romney in the end.  I can also see him dropping out after NH though.

[Mr. Morden]

Can't remember if I posted this already: there was a poll here probably a year ago asking Republicans their choice, some 30 people voted I think.  Zero Pawlenty votes.  Still he's the only person I can imagine possibly beating Romney in the end.  I can also see him dropping out after NH though.

Mostly agree.  There isn't really much of a positive case for Pawlenty.  There's simply a negative case for all the other candidates, which leaves Pawlenty as the last man standing.  Jon Chait tries to argue that that actually makes him the frontrunner here:

http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/84855/tim-pawlenty-republican-frontrunner-2012

though I'm not quite persuaded.  When your candidacy depends on voters rejecting everyone else, then your situation is precarious.  But we'll see.  Primary races with no overwhelming frontrunner tend to be extremely unpredictable, so there's any number of ways this could go.

[big bad fab]

Pawlenty is tilting a bit more towards the various conservatives, in order to be aceeptable.
He will have time to be more moderate in the end.

He may well be the real surprise.

[Bull Moose Base]

If you think about it Pawlenty had an amazing streak of luck that was playing right into his strategy to be D-Fawlt.  Huckabee and Palin both get tangled by lucrative media careers making them less likely to run.  Pence out.  Thune out.  But vacuums suck junk in.  I do think Bachmann's populist appeal to social/cultural and fiscal extremists is a big problem for him, especially since as many others have said, it's a constant struggle for him not to bore people while her insanity is naturally compelling.  The field would get winnowed as it always does.  I do think Pawlenty would have (excepting Huckabee) the strongest chance to convert an Iowa win into frontrunner status, because he's a credible nominee and the establishment would accept him.  But if he's not ignored, he has glitches on his conservative record and something of a pardon problem waiting to be attacked by other people who covet Iowa.

I do think without a consensus alternative to himself, Romney has a chance to win the first few states but, as I've said before, I could imagine him pulling off the impressive (unprecedented?) feat of either then blowing it or else limping to the finish line.  I just think with a confident, rebellious Tea Party faction, resistance to Romney (over either healthcare, religion or authenticity) will be more persistent than it usually is to emerging winner.  I could see someone outlasting the other Romney alternatives and finding momentum late in the game,  being either a figure comparable to Jerry Brown 92 or Reagan 76 or maybe even winning.  Bachmann seems a great bet to play such a role because she already has a somewhat antagonistic relationship with the party establishment, though I'm not sure she could take it all the way to a win.  Palin is a possibility.  I even wonder if it could be someone who jumps into the race as late as 2012 after the first few primaries have already started.  Maybe even Huckabee if he suddenly thinks he could beat Obama.  Or, if he was willing to pony up his own money, maybe even TrumpBeck.

[Mr. Morden]

If you think about it Pawlenty had an amazing streak of luck that was playing right into his strategy to be D-Fawlt.  Huckabee and Palin both get tangled by lucrative media careers making them less likely to run.  Pence out.  Thune out. 

And if you want to go farther back in time, Ensign and Sanford get caught in career-ending affairs.