Poll: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker Recall Risk May Have Implications for 2012 Federal ElectionsMemphis, TN, April 21, 2010: A new statewide, scientific poll, conducted with a random sample of actual Wisconsin voters in the 2010 Governor’s Election (reliable within +/- 4.9 percentage points), finds voters in Wisconsin sharply divided on current issues related to the state’s multi-billion dollar deficit problem.
The poll, conducted by veteran polling company, Ethridge & Associates, L.L.C., a Tennessee-based firm, finds voters about evenly divided (within the poll’s margin of error) on collective bargaining for public employees (48% favor / 46% oppose) and on Governor Scott Walker’s plan to end collective bargaining (50% oppose / 47% support).
Additionally, a slight majority, 51%, of voters oppose recalling Governor Scott Walker, with 44% supporting this idea.
That is, until they consider a possible candidacy of Senator Russ Feingold, whom some are drafting to run against Walker in a recall election; then, Walker falls below 50% and ties with Feingold, 48% to 48%.
Whereas Wisconsin law requires that a Recall Petition “must contain the signatures of qualified electors equal to at least 25% of the vote cast for the office of Governor at the last gubernatorial election,” this poll finds that 37% of those who voted in the 2010 Governor’s Election are willing to sign a petition to recall Walker. Of the 44% who support recalling Walker, 83% are willing to sign their name and address to a petition to do so (44% x 83% = 37%).
On potential national implications, Ethridge said, “If Governor Scott Walker is recalled in a special recall election in early 2012, it will be a critical catalyst nationally for the Democrats going into the 2012 elections, much like Scott Brown’s victory for the Senate in Massachusetts gave Republicans a boost of enthusiasm going into the 2010 elections.
If, on the other hand, Republicans and the Tea Party movement in Wisconsin can hold this governorship, it will help the Republican Party nationally — at least somewhat — to inoculate against the possible igniting of a national Democrat trend.”
Currently, the state is divided right down the middle in party preference, with 46% identifying themselves as Republicans and another 46% identifying themselves as Democrats. Similarly, just as many voters statewide in Wisconsin support the Tea Party movement, 44%, as oppose it, 44%. Not surprisingly, the majority of Republicans (85%) support the Tea Party movement, while the majority of Democrats (87%) oppose it.
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Dr. Steven C. Ethridge, Ph.D., founder of the firm that conducted the poll, has over 30 years of experience as strategist and pollster at the federal, state, and local levels for candidates and issues, coast to coast, mostly for clients in the Southeast and the Washington, D.C. areas.
His background, prior to founding his strategy and polling firm 18 years ago, includes being an executive with The Gallup Organization, Inc.; strategic pollster with former Clinton adviser and Fox News contributor Dick Morris in the 1994 Tennessee Governor's race; polling for Senator Lamar Alexander's presidential bid; and being pollster for former U.S. Congressman Ed Bryant, among others.
An independent pollster, Ethridge has been quoted as a polling expert in numerous national publications, including The New York Times, the L.A. Times, USA Today, The Polling Report, Real Clear Politics, Bill Hobbs Report, the Free Republic, and many others. Ethridge's media polling experience began in 1991 for WREG News Channel 3 in Memphis market. Since 1995, he has conducted numerous polls for the Mid-South region’s largest daily newspaper, The Commercial Appeal.
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About the Poll
The poll was based on a statewide, random sample of n=400 telephone interviews completed April 16 and 17, 2010 among actual voters in the 2010 Governor’s Election. The reason for qualifying respondents as actual voters in the 2010 Governor’s Election was to estimate the potential of the recall petition effort achieving enough signatures.
Wisconsin law requires that a Recall Petition “must contain the signatures of qualified electors equal to at least 25% of the vote cast for the office of Governor at the last gubernatorial election . . .” The poll's results are representative and reliable within +/- 4.9 percentage points with 95% confidence.
Ethridge & Associates, L.L.C. is a nationally recognized research, strategic communication, training and coaching firm that is driven by public opinion and marketing research, both to track important trends and to help clients develop effective communication.
http://www.prlog.org/11453636-poll-wisconsin-gov-scott-walker-recall-risk-may-have-implications-for-2012-federal-elections.html
