Yemen: Saleh won't seek reelection too

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110202/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_yemen

Another one, as we can see.

Also, unlike Mubarak, said he won't hand office to a family member either.

[Silent Hunter]

That makes it four; although I doubt that will satisfy people.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

He should have watched Tunisian TV 3 weeks ago. Tomorrow the day of protest will be called...'Day of Anger'.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Mind you.... he also said that the last term would be his last, now he's holding on another 2 years...

[Likely Voter]

Although all the fear mongering over Egypt turning into another Iran is off, Yemen is another story. The Al Queda franchise there has already tried some US attacks, and they have been operating under an unfriendly government.

The US has been operating in Yemen, will the new government let us stay?

 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yemen worries me far more about a  real Islamist take over.

Egypt has an educated and pretty moderate population... Yemen... not so much.

Plus Yemen is in dire financial straits, and we know what happens when you throw a power vacuum in with financial issues...

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

There is no stability in Yemen. Unlike in Egypt, as Polnut rightly pointed out, population is much more vulnerable to such forces and there is no army like in Egypt, that can guard the system against them.

[seanobr]

If the Yemeni government unravels under pressure and, without a substantial military to maintain order, the country is plunged into anarchy, some type of Islamic rule is probably unavoidable.  The only question is whether or not the Houthi insurgency in the north or the secessionist movement in the south would take advantage of the situation to splinter the country back to its component elements, or if they could somehow surmount their divide and all coalesce under one identity.  

EDIT: The internal conflict might only persist and never reach either point, but a state collapse would exacerbate it.

While the government, motivated by self-preservation, is cognizant of the danger of Islamic extremism, I've never perceived anything but ambivalence or even sympathy from the country's population, as the number of apprehended insurgents that have been permitted to rejoin society would attest to.  American counterterrorism activity has only proceeded with the tacit complicity of Saleh's administration, and they were professing ignorance in public, so any change would immediately spell the end of that effort.  Fundamentalism is pervasive; antipathy for us has never relented; the last vestiges of the country's historical Jewish presence are being actively eradicated; and the country is inexorably running out of water, only underlining its economic and social desperation.  There is no reason to be optimistic about what might emerge from such turmoil, and I think it would be in everyone's best interest for Saleh to remain in control until the next election.  

I have only broadly followed the situation in Yemen, but the Houthi insurgency is a Shia movement that, depending on your interpretation, is either trying to conquer the country and rule by religious fiat at Iran's instigation, or fighting the government because of repression and alienation.  The south would like to reassert its independence, and there have been longstanding allegations of al Qaeda involvement, but prominent individuals within the movement refute the charge and claim Saleh has simply been soliciting American support to prevent the country from shattering.  I would already characterize Yemen as a failed state, but such a fracturing would probably result in a complete breakdown of social order and governance in both halves, obstructing any attempt to thwart al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.  If the country began to disintegrate, you would almost certainly see a corresponding and indiscriminate escalation in America's drone program to blunt as much of the danger as possible.  We could anticipate such a situation by putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to intervene if it should be required, as they already have to suppress a Houthi uprising in an aerial and border campaign in December of 2009.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

2013 is a ways off. I don't exactly trust Saleh on this one.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Biggest demonstrations today, 20,000 anti-Saleh.

And, maybe inspired by Egypt there has been a pro-demonstration too.

Both demonstrations didn't meet themselves so far. Both wanted to also take the Tahrir Square in Sanaa, but pros decided not to in order to avoid confrontations.

On a French channel there has also been reports of fights in the south.