When will the unemployment rate fall below 9%?

[Mr.Phips]

Ive done some calculations and if 250,000 jobs are created per month from now until January 2012, it could fall below 9% then.

If just 200,000 a month are created, it will take until January 2013. 

[Inverted Things]

You're overlooking the easiest way for the unemployment rate to go under 9%:  If many of these people stop actively seeking employment.

[muon2]

You're overlooking the easiest way for the unemployment rate to go under 9%:  If many of these people stop actively seeking employment.

Welcome back. Long time, no see.

[Inverted Things]

You're overlooking the easiest way for the unemployment rate to go under 9%:  If many of these people stop actively seeking employment.

Welcome back. Long time, no see.

Thanks.  In the interim, I got older and bitter.  How about you?

[muon2]

You're overlooking the easiest way for the unemployment rate to go under 9%:  If many of these people stop actively seeking employment.

Welcome back. Long time, no see.

Thanks.  In the interim, I got older and bitter.  How about you?

I'm about the same as when you left, but now I moderate the Political Geography board where redistricting will be the main focus for the next year.

[phk]

Ive done some calculations and if 250,000 jobs are created per month from now until January 2012, it could fall below 9% then.

If just 200,000 a month are created, it will take until January 2013. 

Net job creation, you mean.

[feeblepizza]

2014, one year after Obama is safely pushed out of office.

[Sam Spade]

The problem with the calculation is that if the economy actually regains such steam to where 250,000 jobs are created every month, all those who are currently not looking and have dropped out of the labor force will start looking again, thus causing the unemployment rate to not drop as much.  As noted above, it would be easier to just get people to stop looking, but even that won't change people's perception greatly.

Of course, the chances of all of this happening is quite low in the near future, for multiple reasons (well, maybe not the stop looking part), but one particularly to look for very soon are the effects of the major commodity price increases of the last few months hitting producers and suppliers, etc. down the line.

[Mr.Phips]

The problem with the calculation is that if the economy actually regains such steam to where 250,000 jobs are created every month, all those who are currently not looking and have dropped out of the labor force will start looking again, thus causing the unemployment rate to not drop as much.  As noted above, it would be easier to just get people to stop looking, but even that won't change people's perception greatly.

Of course, the chances of all of this happening is quite low in the near future, for multiple reasons (well, maybe not the stop looking part), but one particularly to look for very soon are the effects of the major commodity price increases of the last few months hitting producers and suppliers, etc. down the line.

Ive assumed that150,000 people will enter the labor force each month.  I think this is a fair assumption since the labor force participation rate is at a near record low and those people will be coming back soon.

[Sam Spade]

The problem with the calculation is that if the economy actually regains such steam to where 250,000 jobs are created every month, all those who are currently not looking and have dropped out of the labor force will start looking again, thus causing the unemployment rate to not drop as much.  As noted above, it would be easier to just get people to stop looking, but even that won't change people's perception greatly.

Of course, the chances of all of this happening is quite low in the near future, for multiple reasons (well, maybe not the stop looking part), but one particularly to look for very soon are the effects of the major commodity price increases of the last few months hitting producers and suppliers, etc. down the line.

Ive assumed that150,000 people will enter the labor force each month.  I think this is a fair assumption since the labor force participation rate is at a near record low and those people will be coming back soon.

The 150,000 number is pretty close to the number of persons who enter the labor force every month excluding the actions of those already in or out of the labor force

Henceforth, if people outside of this 150K number start reentering the labor force, the number of jobs created must be larger than 150K otherwise the unemployment number will continue to rise.

However, we're really swinging at windmills here for now since the % of adults in the labor force has shown no signs of increasing for a long while (it's been pretty stable for the last six months) and went down last month.

[Mr.Phips]

The problem with the calculation is that if the economy actually regains such steam to where 250,000 jobs are created every month, all those who are currently not looking and have dropped out of the labor force will start looking again, thus causing the unemployment rate to not drop as much.  As noted above, it would be easier to just get people to stop looking, but even that won't change people's perception greatly.

Of course, the chances of all of this happening is quite low in the near future, for multiple reasons (well, maybe not the stop looking part), but one particularly to look for very soon are the effects of the major commodity price increases of the last few months hitting producers and suppliers, etc. down the line.

Ive assumed that150,000 people will enter the labor force each month.  I think this is a fair assumption since the labor force participation rate is at a near record low and those people will be coming back soon.

The 150,000 number is pretty close to the number of persons who enter the labor force every month excluding the actions of those already in or out of the labor force

Henceforth, if people outside of this 150K number start reentering the labor force, the number of jobs created must be larger than 150K otherwise the unemployment number will continue to rise.

However, we're really swinging at windmills here for now since the % of adults in the labor force has shown no signs of increasing for a long while (it's been pretty stable for the last six months) and went down last month.

If the numbers of adults entering the labor force fell last month, why did the unemloyent rate rise.