US House Redistricting: New Jersey

[Verily]

Yes, we have an independent commission, but they did a ridiculous incumbent protection map last time and will probably do another one this time. This time we get some fun, though, because NJ is losing a seat. Runyan will almost certainly be the one to have his career cut short as he is the most junior member. Even if the GOP were drawing the map, it's hard to see how they could draw fewer than 7 Democratic districts anyway, so the loser has to be a Republican. An alternative map would eliminate Lance instead, but I decided on this map as Lance has more seniority than Runyan.

Also, Holt's district shifts dramatically from Central Jersey to South Jersey, but it's a lot safer now and still contains his home in Princeton.

And, yes, Middlesex County is an absurd gerrymander. Look at what the commission did to Monmouth County last time.

The old NJ-13 becomes NJ-04. The old NJ-04 is now NJ-03. Runyan lives in NJ-12, though, in Mount Laurel. NJ-04 is 54% Hispanic (more than in 2000), and NJ-10 is 54% black.

All incumbents but Runyan live in their districts.

Andrews lives in Haddon Heights, Camden County
LoBiondo lives in Ventnor City, Atlantic County
Smith lives in Hamilton, Mercer County
Holt lives in Princeton, Mercer County
Pallone lives in Long Branch, Monmouth County
Lance lives in Clinton, Hunterdon County
Pascrell lives in Paterson, Passaic County
Frelinghuysen lives in Morristown, Morris County
Payne lives in Newark, Essex County
Sires lives in West New York, Hudson County
Rothman lives in Fair Lawn, Bergen County
Garrett lives in Wantage, Sussex County

Fun fact: Both Rothman and Garrett are natives of Englewood, where I live. Rothman still represents the city.

North Jersey:




South Jersey:

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Holt lives in Hopewell, according to Wikipedia, which you've put in NJ-07.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

LOL@that district 11. What's the point of it? Morris County plus a few immediate surrounding areas would be easily safe for Frelinguysen or whatever his name is.

[Verily]

The snaky district 11 is designed to take in extra population. It is drawn to take in the Republican areas of central Union County, which are isolated by Democratic areas. Since no Rep lives in Middlesex County, despite it having more than a whole district of population, it's the one that gets sliced and diced.

Take a look at NJ-06 and NJ-12 right now if you don't think the commission might do something like that.


Anyway, here is a map if the commission actually did fair redistricting:

North Jersey:




South Jersey:




NJ-01: Open seat, around D+3
NJ-02: LoBiondo, around R+5
NJ-03: Pallone, around R+10 (Smith would probably run here; Pallone would retire or move to NJ-06)
NJ-04: Sires, around D+22; narrowly plurality Hispanic
NJ-05: Garrett and Lance, around R+15
NJ-06: Open seat, around D+10, narrowly minority-majority (Asians largest non-white group)
NJ-07: Open seat, around D+10
NJ-08: Pascrell and Rothman, around D+15
NJ-09: Andrews and Runyan, around D+10
NJ-10: Payne, around D+27, plurality black
NJ-11: Frelinghuysen, around R+10
NJ-12: Holt and Smith, around D+7 (Smith would move to NJ-03)

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Holt lives in Hopewell, according to Wikipedia, which you've put in NJ-07.

This is true, but my source is slightly more reliable.

http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/olm111.html

I really don't think Frelinghuysen would appreciate having places like Woodbridge and South Plainfield in his district. And since most of the (relative) population loss is in North Jersey, we'll probably see a Republican vs. Democrat matchup in North Jersey, probably Holt vs. Lance or Frelinghuysen vs. Pascrell.

[Rowan]

Isn't Runyan from Mount Laurel?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Isn't Runyan from Mount Laurel?

Last time I checked, yes.

[Verily]

Isn't Runyan from Mount Laurel?

Last time I checked, yes.

Slip of the... finger? I had the location right.