What if Palin, Huckabee, and Gingrich don't run?

[ej2mm15]

?

[Bull Moose Base]

Who does she endorse?

[Ronnie]

I really don't understand the question.  Obviously, if they don't run, other people would, and out of those other people, someone would win the nomination.

[Sewer]

Mittens would be happy.

[Progressive]

It would actually be a most interesting scenario.


Mitt Romney would likely be the frontrunner and there would be several other candidates. Eventually the tea party would likely unite behind one maybe Barbour, Thune, or someone else.

It would be "establishment" vs. the new Republicans

[feeblepizza]

Palin and Huckabee definitely aren't running, but if Gingrich doesn't run...

Romney would most likely be a shoo-in.

[TomC]

Romney would most likely be a shoo-in.

[Yelnoc]

Then the unkowns have more initial traction.  Daniels, Thune, Pawlenty, or someone else gets elected.  Money isn't the only factor in elections.

[milhouse24]

Haley Barbour all the Way!!!

[Ben Romney]

John Thune and Chris Christie would be the best ticket for 2012
it would be Obamas worst nightmare

[claves]

It seems like a rhetorical question.

What concerns me is that there seems to be a dearth of political talent for the 2012 elections on the republican side. Palin and Gingrich are both politically obsolete because they have near-100% exposure (aka - everybody knows who they are already) and low approval numbers among independents. Even a lot of Republicans don't like them. The problem with Romney is that he is an "establishment republican" - the kind that is willing to compromise on conservative platform issues in order to gain power. Most conservatives these days want candidates that are really committed to the ideals of Conservatism; we're kind of done with political moderacy.

To date, I just don't see anyone rising in the ranks of the Republicans who can truly win the Presidency. Even if Obama has a 42% approval rating, the Republicans are going to have to put someone on the bill who is impressive. Otherwsie, Obama will win a second term. A perfect example of this is Bush Jr. in 2004: his approval ratings were low, but the best the Dems could do was Sen. Kerry. Same goes for Clinton when Bob Dull ran against him.

I wish I could give you a great pick for the republican presidential nomination in 2012, but I can't. None of them impress me. (And I want to be impressed!)

[ragevein]

Three words:  President-elect Romney

[Bull Moose Base]

I disagree that the hypothetical would be good for Romney.  Right now, I'd say Palin's candidacy is almost in the perfect spot for Romney.  She attracts enough support and attention to make it hard for anyone new to get traction, yet enough skepticism so that he probably, in the eyes of most voters, looks more electable and up-to-the-job by contrast  But what if the three above passed on the race and all three endorsed one newcomer like Pawlenty, Daniels or Thune instead?  Seems worse for Romney.

[Poundingtherock]

Joe,

Would you say that if it were just Palin, Romney, Pawlenty/Daniels?  That seems to be Romney's nightmare.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

[sparkey]

Ron Paul's face is a good response to any question.

[Bull Moose Base]

Joe,

Would you say that if it were just Palin, Romney, Pawlenty/Daniels?  That seems to be Romney's nightmare.

I might think so before the new rules which will lead to much more proportional allocation of delegates.  That reduces the chance Palin succeeds because the two candidates who are not her can more easily join forces to reach a majority, and I think that's the more realistic merger.  For example, Daniels has some success but falls short on Super Tuesday, then endorses Romney and instructs his delegates to support him.  I think Romney's worst case is just quickly landing in one-on-one with someone who energizes the base like Christie (I don't think he'll run) or Pence (gubernatorial run seems more likely).  If he gets down to himself and Palin... I'd bet on concerns  about her qualifications ultimately outweighing concerns about RomneyCare, but it depends on how she presents, the shape of the economy, the media, and a bunch of factors.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Ron Paul's face is a good response to any question.

I must agree.

[5280]

Ron Paul or Gary Johnson....then Romney

[countryglc]

It is to early to even guess about a candidate, if that were the case.  To much will happen and there could be candidates that one would never think of running.