Bush takes back the lead in New Hampshire

[zachman]

Don't forget the independents. If the republicans/democrats = 1.33:1 the independents here are at least above 1 and probably over 1.5.

[The Vorlon]

Don't forget the independents. If the republicans/democrats = 1.33:1 the independents here are at least above 1 and probably over 1.5.

I am going from memory here (I may be a point or so out), but last i recall in New Hamphire voter registrations are:

37% Independent
36% Republican
27% Democrat

One of the few states where Independent is the largest block..

"Live free or die!!"

[dunn]

Don't forget the independents. If the republicans/democrats = 1.33:1 the independents here are at least above 1 and probably over 1.5.

I am going from memory here (I may be a point or so out), but last i recall in New Hamphire voter registrations are:

37% Independent
36% Republican
27% Democrat

One of the few states where Independent is the largest block..

"Live free or die!!"

not bad.
November 2002 figures: 690,159 registered voters -- 25.6% Dem., 36.7% Rep., 37.7% unaffiliated

[The Vorlon]

Its important to remember that while elections are primarily a referendum on the incumbent, that is only presuming that the opponent has passed some minimum bars on national security, the economy, and leadership.

Read here for more:

 http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote_Mar804.html

Quote:

Despite what you'll hear in some quarters, the prospects for the President's re-election are NOT just about the incumbent.

America's judgment on the job Mr. Bush has done is key, but John Kerry has to clear a series of bars on national security credibility; likeability; character; and being a potential good steward of a good economy if he is going to have a chance to win -- no matter what kind of campaign BC04 runs or what people think of the President.

So -- as we have written before -- the talking points, the surrogates, the Web sites, the research and (soon) the campaign ads from the GOP side are largely geared toward making sure that Kerry gets nowhere near those bars in the eyes of the American people.

Late winter and early spring, in other words, are the times to strangle the baby in the crib. (How's that for a Monday metaphor to get your attention?)

The Old Line

I sort of agree with you.

If the President is judged by a strong majority of the population to be competent at national security, and decent on the economy.. then the election is almost all over.. it just about doesn't matter who the other candidate is...

In 1984 against Reagan the Democrats really had just about ZERO chance..

When the President does not reach the point of general trust and admiration that Reagan achieved, then it becomes a more interesting race.

Many Americans have substantial doubts about Bush, I think it is fair to say.  For them the question then becomes "How does Kerry compare"...?

Bush still gets pretty decent grades from the electorate on National Security, if the GOP can convince the voters that Kerry if a flip flopping spineless weak on National security wimp, then Kerry fails the threshold test, and becomes unelectable - people will default back to Bush in that case.

Bush's greatest strength in this election is that I think every American, Republican and Democrat alike, believes that every day at his national security briefing he askes the NSA "How Many Terrorists did we kill yesterday...?" and that the only time Bush will EVER accept "None Sir" as an answer will be when the full answer is "None Sir - they are all dead now..."

I have doubts about Bush, I am not sure he had always made good choices.

But the man can pull the trigger when he has to (and perhaps when he shouldn't)

Kerry has not convinced me of that yet the he can ever pull the trigger.

[Gustaf]

Its important to remember that while elections are primarily a referendum on the incumbent, that is only presuming that the opponent has passed some minimum bars on national security, the economy, and leadership.

Read here for more:

 http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/TheNote/TheNote_Mar804.html

Quote:

Despite what you'll hear in some quarters, the prospects for the President's re-election are NOT just about the incumbent.

America's judgment on the job Mr. Bush has done is key, but John Kerry has to clear a series of bars on national security credibility; likeability; character; and being a potential good steward of a good economy if he is going to have a chance to win -- no matter what kind of campaign BC04 runs or what people think of the President.

So -- as we have written before -- the talking points, the surrogates, the Web sites, the research and (soon) the campaign ads from the GOP side are largely geared toward making sure that Kerry gets nowhere near those bars in the eyes of the American people.

Late winter and early spring, in other words, are the times to strangle the baby in the crib. (How's that for a Monday metaphor to get your attention?)

The Old Line

I sort of agree with you.

If the President is judged by a strong majority of the population to be competent at national security, and decent on the economy.. then the election is almost all over.. it just about doesn't matter who the other candidate is...

In 1984 against Reagan the Democrats really had just about ZERO chance..

When the President does not reach the point of general trust and admiration that Reagan achieved, then it becomes a more interesting race.

Many Americans have substantial doubts about Bush, I think it is fair to say.  For them the question then becomes "How does Kerry compare"...?

Bush still gets pretty decent grades from the electorate on National Security, if the GOP can convince the voters that Kerry if a flip flopping spineless weak on National security wimp, then Kerry fails the threshold test, and becomes unelectable - people will default back to Bush in that case.

Bush's greatest strength in this election is that I think every American, Republican and Democrat alike, believes that every day at his national security briefing he askes the NSA "How Many Terrorists did we kill yesterday...?" and that the only time Bush will EVER accept "None Sir" as an answer will be when the answer full answer is "None Sir - they are all dead now..."

I have doubts about Bush, I am not sure he had always made good choices.

But the man can pull the trigger when he has to (and perhaps when he shouldn't)

Kerry has not convinced me of that yet the he can ever pull the trigger.

Good points. Personally, I think Kerry cannot aviod pulling the trigger and I also don't think he'll have to do it a lot. I think the whole obsession with killing people is going a little too far.

[zachman]

NH is quite a bit different from the other swing states. We aren't really interested in Bush's defense policies and the recession has not effected NH. Our take on Bush is for the Republicans is  'yeah he is a good guy' and for the democrats 'what was Bush thinking? The guy only thinks about his reelection.' NH will be determined by its independents. I think about 1/4 of them are essentially sworn Republicans, who vote Republican every time, so Kerry needs to win the remaining 3/4th.

[The Vorlon]

Don't forget the independents. If the republicans/democrats = 1.33:1 the independents here are at least above 1 and probably over 1.5.

I am going from memory here (I may be a point or so out), but last i recall in New Hamphire voter registrations are:

37% Independent
36% Republican
27% Democrat

One of the few states where Independent is the largest block..

"Live free or die!!"

not bad.
November 2002 figures: 690,159 registered voters -- 25.6% Dem., 36.7% Rep., 37.7% unaffiliated

Ok.. I wasn't dead on.. but I was in the +/- 3% margin of error..

[Ben.]

I seem to remember that if all the people who voted in the NH Democratic primary (around 200,000) plus around 30,000 more voted for Kerry in November that would win the state for the Dems…

Now this is probably flawed logic but I doubt those who voted in the Democratic primary (except maybe some of those who voted for Lieberman and Kucinich) would vote for someone other than Kerry…so really all Kerry needs to do is win over 30-40,000 voters…who probably didn’t vote in the primary because they couldn’t get there etc…to me Kerry’s task does not seem too difficult in NH…

[zachman]

A strong anti-Bush majority exists in NH, Kerry's challenge is to keep people from voting third party, or staying at home. If he keeps up his performance from this week they will do that.