Senate (2010): Will the Democrats pick up any GOP seats?

[Franzl]

There were several opportunities, but by now it seems clear that none will come to pass.

Why and how, exactly, has Hodes been a crappy candidate? I'm not doubting it, just looking for information. He looked good on paper some months ago...

I watched the Hodes vs. Ayotte debate yesterday on TV (I was quite bored...). Hodes appeared to be somewhat smarter than Ayotte....but he also strikes me as overly arrogant and his "election year change" to the anti-earmark league looks all too artificial. He's not going to buck the trend in 2010 the way I see it....even if NH looks like the best chance for a DEM pick-up anyway.

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Arrogance destroys very intelligent candidates.

[Ogre Mage]

I doubt we will.  Carnahan and Conway are the strongest candidates, but they are in difficult states even without taking the political environment into the equation.  Carnahan strikes me as slightly more likely to win because MO has some solid urban centers and McCaskill showed in 2006 that MO-Sen can still be won by Democrats.  I am quite skeptical of our ability to win a KY-Sen whatever the circumstances.

[Brittain33]

Comes across as a Democratic partisan and not very personable, from what I've read on this site and others.  Wrong profile for this year, especially for NH.

The one ad I saw showed him comparing Washington politicians to contestants in a pie-eating contest with their spending, had him calling himself a fiscal conservative, and didn't mention the D word at all.

[Niemeyerite]

I still think Conway will win. call me crazy, but I think he will finally be able to keep democrat voters with him (polls show paul with 20-25% of their votes).

[RainMan05]

Comes across as a Democratic partisan and not very personable, from what I've read on this site and others.  Wrong profile for this year, especially for NH.

The one ad I saw showed him comparing Washington politicians to contestants in a pie-eating contest with their spending, had him calling himself a fiscal conservative, and didn't mention the D word at all.

It was wildly laughable at that.

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I still think Conway will win. call me crazy, but I think he will finally be able to keep democrat voters with him (polls show paul with 20-25% of their votes).

Conway will lose like Dan Mongiardo in 2004. A small loss but still a loss.

Carnahan, however, I can see winning.

[RainMan05]

I still think Conway will win. call me crazy, but I think he will finally be able to keep democrat voters with him (polls show paul with 20-25% of their votes).

Conway will lose like Dan Mongiardo in 2004. A small loss but still a loss.

Carnahan, however, I can see winning.

Carnahan would have likely won in a neutral environment. The wave will push Blunt over the top.

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The wave is throw the insiders out. Just look at primaries on both sides it's obvious.

If I have ever seen an insider, it would be Roy Blunt.

[RainMan05]

The wave is throw the insiders out. Just look at primaries on both sides it's obvious.

If I have ever seen an insider, it would be Roy Blunt.

The environment is throw-the-insiders-out. The wave is anti-Democratic.

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No, it's anti DC.

Look at what happened to Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle.

It's if you're in DC. That's the wave.

Since more Democrats are in power, this wave has been misinterpreted.

[Franzl]

No, it's anti DC.

Look at what happened to Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle.

It's if you're in DC. That's the wave.

Since more Democrats are in power, this wave has been misinterpreted.

Don't confuse primaries with a general election.

[RainMan05]

No, it's anti DC.

Look at what happened to Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle.

It's if you're in DC. That's the wave.

Since more Democrats are in power, this wave has been misinterpreted.

I have to disagree. A wave is inherently partisan. If it were anti-incumbent, Vitter and Burr and other Republicans would be going down or in tight races right now. I don't think a few isolated primaries can be considered a wave. This thing happens every cycle, Toomey just barely failed in 2004 and Laffey just barely failed in 2006. The establishment has in a sense been weakened but Republican incumbents aren't exactly in trouble when they face Democratic opponents.

[Psychic Octopus]

Nope, not in this environment. I hate giving short answers, but it is ulitmately pointless to explain why the Democrats won't pick up a seat when the trends, polls, and predictions do a better job showing why then anyone.

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No, it's anti DC.

Look at what happened to Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle.

It's if you're in DC. That's the wave.

Since more Democrats are in power, this wave has been misinterpreted.

Don't confuse primaries with a general election.

I'm not. But these people that are voting this year are willing to throw anyone out- on both sides- if they are "insiders".

While there is some evidence that Democrats in particular are feeling this, a well-planned Democratic attack could break through.

[RainMan05]

No, it's anti DC.

Look at what happened to Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle.

It's if you're in DC. That's the wave.

Since more Democrats are in power, this wave has been misinterpreted.

Don't confuse primaries with a general election.

I'm not. But these people that are voting this year are willing to throw anyone out- on both sides- if they are "insiders".

While there is some evidence that Democrats in particular are feeling this, a well-planned Democratic attack could break through.

A Democratic 'attack' is out of the question, they'll be fortunate to get their triage at this point.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

New Hampshire has the best odds on InTrade, followed by Kentucky.

[-]

Feingold is gone.

Boxer and Murray will both survive.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The wave is throw the insiders out. Just look at primaries on both sides it's obvious.

If I have ever seen an insider, it would be Roy Blunt.

Roy Blunt is also very Conservative on every issue and so he managed to rally the base of the MO GOP behind him and his conservative positions versus Obama. Something that if Norton, Grayson and Lowden had done, we wouldn't have Buck, Paul or Angle as GOP candidate. Burr also avoided a primary challenge and so did Rob Portman. Both are establishment but have very conservative voting records. Blunt's challenger fissled because Blunt succeeding in establishing his conservative credentials with the GOP primary electorate on the issues Obama pushed (HCR, Cap and Trade, Comprehensive immigration Reform, Card Check, and Tax hikes via expiration)

As for the the general election, I will bet you a majority of Missourians oppose all of them except maybe the latter (and that depends on the wording of the question in the poll). To paraphrase Blunt, "Obama is making my job (referring to winning the seat) much easier".

[Sam Spade]

No, it's anti DC.

Look at what happened to Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle.

It's if you're in DC. That's the wave.

Since more Democrats are in power, this wave has been misinterpreted.

Don't confuse primaries with a general election.

I'm not. But these people that are voting this year are willing to throw anyone out- on both sides- if they are "insiders".

While there is some evidence that Democrats in particular are feeling this, a well-planned Democratic attack could break through.

A Democratic 'attack' is out of the question, they'll be fortunate to get their triage at this point.

Just kinda curious why you like to spend your Saturday nights attacking real idiots on this forum.