FL: Quinnipiac University: Scott and Sink remain in a tight battle

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida Governor by Quinnipiac University on 2010-10-16

Summary: D: 44%, R: 45%, I: 2%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

This Quinnipiac poll has to be a huge GOP-friendly sample, probably Republicans+8.

Why, because adjusted to Mason-Dixon's turnout model, the results would be:

Sink: 47%
Scott: 42%

Mason-Dixon was D+3
This is either R+7 or R+8

2008 was also D+3, 2006 was R+4 and 2004 was also R+4

[Tender Branson]

Sink will probably win this, because more Dems and Independents are undecided than Republicans and Independents have a favorable view of her and it´s the exact opposite with Scott. That´s why I think most of them will end up breaking Sink's way.

Scott can only win if the Democrats completely mess up their turnout operation.

[Dgov]

This Quinnipiac poll has to be a huge GOP-friendly sample, probably Republicans+8.

Why, because adjusted to Mason-Dixon's turnout model, the results would be:

Sink: 47%
Scott: 42%

Mason-Dixon was D+3
This is either R+7 or R+8

2008 was also D+3, 2006 was R+4 and 2004 was also R+4

So in other words, Quinnipac has the more accurate turnout model, given that Mason-Dixon is assuming the same electorate as 2008?  Good to know.

[Tender Branson]

This Quinnipiac poll has to be a huge GOP-friendly sample, probably Republicans+8.

Why, because adjusted to Mason-Dixon's turnout model, the results would be:

Sink: 47%
Scott: 42%

Mason-Dixon was D+3
This is either R+7 or R+8

2008 was also D+3, 2006 was R+4 and 2004 was also R+4

So in other words, Quinnipac has the more accurate turnout model, given that Mason-Dixon is assuming the same electorate as 2008?  Good to know.

The best turnout model will probably have PPP, which should be somewhere in between both of them: something like R+2, like in their August poll.

Their poll will be out tomorrow.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Big movement towards Sink from the last Q poll.

[Dgov]

This Quinnipiac poll has to be a huge GOP-friendly sample, probably Republicans+8.

Why, because adjusted to Mason-Dixon's turnout model, the results would be:

Sink: 47%
Scott: 42%

Mason-Dixon was D+3
This is either R+7 or R+8

2008 was also D+3, 2006 was R+4 and 2004 was also R+4

So in other words, Quinnipac has the more accurate turnout model, given that Mason-Dixon is assuming the same electorate as 2008?  Good to know.

The best turnout model will probably have PPP, which should be somewhere in between both of them: something like R+2, like in their August poll.

Their poll will be out tomorrow.

I don't see how the 2010 Electorate is going to be LESS favorable to the Republicans than the 2006 one

[albaleman]

This is about right. A very close race is brewing once again in Florida.

[Associate Justice PiT]

This Quinnipiac poll has to be a huge GOP-friendly sample, probably Republicans+8.

Why, because adjusted to Mason-Dixon's turnout model, the results would be:

Sink: 47%
Scott: 42%

Mason-Dixon was D+3
This is either R+7 or R+8

2008 was also D+3, 2006 was R+4 and 2004 was also R+4

So in other words, Quinnipac has the more accurate turnout model, given that Mason-Dixon is assuming the same electorate as 2008?  Good to know.

The best turnout model will probably have PPP, which should be somewhere in between both of them: something like R+2, like in their August poll.

Their poll will be out tomorrow.

I don't see how the 2010 Electorate is going to be LESS favorable to the Republicans than the 2006 one

     There seems to be a degree of inertia in registration. Notice that the composition of the 2006 electorate was identical to the 2004 one, even though 2006 was a much worse year for Republicans.