MD: Dealing with a Kratovil victory if O'Malley is re-elected

[Skill and Chance]

Is there a way to redraw the districts in MD so that Kratovil gets a much less Republican district in 2012 while still keeping the 6 other Democratic incumbents in safe seats?  Remember also that Kratovil can't have a district that is too liberal or he will face a primary challenger from the left.  Would this map actually look more pleasant than the current gerrymander? 

[minionofmidas]

You might do some fine-tuned compromise between the 90s map (Eastern Shore plus Annapolis versus an R 2nd district in the Baltimore suburbs) and the 2000s map. But it's going to be difficult and it's going to be ugly. Or you give him part of the city of Baltimore, although you'd still have to be careful what you do to the second.

[Verily]

Yes. There have been some maps dealing with this possibility. The key is to put Frederick and Hagerstown into MD-08, then stretch MD-01 into MontCo. Not too hard to get it to 55% or so Obama.

[minionofmidas]

Yes. There have been some maps dealing with this possibility. The key is to put Frederick and Hagerstown into MD-08, then stretch MD-01 into MontCo. Not too hard to get it to 55% or so Obama.

So creating some bizarre Garrett County to Suburban Baltimore seat for the old hillbilly?

EDIT: A better name for it might be "All Along the PA Line".

[Verily]

Goes further than Suburban Baltimore in my most extreme version.

Bartlett lives in Frederick, though, so this map cuts him out of his district. Somehow, I don't think the Maryland Democrats would care. (I've done less extreme ones before that only get Kratovil to 53-55%.)

Steny Hoyer lives in St Mary's County, thus the long extension down there. (Seriously, move.) The MD-02 hook north into Baltimore County takes in Cockeysville, where Ruppersberger lives; Sarbanes lives directly to the south in Towson, so the map looks weird there.



MD-02: 61% Obama
MD-08: 61% Obama
MD-03: 62% Obama
MD-01: 64% Obama
MD-05: 66% Obama
MD-07: 67% Obama, 51% black (Some of the partisan data in Baltimore City is clearly screwed up/missing, but this shouldn't affect the other districts.)
MD-04: 84% Obama, 64% black

MD-06: 62% McCain

[Skill and Chance]

Goes further than Suburban Baltimore in my most extreme version.

Bartlett lives in Frederick, though, so this map cuts him out of his district. Somehow, I don't think the Maryland Democrats would care. (I've done less extreme ones before that only get Kratovil to 53-55%.)

Steny Hoyer lives in St Mary's County, thus the long extension down there. (Seriously, move.) The MD-02 hook north into Baltimore County takes in Cockeysville, where Ruppersberger lives; Sarbanes lives directly to the south in Towson, so the map looks weird there.



MD-02: 61% Obama
MD-08: 61% Obama
MD-03: 62% Obama
MD-01: 64% Obama
MD-05: 66% Obama
MD-07: 67% Obama, 51% black (Some of the partisan data in Baltimore City is clearly screwed up/missing, but this shouldn't affect the other districts.)
MD-04: 84% Obama, 64% black

MD-06: 62% McCain

Would Kratovil even want a 64% Obama district, though?  He voted against HCR and has been endorsed by the NRA.  I don't think he would have a prayer in the D primary in a D+11 district.

[Verily]

I don't think Kratovil is nearly as conservative as his voting record suggests. He just wants to be reelected.

And he should be fine in the primary in that district. The Eastern Shore is heavily registered Democrat even though they vote Republican. And opposition would be fragmented between liberal whites in MontCo and blacks in PG and Anne Arundel Counties.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I don't think I even want to know about districts that split the eastern shore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a cleaner map, also cleaner than the current map even:



The district takes in Annapolis and parts of the heavily black portion of western Baltimore County and loses more Baltimore exurbs. Voted 51% for Obama which is probably enough for a Blue Dog from the Eastern Shore. The second is still 60% Obama and the third is still 55% black. I didn't take into account where people live because "moving" is hardly difficult anyway.

[Bacon King]

Here's my own try at a Democratic gerrymander of MD that I did in the Redistricting App thread a while back:

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Puts Kravotil in a 55% Obama district, and makes each district at least Obama+9. Doesn't even look bad. It doesn't take incumbents into effect but hey, they can just move.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's a cleaner map, also cleaner than the current map even:



The district takes in Annapolis and parts of the heavily black portion of western Baltimore County and loses more Baltimore exurbs. Voted 51% for Obama which is probably enough for a Blue Dog from the Eastern Shore. The second is still 60% Obama and the third is still 55% black. I didn't take into account where people live because "moving" is hardly difficult anyway.

Two of the suburban Baltimore representatives live within 10 miles of each other.  That is a big reason why the map is so funky today.

I think Kratovil's ideal district would be a D+2, but if he can survive 2010 in his current district, he would still be sticking around for quite a while in an R+2.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sarbanes didn't take office till after 2006 so I doubt that had much to do it. It had more to do with ensuring that there was no viable district for Bob Ehlrich to run in. Not much of an issue now, especially since his old district isn't even really viable anymore under Maryland's current population distribution.

[Verily]

Sarbanes didn't take office till after 2006 so I doubt that had much to do it. It had more to do with ensuring that there was no viable district for Bob Ehlrich to run in. Not much of an issue now, especially since his old district isn't even really viable anymore under Maryland's current population distribution.

Ben Cardin also happens to live about ten miles from Dutch Ruppersberger, although he's over the line in Baltimore.

[minionofmidas]

Here's my own try at a Democratic gerrymander of MD that I did in the Redistricting App thread a while back:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Puts Kravotil in a 55% Obama district, and makes each district at least Obama+9. Doesn't even look bad.

Or not until you look at the population distribution, anyways.